Monthly Archives - September 2013

NFL Cleveland Browns Joe Thomas

The Early Line On NFL Week 5 Betting

Heading into Monday night’s much anticipated Miami Dolphins and New Orleans Saints game, NFL favorites are 8-6 against the spread so far in NFL Week 4 betting and lead 30-29-2 ATS on the young season.

Another interesting stat about that 8-6 ATS record for favorites this week: all six of those dogs that covered the spread also won outright. It boggles my brain when I crunch the numbers on how much could have been won if I had bet the money line on every underdog on the board this weekend.

Overs are also 8-6 on the week and overs and unders are tied 31-31 on the season.

Lets take a look at the NFL Week 5 games you want to get your bets on in now before the lines move.

Buffalo Bills (3-1 ATS) at Cleveland Browns (2-2 ATS)

  • When? Thursday Night, 8:25 PM ET
  • Where? FirstEnergy Stadium
  • What are the odds for the game? Browns -4. Game Total: 41
  • What’s a good stat I should know? 4 of the last 5 meeting ended UNDER the game Total.
  • Who’s broadcasting the game? NFL Network

Is there hope for Cleveland Browns fans this season?  After beating division favorite Cincinnati Bengals there sure is.

And after a short week the Browns host a dinged up Buffalo Bills team whose dual rushing treat of CJ Spiller and Fred Jackson are both questionable.  It seems that the stars are aligning for the Browns after dumping RB Trent Richardson just over a week ago.

Fresh faced QB Brian Hoyer Brian Hoyer was able to work the play-action passes successfully this pas week.

According to ESPN Stats & Information:

  • Hoyer completed 8-of-11 play-action passes for 64 yards and a touchdown
  • The Browns have averaged 4.1 yards per rush since the Richardson trade; they averaged 3.4 in the two first games of the season

The Bills are also surprisingly playing well and are 2nd in the NFL in rushing yards per game with 152.0.  But with the likely chance that they will be giving most of the hand offs to 3rd string RB Tashard Choice this Thursday, look for QB EJ Manuel to take the offense in his hands to move the chains.

If you are looking to bet on the Browns, take them now.  The line will not get anymore favorable for you.

Detroit Lions (3-1 ATS ) at Green Bay Packers (1-2 ATS)

  • When? Sunday, 1 PM ET
  • Where? Lambeau Field
  • What are the odds for the game? Packers -7. Game Total: 52
  • What’s a good stat I should know? Green Bay has covered the spread in the last 4 meetings.
  • Who’s broadcasting the game? FOX

The odds makers have made the Packers a one-touchdown favorites over their NFC North rivals: the Lions.  The seven point spread is a point higher than their previous meeting at Lambeau Field, which ended win 27-20 victory by the home team.

The Packers have had two weeks to prepare for the Detroit Lions with their bye in week 4.  Green Bay head coach Mike McCarthy is 7-0 against the spread coming off a bye week.

Green Bay is 14-1 SU in its last 15 games when playing Detroit, and they have covered the spread in the last four games straight.
This is the first game in which the Lions are underdogs so far this season.

Detroit will have problems containing Aaron Rodgers. The Lions are 22nd defending the pass in the NFL even despite having intercepted Chicago QB Jay Cutler three times on Sunday.

Aaron has won eight of the nine games Vs. the Lions in his career with 18 touchdowns and 5 interceptions in the process.

Bet the over now.  The total is bound to go up before kickoff

Flags Raising for the NFL in London Kickoff - San Francisco 49ers Vs. Denver Broncos

NFL Betting Trends – The London Edition

Even with opponents to London franchise in the NFL, according to a recent report in the Daily Telegraph, an expansion team could call London home by the end of the decade. 

Take former Steeler Hall of Fame QB and current Fox Sports analyst Terry Bradshaw who hates the idea that teams now are forced to play in England.

"I think it’s the most disrespectful thing you can do to these teams, to make them travel over to London to promote our NFL product," Bradshaw said during an appearance on WFAN. "You’re not ever going to have a team (relocate) over there. If you’re going to do anything, go to Canada every year — could be somebody (moves) up there eventually. But I don’t get it.

"Nobody cares anything about that game," he continued. "The players don’t want to go. You can’t enjoy it. Now preseason, OK, have some fun. It’s regular season, so yeah, I don’t get it — never will."

Bradshaw fully understands what is at stake here (even if he’s wrong about a team eventually relocating there). He said so himself.

"It’s all about money, buddy," he admitted. "It’s all about money."

This Sunday the Pittsburgh Steelers and Minnesota Vikings face each other in a battle of winless teams in the storied Wembley Stadium.

Here are the NFL betting trends of former NFL games played in London to give you an edge on your bets this weekend:

  • 2007 | NY Giants 13-10 Miami Dolphins | Spread: NYG -10 |ATS Win: MIA |Game Total: 48 (under).
  • 2008 | San Diego Chargers 32-37 New Orleans Saints | Spread: SD -3 | ATS Win: NO | Game Total: 45.5 (over).
  • 2009 | New England Patriots 35-7 TB Buccaneers | Spread: NE -15.5 | ATS Win: NE | Game Total: 44.5 (under).
  • 2010 | San Francisco 49ers 24-16 Denver Broncos | Spread: SF -2.5 | ATS Win: SF | Game Total: 41.5 (under).
  • 2011 | Chicago Bears 24-18 TB Buccaneers | Spread: CHI -2 | ATS Win: CHI| Game Total: 44 (under).
  • 2012 | New England Patriots 45-7 STL Rams | Spread: NE -7 | ATS Win: NE | Game Total: 46 (over).

