Updated 2105 Stanley Cup Odds - Second Round Mayhem

Updated 2105 Stanley Cup Odds – Second Round Mayhem

After a gritty, hard fought first round of the NHL’s Stanley Cup playoffs, the second round begins tonight which means now one of eight teams will hoist any sport’s oldest, most coveted trophy come mid-June.

Out of the eight teams still battling in the playoffs, just three are teams that no one would of guessed a few months ago would still be playing. Those are the Minnesota Wild, The Washington Capitals and the Calgary Flames.

What are the odds of any of these eight winning the Stanley Cup

That’s a great question.

Read on to see the Stanley Cup odds for each of the eight remaining clubs.

Handicapping Every 2nd-Round Team’s Stanley Cup Odds

  • New York Rangers – 13/4 – The Rangers made quick work of the Pittsburgh Penguins when beating Sidney Crosby’s team 4 to 1. New York had to win 2 of those 4 games in overtime. That’s actually a good sign that the Rangers are focused.
  • Chicago Blackhawks – 4/1 – Nashville put up a decent fight but at the end of the day it was Blackhawks 4 and Predators 2. Chicago moves on to take on the #4 seed in the Western Conference, surprise Minnesota.
  • Anaheim Ducks – 9/2 – The Ducks were the most impressive team in Round 1 of the NHL Playoffs. They beat Winnipeg 4 games in a row. Anaheim outscored Winnipeg 16 to 9. They should have no trouble versus Calgary in Round 2.
  • Minnesota Wild – 11/2 – For many, Minnesota beating St. Louis in Round 1 wasn’t a huge surprise. Minnesota is a good team. But, they beat the Blues 4 to 2, going 2 to 1 in St. Louis. That says a lot about this team. Chicago had better be at the top of their game in the second round.
  • Montreal Canadians – 6/1 – Ottawa turned it into an interesting series. After Montreal ran out to a 3 to 0 series lead, the Senators won the next 2. But, Montreal stepped it up and took Game 6 on April 26.
  • Tampa Bay Lightning – 15/2 – It was touch and go there for a while. Detroit would win one and then Tampa Bay. Down 2 to 3, Tampa Bay won 2 games in a row, Games 5 and 6 and is looking strong going into their battle with the Canadians.
  • Washington Capitals – 9/1 – In arguably the toughest Round 1 series of the entire NHL Playoffs, the Capitals needed 2 overtime wins in order to just even the series versus the Islanders. Washington then won 2 out of 3, including Game 7, to march on. Resilient teams are tough to get by. This is even true for the Stanley Cup favored New York Rangers.
  • Calgary Flames – 12/1 – It’s surprising how easily the Flames dispatched of the Vancouver Canucks. Yes, the series went 6 games, but Calgary never really looked like they were in trouble. The Flames get Anaheim next, though. That won’t be easy.  
2015 Kentucky Derby Win/Place/Show Picks

2015 Kentucky Derby Win/Place/Show Picks

The 141st Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky with American Pharoah as a 5-2 favorite in the 1 1/4 mile race from post position 18. Call it a good omen or big horseshoes to fill, but last year’s winner, California Chrome, entered the race as the favorite at 5-2. Click here to view the full Kentucky Derby betting morning line and post positions.

The most famous of Kentucky Derby bets might be the coveted Win/Place/Show bet.

Win: If you wager $2 to Win on your horse, you collect only if your horse finished first.
Place: If you wager $2 to Place, your horse must finish first or second for you to collect. But remember, you don’t get the Win payoff, just the Place payoff, which is generally smaller than the win payoff.
Show: If you wager $2 to Show, your horse must finish first, second, or third. But remember, you only collect the Show payoff.

If you are looking for an edge on your Derby Win/Place/Show bets, use my picks to win your Kentucky Derby bets this weekend for the 141st running of the roses.

Event: 2015 Kentucky Derby
Date: May 02, 2015 
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. ET 
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Stadium: Churchill Downs
TV Info: NBC
Stream: Watch The Kentucky Derby

A Closer Look At My 2015 Kentucky Derby Win/Place/Show Picks

Bet Dortmund To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

Trained by Bob Baffert, Dortmund (pictured) has done nothing wrong in 6 races. What’s crazy is that based on Beyer Speed Figures he appears to have gotten better from race to race. After breaking his maiden, Baffert immediately put him into an optional claiming $75K event where he promptly won by 7 ¾ lengths. He then won the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity. In the Grade 3 Bob and Beverly Lewis, Dortmund responded after being headed by Firing Line by going up the rail and retaking the lead. There aren’t a lot of thoroughbreds that have guts like that. His prep for this, a beautiful victory in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, was another incredible victory simply because he bobbled at the start, found a way to get the lead, and won by 4 ½ lengths.

