Monthly Archives - October 2013

Expert NFL Picks Week 4 Baltimore Battles Cleveland in AFC North Showdown

NFL Week 9 Match-ups

The Patriots, Packers, Colts and Cleveland Browns are all looking for wins this coming weekend. Thanks to this insightful betting analysis on all four teams’ Week 9 contests, NFL gridiron gamblers everywhere are going to get the expert insight they’ll need in order to make a quartet of well-informed picks.

Let’s get started in the northeast where the Pats will host the inconsistent Pittsburgh Steelers.

Pittsburgh at New England
The New England Patriots are 7 point favorites over the Pittsburgh Steelers in the NF Week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 4:20PM
Gillette Stadium, One Patriot Place Foxborough
Boston, Massachusetts

 

The Pittsburgh Steelers (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) had their modest two-game winning streak snapped in its shocking 21-18 Week 8 loss to Oakland as a 2.5-point road favorite no less.

The New England Patriots (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) are coming off a concrete 27-17 Week 8 win over Miami while covering the spread as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Analysis: Somewhere in the neighborhood of 70% of NFL gamblers like the Patriots to cover the spread against the reeling Steelers, but something tells me the Steelers are the upset special pick of the week in this contest and their trends back up my theory.

Pittsburgh is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games against a team with a winning home record while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last half-dozen games against their AFC counterparts. Last but not least, the Underdog in this series is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. Say it with me now… Pittsburgh covers.

The Pick: Pittsburgh +7 Points

Baltimore at Cleveland
The Baltimore Ravens are 2.5 point favorites over the Cleveland Browns in week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 4:20PM
FirstEnergy Stadium, 100 Alfred Lerner Way Cleveland
Cleveland, Ohio

 

The Baltimore Ravens (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) have lost two straight games while the Cleveland Browns (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS) have dropped three in a row. Now, someone’s getting back in the win column while the loser is going to be left looking for more answers.

Baltimore is coming off a 19-16 loss to Pittsburgh on Oct. 20 as a 2.5-point road dog while Cleveland suffered a crushing 23-17 loss to Kansas City as a 7-point road dog on Sunday after seriously pushing the league’s only remaining unbeaten team.

Game Analysis: Unfortunately, the Browns are looking at another loss, if for no other reason than the fact that Baltimore is absolutely desperate, not to mention, well-rested.

The Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meeting against the Browns and the road team in this AFC North divisional battle is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings. Baltimore wins what looks like a classic field goal game waiting to happen.

The Pick: Baltimore -2.5 Points

Indianapolis at Houston
The Indianapolis Colts are 2.5 road favorites over the Houston Texans on Sunday Night Football.
Starts: 11/03/2013 8:30PM
Reliant Stadium, Two Reliant Park Houston
Houston, Texas

 

The Indianapolis Colts (5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS) have won four of their last five games and handed the Denver Broncos their first loss of the season two weeks ago.

The Houston Texans (2-5 SU, 1-6 ATS) have lost five straight games and have named former backup Case Keenum as their new starter even though three-time pro bowler Matt Schaub is not injured any more.

Indianapolis recorded a convincing 39-33 win over Denver on Oct. 20 as a 6-point home underdog while Houston ‘s most recent loss was a heartbreaking 17-16 road loss to Kansas City as a 7-point road underdog.

Game Analysis: I smell trouble in this one for the Texans. The fact of the matter is that Indianapolis often looks like the best team in the AFC and one I fully expect to compete for the conference crown.

It’s also quite shocking to see Houston bench Schaub in favor of a guy that wasn’t good enough to get off the bench as the team’s third stringer and had to leapfrog backup T.J. Yates in order to get this job in the first place.

Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games and the Colts are 4-0 ATS in their L/4 road games against a team with a losing home record. I like Andrew Luck to lead the Colts to a resounding victory in this one, much like Peyton Manning tormented the Texans for years.