As the numbers tell you, the favorites have covered the spread four of the six games played with a 4-0 ATS ongoing streak by the favs.

The matchup for this Sunday has the Steelers as favorites by three points over the Vikings and the game total set at 42 points. The line opened as even money but moved three points to favor Pittsburgh because opposing QB Christian Ponder will not be starting due to a rib injury.  In his place former Patriot and Chief Matt Cassel will start.

The Vikings landing in London earlier during the week in order to avoid jet lag on Sunday, while the Steelers made the trip on early on Thursday trying to keep business as usual.

"I value normalcy in the early portions of the week from a preparation standpoint and from a practice standpoint — use of our facilities, the comforts of home if you will," Steelers Head Coach Tomlin said. "It’s purely a business trip for me personally. This is just a road game for us. We are happy to represent the NFL in international play, but in terms of what it is that we are doing, our level of focus and the things that we need to do in preparation and in play, it’s just a road game for us."

If you are wondering the betting stats for this matchup you should know the Steelers have won three games in a row against the Vikings, covering the spread in two of those.  However, the games were spread out in almost a decade as the meetings were in 2001, 2005 and 2009.

For NFL betting trends that focus on our opponents last 3 head-to-head matchups, the Steelers have won the last 3 games, while only failing to cover the spread once.  These betting trends don’t help my make a choice on this weekends winner because the games were spread out over a decade starting in 2001 and the last game being played in 2009.

Those three matchups all ended in the UNDER on the total, which considering the NFL betting trends in the previous London games could be a winning bet..

NFL Betting Pick: Bet The UNDER.

Odds To Win UFC 188: Velasquez Vs Werdum

UFC Betting Fall Futures

Global warming aside, temperatures across the nation will soon begin to drop as we quickly approach winter, one of what used to be one of four seasons. Fear not, northern-based mixed martial arts betting buffs, as always, the UFC is in action every month of the year and that means many more chances to cash in with bankroll-boosting UFC bets.

This look at the next few UFC fights on tap will help mixed martial arts betting buffs cash in far more often than not.

Wednesday, Oct 09, 2013 – UFC Fight Night 29
Jake Shields +210
Demian Maia -270
Over 4.5 -125
Under 4.5 -105

Analysis: Demian Maia (18-4) has won three straight fights but had to go the distance at UFC 156 in February in order to beat Jon Fitch via unanimous decision. Jake Shields (28-6-1-1) is coming off a split decision win over Tyron Woodley at UFC 161 in June just one fight after testing positive for a banned substance in his previous bout.

The Pick: Demian Maia wins this one handily…by second round KO if you need specifics.

Saturday, Oct 19, 2013 – UFC 166
Cain Velasquez -245
Junior Dos Santos +195

Analysis: UFC 166 is going to be a thriller MMA gamblers! Heavyweight champion Cain Velasquez (12-1) battles Junior Dos Santos (16-2) for the third time and this matchup promises to be absolutely outstanding.

You see, after Dos Santos won the first meeting against Velasquez on a stunning first round KO (punches) at UFC on FOX back in November of 2011, the reigning champ got some much-needed revenge by taking out Dos Santos in a thrilling five round unanimous decision at UFC 155 in December. Now the pair will throw down again and this matchup could very well go either way.

Velasquez comes into this bout riding a three-fight winning streak that includes a pair of wins over Antonio Bigfoot Silva. Dos Santos laid out Mark Hunt in the third round with a spinning heel kick at UFC 160 to get back in the win column after losing to Velasquez in his previous fight.

 

Saturday, Oct 26, 2013 – UFC Fight Night 30
Mark Munoz +155
Michael Bisping -185
Analysis: Michael Bisping (25-5) has lost two of his last four fights and enters this bout coming off a technical decision against Alan Belcher after poking Belcher in the eye at UFC 159 in April.
Mark Munoz (13-3) has won five of his last six fights, losing only to current middleweight champ Chris Weidman at UFC on Fuel TV in July of 2012.
The Pick: Don’t think twice here MMA gamblers, Munoz wins via decision.

Saturday, Nov 09, 2013 – UFC Fight Night 32
Dan Henderson +220
Vitor Belfort -280
Analysis: Vitor Belfort (23-10) has won two straight, since losing to Jon ‘Bones’ Jones at UFC 152 in September of 2012. Belfort stretched out Luke Rockhold with a vicious spinning heel kick and a slew of punches at UFC on FOX in May.

Dan Henderson (29-10) has lost two straight fights, but both have come via split decisions and against elite opponents in Lyoto Machida (UFC 157) and Rashad Evans (UFC 161). Prior to his last two fights, Hendo had won four straight and I like him to somehow find a way to get the much-needed win against the favored Belfort.
The Pick: Dan Henderson in an upset

So, there you have it MMA gamblers, a string of upcoming UFC bouts that are offering great chances to cash in on!