NFL - Buffalo Bills

Bills’ Toronto Series Betting Pick – Falcons, Bills Head Up North

The poor Buffalo Bills are just 2-3 SU in Bills’ Toronto Series betting and haven’t exactly showcased the American version of the game against the best opponents (the CFL is this whacky version where receivers can run at the line of scrimmage and the endzone is twenty yards long). But E.J. Manuel and company have plenty to be excited about as they host the reeling Atlanta Falcons this weekend at Rogers Arena in front of what’s expected to be a near-capacity crowd.

After rolling the dice on quarterbacks you’ve never heard of like Thad Lewis and Jeff Tuel, the Bills saw their rookie quarterback return to the fold three weeks ago against Pittsburgh. Manuel was as rusty as you could possible be during a 10-23 beatdown against the Steelers but rallied nicely against the overwhelmed Jets last weekend in a 37-14 demolition. It was Buffalo’s first victory – and cover – in four games.

Atlanta Falcons (2-9) vs. Buffalo Bills (4-7)
The Buffalo Bills are 3 point favorites over the Atlanta Falcons in the NFL week 13.
Starts: 12/01/2013 4:00PM
Rogers Centre, 1 Blue Jays Way
Toronto
Canada

 

Still, Manuel has lost some of his key weapons. C.J. Spiller never ever seems to be healthy and Stevie Johnson looks like he’ll miss another game. The nice thing about Manuel is that he’s able to make plays even without his best supporting players. He threw for 245 yards and 2 touchdowns while the defense did their part, stifling the Jets at every turn. The Bills are an underappreciated defensive team, and they’ll be able to showcase how good they are against a Falcons defense that is headed even further south as the team heads north of the border.

Atlanta is tied for last place in the NFL with the equally shocking Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars. Frankly, they’re lucky to be such slim dogs in Bills’ Toronto series betting. They are a putrid 2-8 SU in their last 10 games and just 3-7 in that same span. Defensively they are completely inept, and they are extremely limited offensively without Julio Jones and a real running game.

BONUS NFL BETTING PICKS

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 1 2013
New England
Houston
NE -7.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Tampa Bay
Carolina
CAR -8.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Jacksonville
Cleveland
JAX +7
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Chicago
Minnesota
MIN -1.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Arizona
Philadelphia
ARZ +3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Atlanta
Buffalo
BUF -3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Miami
NY Jets
MIA +2
Sun, Dec 1 2013
St. Louis
San Francisco
STL +8.5

However, the real culprit in Atlanta is Matt Ryan. Before this year, almost everyone would have considered the former first overall pick an elite quarterback but he might just be the type of passer that excels when he has world beating talent around him. Without Julio Jones and Roddy White, and with Steven Jackson aging about twenty years faster than everyone else, Ryan has been completely stumped. At no point is he elevating the skill level of the players alongside him and he is mired in the worst statistical season he’s ever had.

The Falcons are also just 0-5 ATS in their last 5 roadies and just 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a cover. They were lucky to breach a large spread against New Orleans last weekend. There is literally nothing to bank on with this Falcons roster. While Ryan is subjugated to questions about how good he actually is, Buffalo will be able to see their future franchise guy excel in yet another Bills’ Toronto Series betting installment.

Bills Toronto Series Betting Pick – Buffalo -3.0

Indianapolis Colts

Can Tennessee Titans Put Another Dent In The Armor of the Colts?

Here’s a little secret about the Indianapolis Colts that people don’t want to admit – they’re not supposed to be a playoff team. When the Colts had to move on from Peyton Manning, they were in a rebuilding phase. They secured Andrew Luck and just prayed that he was as good as everyone said he’d be. The only real members of the old guard are Robert Matthis and Reggie Wayne. This is a brand new team that is young and trying to find its way.

Then Chuck Pagano and Bruce Arians proved that they were two of the best head coaches in the NFL today during a miraculous run by Indy, which finished 11-5 SU and won an inordinate amount of close games. The same thing happened in Washington. The difference? The Colts are still winning games this season but their spread record has taken a beating. Indy has gone 3-3 SU and ATS in their last 6 games, which seems fine except that those games have included three tight (and somewhat lucky) wins and three complete blowouts. This is not a reliable team. People just assume they are because of their overall winning record during the Andrew Luck era.

Tennessee Titans (5-6) vs. Indianapolis Colts (7-4)
The Colts aee 4 point favorites over their division rivals Titans in the NFL week 13.
Starts: 12/01/2013 1:00PM
Lucas Oil Stadium, 500 S. Capitol Ave.
Indianapolis, Indiana

 

A great quarterback and coach combination can make a massive difference on an NFL team. This goes without saying. The Colts are benefitting form that, but they’re also luring their betting backers in to some seriously difficult traps. Do you realize that their point differential over the course of the season is a big fat zero? That’s a huge problem when gauging how they’ll perform against the betting line, especially when your remember that this team has locked either downright shaky or outright terrible over the past two months.

Losing Wayne was a huge blow because the other receivers on this team – namely T.Y. Hilton – are so young. There’s no polish in the route running, and the whole Trent Richardson trade ended up being a disaster. Indianapolis has a good offensive line, though not a great one, but Trent hasn’t been able to exploit anything. If not for Andrew Luck, this team would be staring at a two or three win season. That’s how much of a difference he makes.  