The Pick: Indianapolis -1 Point

Chicago at Green Bay
The Green Bay Packers are 10.5 points favorites over their NFC North rivals, the Chicago Bears.
Starts: 11/04/2013 8:30PM
Lambeau Field 1265 Lombardi Ave.
Green Bay, Wisconsin

 

The Chicago Bears (4-3 SU, 1-5-1 ATS) have lost three of their last four games including their heartbreaking Week 7 45-41 loss to Washington as a 1-point road favorite. They will however, enter this contest coming off a bye week, so at least, they will be well-rested.

The Green Bay Packers (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) have ripped off four straight wins and appear to be firing on all cylinders as they get set for this NFC North divisional battle. Packers are coming off a commanding 44-31 win over Minnesota on Sunday and cashed in as a 7.5-point road favorite to move to 4-0 ATS over their last four games.

Game Analysis: I like Green Bay to keep their winning ways going against a Chicago Bears team that isn’t nearly as dangerous offensively without starting quarterback Jay Cutler.

Still, these NFC North divisional battles are generally hard-fought battles that can often go down to the wire. Having said that, I don’t see that happening this time around as Green Bay lays a huge, double-digit beating on the banged-up Bears.

The Bears are 0-4 ATS in their last four games against a team with a winning record while the Favorite in this longtime rivalry is a pristine 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings. Back the Pack for the convincing win!

The Pick: Green Bay -11 Points

Bet On Houston Vs. Dallas In My NFL Lock Pick

Here’s The Scoop On Week 9 Football Betting Picks

NFL superstars Dez Bryant, Cam Newton and Drew Brees will all take the field looking to lead their respective teams to victory in a trio of Week 9 football betting contests that are all in the spotlight in this triumvirate of expert picks.

The Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings will both look to bounce back from Week 8 losses when they battle in Texas while Cam Newton and the Carolina Panthers will look to put the clamps on the struggling Atlanta Falcons when they square off in North Carolina . Last but not least, Brees and the New Orleans Saints will look to hand Geno Smith and the New York Jets their second straight humbling loss when they square off in the Big Apple.

Here’s the scoop on all three Week 9 football betting picks.

Minnesota at Dallas
The Dallas Cowboys are 10 point favorites over the Minnesota Vikings
Starts: 11/03/2013 1:00PM
AT&T Stadium One, Legends Way
Arlington, Texas

 

The Minnesota Vikings (1-6 SU, 2-5 ATS) have lost three straight games including their convincing 44-31 Week 8 loss to Green Bay as a 7.5-point home dog.

The Dallas Cowboys (4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS) had their modest two-game winning streak abruptly halted in its thrilling 31-30 Week 8 loss to Detroit , though they did cover the spread as a 3-point road dog to improve to a perfect 4-0 ATS over their last four games.

Now both teams are looking to get a much-needed victory in this contest, but I think it’s a near-lock the Cowboys will win this game straight-up. The Cowboys are playing at home and they’re semi-desperate to not let any of their division rivals catch up to them in what has shaped up to be a stunningly weak NFC East this season.

Nevertheless, I do like the Vikings to get the ATS victory in this contest after seeing them put 31 points on the board against Green Bay last weekend. While the Vikes do allow nearly 10 points per game more than the Cowboys, they only average 5.5 fewer points per game offensively, not to mention the fact that Minnesota still has the best running back in the game and a guy that can go the distance every time he touches the ball in Adrian ‘All Day’ Peterson.

Minnesota is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings against Dallas and I think they’re going to keep the final score closer to a touchdown spread than a double digit one.

The Pick: Minnesota +10 Points

Atlanta at Carolina
The Carolina Panthers are 7.5 point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons in week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 1:00PM
Bank of America Stadium, 800 S. Mint St.
Charlotte, North Carolina

 

The Atlanta Falcons (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) and Carolina Panthers (4-3 SU, 4-3 ATS) are heading in opposite directions as they get set for this huge NFC South divisional battle.

