Monthly Archives - March 2014

UConn vs Florida Final Four Betting Trends

UConn Vs. Florida Final Four Betting Trends

What a crazy March Madness. The number one seed, Florida Gators are heavily favored to become the NCAA national basketball champion while the Huskies stand in their way in the Final Four.

UConn and Florida hit the hard-court this Saturday at 6:09 PM ET at the AT&T Stadium, in Arlington, Texas.

Good news for UConn, which plays Florida. Last 4 teams to beat a team in the reg. season and then meet in Final Four all won the rematch.

— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) March 31, 2014

Over the last three months of collge basketball betting the Gators have been 30-0; their last loss going against the Huskies and since then, no team have been a challenge. So far in the tournament this year the Gators have only failed to cover the spread once.

And what can be said about the Huskies of UConn? They are this year’s darling and fan favorite after winning the last three games as underdogs.

Sorry about busting your bracket @BarackObama… We have room on our bandwagon if you’re interested

— UConn Huskies (@UConnHuskies) March 30, 2014

Connecticut Huskies vs Florida Gators
The Florida Gators are 6.5 point favorites over the Connecticut Huskies in the 2014 March Madness Final Four.
Starts: 04/05/2014 6:10PM
AT&T Stadium, 900 E Randol Mill Rd.
ArlingtonTexas

Final Four Betting Trends UConn vs Florida

Top Trends For This Matchup:

The Connecticut Huskies are:

  • 30-8 straight and 20-14-2 against the spread this season
  • 5-0-1 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
  • 13-3 ATS in their last 16 NCAA Tournament games.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS win.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
  • 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog of 7.0-12.5.
  • 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.
  • 39-18 ATS in their last 57 games as an underdog.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
  • 25-10 ATS in their last 35 neutral site games.
  • 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 neutral site games as an underdog.
  • 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 0.5-6.5.

The Florida Gators are:

  • 36-2 straight up and 17-14-2 against the spread this season
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Saturday games.
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a favorite.
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
  • 20-9 ATS in their last 29 NCAA Tournament games.
  • 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
  • 18-8 ATS in their last 26 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite.
  • 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
  • 10-3 ATS in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
  • 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite of 0.5-6.5.
  • 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a favorite of 7.0-12.5.
Elite Eight Betting Trends – Buyer Beware The Round of Death

Final Four Betting Trends – The Last Leg of the Bracket

Where Final Four betting trends lean remarkably is against the spread, where underdogs are a spry 68.4%. That’s not rock solid because sometimes the matchup is a nightmare for the dog, and the stakes are often high enough to motivate the cream to rise to the top. Underdogs are not as strong of a play on the moneyline, even though they hold a ton of value in terms of payouts, with a 43.4% return in terms of straight upsets.

This is a very specific sample size to draw overwhelming conclusions from. Last year, Louisville decimated Duke 85-63 while Michigan “upset” Florida in a 3-vs-4 matchup. Last year’s Gators were slight overachievers compared to the dominance they’ve shown this season and the Wolverines seemed outright unstoppable. That being said, the Final Four is where any lingering momentum a team playing beyond its potential shows finally peters out.

Final Four Betting Odds To Win The National Championship

  • Florida Gators -120
  • Wisconsin Badgers +400
  • Kentucky Wildcats +250
  • UConn Huskies +550

Teams that have gone 4-0 ATS up until the Final Four have run in to a brutal 34.7% success rate against the betting line in those semi-final games. That’s a Final Four betting trend that you have to remember this season as well, especially with a ton of Cinderella’s looking to bloom this coming madness. A lot of that is just logic: teams that play above their ceiling come crashing down eventual. It’s simply hard to maintain a championship tempo without the right caliber of players.

Discussing seeds is a bit of a wash in this department. The lowest seed to advance to the Final Four has actually been the 11th seed which has seen LSU, George Mason and VCU advance that far. And none of them went any further. It simply comes down to talent at that point, which is why the above trend is so strong. The lower seeds who have pushed hard, rarely get through to the Final Four. They usually lose their luster as bracket busters the weekend before.

That means that the favorites are once again going to hold nominal value in terms of betting. In the past decade, the favorites have covered in nearly 64% of their games. However, the problem there in is that oddsmakers know that  one of the habitual Final Four betting trends is the love of gamblers to hammer the favorites so there’s some built in cushion there.

Totals are a completely different scenario, and that is also a direct reaction how gamblers gamble. Everyone – from sharps to public bettors – tend to lean on the over even though games in the Final Four have a betting trend of only covering a total less than 38% of the time. That means that the best bet to usually make is to bet the moneyline favorite tied in with the under. Almost always, there’s a Final Four participant who completely falls apart and fails to do their part in pushing the point total.

Whatever you do when the Final Four finally hits us in a few weeks, remember that these trends are only guidelines. The bracket will unfold in a way that none of us predict, and at that point you have to bet the matchup. If you don’t feel like thinking too much after a sensory overload through the first four rounds, then take this sage Final Four betting advice: the trends favor the favorites and the under. It might actually just be that simple from a risk-reward standpoint.

Kentucky Wildcats vs. University of Connecticut Huskies

NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Final Odds – No. 8 Kentucky Battles No. 2 Michigan

The eight-seeded Kentucky Wildcats are finally fulfilling all of the promise that made them the nation’s top-ranked team in the preseason. Now, the ‘young gunners’ from the Bluegrass State will look to pull off another ‘upset’ when they take on the second-seeded Michigan Wolverines and cash in on the NCAA Basketball Midwest Regional Final Odds in the process.

No. 8 Kentucky (2-1 ATS) vs. No. 2 Michigan (3-0 ATS)
Saturday, March 29 at 5:05 PM ET (CBS) Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis, IN

NCAAB Odds: Kentucky -2

Why Kentucky will win this Elite Eight Matchup

The Wildcats will win this contest not only because they have far more talent, but also because they’re playing their best basketball of the season at just the right moment.

I love the way the Wildcats have had to overcome two great teams – and an arena full of on-court drama – to beat both, Wichita State and Louisville and I believe these experiences will serve them well against the Wolverines.

Kentucky has gotten a slew of solid performances from multiple players, not to mention the fact that freshman forward Julius Randle has gone all ‘beast mode’ recently, dominating both, the Shockers and Cardinals down the stretch.

Could the Wildcats Go all the way?

Of course they can…and I like them to do just that. This team is loaded with future NBA performers, has a experienced head coach in John Calipari whether you like him or not. The Wildcats also have a chip the size of the Grand Canyon on their collective shoulders right about now.

Why Michigan will win this Elite Eight Matchup

The Wolverines will win this matchup because they’re far more experienced and have just as much balance on their team if not quite the same amount of media notoriety. Michigan has four players that can all get double figures in any contest. I also love the Wolverines inside-out combo of forward Glen Robinson III and guard Nick Stauskas, the reigning Big ten Player of the Year!

Could the Wolverines go all the way?

If Michigan wins this contest over a Wildcats team that appears determined to reach the Final Four, it’s quite possible. Lest anyone forget, this team did reach the national championship game a year ago.

And the winner is…

The Kentucky Wildcats will win this game and cover the small two-point spread with room to spare. I know the Wolverines aren’t going to go away quietly and that they have the big edge in experience, but the fact of the matter is that Kentucky has at least five or six players that, despite their youthfulness, are all going to play at the next level because of their flat-out playing potential.  Michigan is going to find stopping Randle extremely difficult and the growth of the Harrison twins recently has been nothing short of amazing.

Back the ‘Cats to get ‘er done!

My Elite Eight Winning Pick Is Kentucky at -2 Points