BONUS NFL BETTING PICKS

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 1 2013
New England
Houston
NE -7.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Tampa Bay
Carolina
CAR -8.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Jacksonville
Cleveland
JAX +7
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Chicago
Minnesota
MIN -1.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Arizona
Philadelphia
ARZ +3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Atlanta
Buffalo
BUF -3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Miami
NY Jets
MIA +2
Sun, Dec 1 2013
St. Louis
San Francisco
STL +8.5

Tennessee, however, poses a problematic play because their offensive line is a mess. Chris Johnson is getting yards, but not producing the explosive plays he is mostly known for. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a decent backup quarterback, but he’s still a backup, and their 2-5 SU and 3-4 ATS record over their past 7 games is nothing to be encouraged about especially when it features recent losses to both Indianapolis and Jacksonville.

Everything about the Colts’ betting trends is positive, but I love that Tennessee is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. Though they’re 3-11-1 ATS when playing teams with a winning record, I think they’ve found the mojo that made them an exciting upstart play earlier this season. They’ve put that disheartening loss against Jacksonville behind them and came oh-so-close to beating Indy two games ago anyhow.

The Colts are a playoff team by virtue of their record, but they’re absolutely not a contender. I’m not saying that they’re bad, but the hope for them lies in future seasons. Tennessee has the type of disruptive defense that can still force teams in to bad positions even without Michael Huff at safety. Indy is also getting buried on the scoreboard or fighting back to win games at the last minute. I can’t trust a team like that. Even against Tennessee.

NFL Betting Free Pick – Tennessee +4.0

NFL Chiefs Brandon Flowers

Week 13 NFL Free Picks – Kansas City Falling Apart As It Hosts Denver

To be honest, this game is much harder to dish out a Week 13 NFL free pick than you think. The Chiefs have lost two of their best defensive players in Justin Houston (elbow) and Tamba Hali (ankle), and the former has been ruled out already. It might not matter completely because Denver’s offensive line devoured Kansas City’s front-seven when these teams met last week. Andy Reid is in a tough spot right now, but this team is still in line for a playoff spot and they should be a threat in the playoffs. I’m not sold that this is a sinking ship.

After a rip roaring start to the year, Kansas has also fallen in the NFL betting toilet. They’re just 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games, and are coming off back-to-back losses. But there is reason to hope. Alex Smith erupted last weekend 294 passing yards on 24-of-38 attempts and passed for 3 touchdowns and 1 interception. The Chargers can play well when they have some in-game momentum so I’m not going to take a lot away from them. That was an awesome matchup, and the combined losses of Houston and Hali gave San Diego the crease it needed to stay in that fight.

Denver Broncos (9-2) vs. Kansas City Chiefs (9-2)
The Denver Broncos are 5.5 point favorites on the road against the Kansas City Chiefs in week 13.
Starts: 12/01/2013 4:25PM
Arrowhead Stadium, One Arrowhead Drive
Kansas City, Missouri

 

The hope with Kansas in this matchup is two fold. They have to switch gears and unleash their offence instead of playing tight to the chest all game. That was how they played against Denver in their first meeting and it didn’t work. Alex Smith leads a capable offence with some big play makers, and the second reason Kansas has a chance is because their best corner back in Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie who seems doubtful for the matchup. If he’s not able to shutdown or limit Bowe, this Denver defense is going to have another rough game.

Obviously, Denver is a great offensive team but after blasting New England early in the first half of that Sunday Night thriller, they completely fell apart. Manning had just 150 passing yards, but was also missing Julius Thomas who seems like he’ll be back in action this weekend. Knowshon Moreno will also be available though it remains to be seen how much work he’ll be able to handle with a bruised ankle.

BONUS NFL BETTING PICKS

Date
Away
Home
Pick
Sun, Dec 1 2013
New England
Houston
NE -7.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Tampa Bay
Carolina
CAR -8.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Jacksonville
Cleveland
JAX +7
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Chicago
Minnesota
MIN -1.5
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Arizona
Philadelphia
ARZ +3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Atlanta
Buffalo
BUF -3
Sun, Dec 1 2013
Miami
NY Jets
MIA +2
Sun, Dec 1 2013
St. Louis
San Francisco
STL +8.5

I’m not thrilled with how Denver has been playing in the last few weeks. They lost a tremendous amount of momentum by being held out of the endzone against an undermanned New England team. Denver’s 2-5 ATS record when playing on the road against teams with winning home records, along with their 3-7 ATS record when playing winning teams overall at any location, gives reason to lean away from Peyton Manning.

I’m willing to believe that Kansas will pay this Week 13 NFL betting matchup with a much different approach. Alex Smith is not a stat machine but he can be scary efficient, and without a fully healthy Rodgers-Cromartie, the Denver secondary is ripe for the picking. It’s also worthwhile to point out that the betting community in general isn’t sold on the supposed demise of the Chiefs, since the action is split down the middle for this one. A lot of people are willing to take a chance on the home dogs in Week 13 NFL betting and you should too.

Week 13 NFL Betting Free Pick – Kansas City +5.5