The Falcons have lost four of its L/5 games including Sunday’s 27-13 Week 8 road loss to Arizona as a 2.5-point underdog.

Carolina has won three consecutive games while topping the 30-point plateau each time out. The Panthers’ latest win was a convincing 31-13 Week 8 road win over the lowly Buccaneers as a 6.5-point favorite.

Game Analysis: The Falcons had a great opportunity to take a big step toward salvaging their season last week against Arizona and they blew it big time. Now, Carolina has an opportunity to do the same and I full expect their fantastic defense to rise to the occasion in this meaningful matchup.

The Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against a team with a losing record and an impressive 5-1 ATS in their last six NFC South division matchups. The Falcons are just 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games and a dismal 1-5-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

The spread looks a bit high here, which is why, approximately 62% of online betting buffs like the Falcons to cover the spread, but I say the Panthers and Cam Newton make another bold statement that they are indeed very real this season.

The Pick: Carolina -9.5

New Orleans at NY Jets
The The New Orleans Saints are 6 point road favorites over the NY Jets in week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 1:00PM
MetLife Stadium, 102 Route 120
East Rutherford, New Jersey

 

The New Orleans Saints (6-1 SU, 5-2 ATS) bounced back nicely from their first loss of the season to pound Buffalo 35- 17 in Week 8 and easily cash in as a 10.5-point home favorite.

The New York Jets (4-4 SU, 5-3 ATS) were pounded unmercifully in their stunning 49-9 Week 8 road loss to Cincinnati while never coming close to covering the spread as a 6-point underdog.

Now, these two teams will meet in a Week 9 pairing that looks more like a mismatch than a matchup.

Game Analysis: The New York Jets are looking at taking their second straight beat-down this week and after seeing their debacle last week, I don’t think there’s much chance that Geno Smith and company will come close to covering the spread.

The Saints have been very consistent under the cool hand of Drew Brees in compiling an impressive 15-6 SU mark in their last 21 games following an SU win while also posting a fine 8-2 ATS mark in their last 10 games following a double-digit victory in their previous contest.

The Jets are 2-5 ATS in their L/7 games after giving up at least 30 points in their previous game and haven’t fared well in the month of November, going 1-5 ATS in their last sis November games.

New Orleans is simply too powerful on offense for the Jets to keep up with and I expect Rob Ryan’s defense to pressure Geno Smith into at least one costly mistake.

The Pick: New Orleans -3.5 Points

NFL - Kansas City Chiefs

NFL Week 9 Betting Odds

The Cincinnati Bengals, San Diego Chargers and undefeated Kansas City Chiefs will all look to extend their winning ways when they take to the field for their respective Week 9 NFL matchups.

Thanks to this expert NFL gridiron gambling breakdown on all three teams’ upcoming contests, pro football bettors across the globe will have a great idea of who to spend their betting bucks on in Week 9.

With Thursday’s matchup between the streaking Cincinnati Bengals and reeling Miami Dolphins on tap to start this week’s schedule, let’s get started in South Beach.

NFL Week 9 Betting Odds

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
The Cincinnati Bengals are 2 point favorites over the Miami Dolphins in week 9.
Starts: 10/31/2013 8:20PM
Sun Life Stadium, 347 Don Shula Drive Miami Gardens
Miami, Florida

 

The Cincinnati Bengals (6-2 SU, 5-2-1 ATS) have won four straight games while the Miami Dolphins have dropped a polar-opposite four straight, making this Week 9 matchup a virtual lock selection, particularly with the Bengals being favored by only one point.

Cincinnati looked absolutely phenomenal in handing the Jets an overwhelming 49-9 beat-down in Week 8 to easily cover the spread as a 6-point home favorite to move to 3-1 ATS over their last four.

Miami (3-4 SU, 3-4 ATS) was beating up on New England in their AFC East battle last week – before falling completely apart in the second half and eventually losing 27-17 while failing to cash in as a 6.5-point road underdog to fall to 0-4 ATS over their last four games.

Game Analysis: There is absolutely no way I could advise any NFL gambler to back the Miami Dolphins in this contest with the way these two teams are playing.

Miami has not topped the 21-point plateau in any of their last four games while Cincinnati has not scored less than 27 points in any of their last three games.

The Bengals have also gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games following an SU win of 14 points or more while also compiling a blistering 12-4-1 ATS mark in their last 17 games overall.

The Dolphins are just 1-4 ATS in their L/5 games against a team with a winning record and the road team in this occasional AFC matchup is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings overall. Keep it simple and play the Bengals as a lock selection in this one.

The Pick: Cincinnati -1 Point

Kansas City at Buffalo
The Kansas City Chiefs are 3 point favorites over the Buffalo Bills in week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 1:00PM
Ralph Wilson Stadium, One Bills Drive Orchard Park
Buffalo, New York

 

The Kansas City Chiefs (8-0 SU, 5-3 ATS) just keep finding ways to win while the banged-up

Buffalo Bills (3-5 SU, 5-3 ATS) just can’t seem to catch a break despite the fact that the franchise is clearly heading in the right direction right now.

The Chiefs are coming off a narrow 23-17 win over Cleveland the last time out, though they fell to 0-2 ATS over their last two games by failing to cover the spread as a 7-point home favorite.

Buffalo was man-handled in its humbling 35-17 Week 8 road loss to New Orleans while seeing its modest two-game ATS winning streak come to an abrupt halt as they failed to cover the spread as a 10.5-point road underdog.

Game Analysis: Let’s get right to the point by saying the Bills are facing a major uphill battle in trying to overcome a Chiefs defense that has not allowed more than 17 points all season long.

I really like Buffalo quarterback Thaddeus Lewis, but the fact of the matter is that he’s clearly not as talented as rookie E.J. Manuel, not to mention the fact that the Bills are having a really tough time rushing the ball this season.

Kansas City will shake off its pitiful 0-6 ATS mark against the Bills in the last half-dozen meetings to win this contest outright and cover the spread with room to spare. Not only do the Chiefs have the league’s stingiest defense right now, but two key ATS trends also suggest a likely SU and ATS win with the favorite in this series going 5-2 ATS in the L/7 meetings and the road team going 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Pick: Kansas City -4.5 Points

San Diego at Washington
The San Diego Chargers and the Washington Redskins meet in the NFL week 9.
Starts: 11/03/2013 1:00PM
FedExField 1600 FedEx Way
Landover, Maryland

The San Diego Chargers (4-3 SU, 5-1-1 ATS) have won two straight games including a cakewalk 24-6 smackdown of lowly Jacksonville in Week 7 while covering the spread as a 7.5-point road favorite to move to 3-1 ATS in their last four games.

The Washington Redskins (2-5 SU, 2-5 ATS) were sitting pretty, up 21-7 against Peyton Manning and the Broncos in their Week 8 matchup. Unfortunately, things went horribly wrong for the Skins as they gave up a whopping 38 unanswered points en route to a humbling 45-21 loss while failing to cover the spread as an 11-point road dog to fall to 1-2 SU and ATS over the last three games.

Game Analysis: Now, I’m going to be straight-up and admit that I really don’t trust either one of these teams very much. However, both teams can score the ball – and they both give up their fair share of points as well.

With the Bolts and Redskins combining to put up 48.7 points per game – and allowing a combined 53.3 points per contests defensively, I think the Over is the best play for this Week 9 matchup.

The Over is an ironic 7- 1 in San Diego ‘s last 8 Week 9 games and a very consistent 18-7-1 in their last 26 road games against a team with a losing home record.

The Over is also 7-2- 1 in Washington L/10 games after allowing at least 30 points in their previous contest and with Washington allowing a whopping 30.2 points per contest, I can see the Over playing out easily in this one.

The Pick: Over 51 Total Points