Bet Mubtaahij To Place In The 2015 Kentucky Derby

This son of Dubawi trained by Michael de Kock and owned by Godolphin is a dirt horse. Yes, his bloodlines say that he should relish the grass much more than the dirt, but a quick look at his running lines suggests that dirt has always been his preferred surface. Mubtaahij looked sensational when winning the UAE Derby by a stunning 8 lengths. He’s got a record of 4 wins and a second out of 5 races over dirt. The finishing time in the UAE Derby, 1 3/16 miles in 1:58.1 seems slow, but Meydan is a different dirt track than other dirt tracks. It’s hard to calculate how fast Mubtaahij ran in comparison to other Derby contenders. Visually, he was incredibly impressive.

Bet American Pharaoh To Show In The 2015 Kentucky Derby

Another horse trained by Bob Baffert will no doubt go off as a 7/5 to 8/5 favorite. That makes him a play against for the win slot simply because this is a seriously talented group of 20 three year olds. If American Pharaoh had a specific style, going to lead and sitting off like California Chrome last year, he might be a lock to win this. But, he doesn’t. In fact, it’s difficult to imagine Dortmund, who loves to run on the lead, and American Pharaoh both duking it out up front. A situation could arise where jockey Victor Espinoza leaves American Pharaoh too much to do at the top of the stretch. That makes the chalk the choice to finish third, not first.

Post time on Saturday is 6:25 p.m. PT. Here are the updated odds as of Wednesday evening.

Post position Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Elvis Trujillo Jim Cassidy 40/1
2 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 7/1
3 Materiality Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12/1
4 Tencendur Manny Franco George Weaver 66/1
5 Danzig Moon Julien Leparoux Mark Casse 40/1
6 MubTaaqhij Christophe Soumillion Mike de Kock 14/1
7 El Kabeir Calvin Borel John Terranova II 33/1
8 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 9/2
9 Bolo Rafael Bejarano Carla Gaines 40/1
10 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan 18/1
11 Stanford Florent Geroux Todd Pletcher 66/1
12 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker 18/1
13 Itsaknockout Luis Saez Todd Pletcher 33/1
14 Keen Ice Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 50/1
15 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin 18/1
16 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss 50/1
17 Mr. Z Ramon Vazquez D. Wayne Lukas 40/1
18 American Pharoah Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert 9/4
19 Upstart Jose Ortiz Rick Violette Jr. 22/1
20 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett 33/1

 

2015 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds & Betting Analysis

2015 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds & Betting Analysis

Heading into Saturday’s Kentucky Derby everything is coming up roses for jockey Victor Espinoza who looks to capture his second straight run for the roses at Churchill Downs. This year, Espinoza will sit atop the early odds on favorite to win the 141st Kentucky Derby: American Pharoah (5/2). And now Espinoza and American Pharoah get to start the race from the less troublesome 18th pole position out of 20 runners.

“I definitely didn’t want to be the one horse, that’s for sure,” said Espinoza. “I mean, I don’t think it matters, but just to be safe. I feel more comfortable to be on the outside.”

Gato Del Sol in 1982 is the only horse to win from the 18th post but Baffert, who has won the race three times, took the draw pretty much in stride.

“As long as there’s been a winner (from that gate). I didn’t want to carry that with me. But it takes a good horse to win it. I mean the break is going to be so important.”

Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby in 2014 atop California Chrome, winner of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. His first Kentucky Derby win came in 2002 with War Emblem, when he teamed with trainer Bob Baffert. The two are together again in 2015, with Baffert training American Pharoah. The combo of jockey and horse has not let a challenger get close to them in their four wins, most recently an eight-length romp in the Arkansas Derby.

Baffert said Dortmund, a strapping horse who has won all six of his races, can handle an inside start from No. 8 under Martin Garcia’s reins.

Event: 2015 Kentucky Derby
Date: May 02, 2015 
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. ET 
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Stadium: Churchill Downs
TV Info: NBC
Stream: Watch The Kentucky Derby

2015 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds & Betting Analysis

The Favorites To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

post position – runner – odds

18 – American Pharoah – 5/2

Some think he’s the next coming of Secretariat. If he is, the draw shouldn’t be an issue.

6 – Dortmund – 3/1

He go the perfect draw. His running style says he should stay away from trouble. This guy is the pick out of the Top 3 morning line choices.

2 – Carpe Diem – 8/1

He’s the biggest underlay on the board. There’s just no reason to think that Carpe Diem is going to run the best race of his life on May 2. He’ll have to run the best race of his life in order to beat American Pharoah, Dortmund, and some of the others in here.

They Could Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

10 – Firing Line – 12/1

He almost beat Dortmund and won the Sunland Derby by 14 ½ lengths. Who says that he can’t improve on Derby Day?

3 – Materiality – 12/1

This horse has the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any of the other horses in the field. Sure, there’s the 2-year-old curse, but Materiality doesn’t know about the curse.

15 – Frosted – 15/1

Frosted’s best race was his last, a win in the Wood Memorial. When three-year-olds get good, they can stay good for a long time. Frosted could be the wise-guy choice on Saturday.

19 – Upstart – 15-1

He could be going into the Derby on a 3 race win streak. They unfairly took him down in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Then, he got bumped by Materiality in the Florida Derby. He shouldn’t be 15 to 1 in this.

6 – Mubtaahij – 20/1

His UAE Derby was awesome. He’s shown an affinity for dirt. Sure, there’s no telling if he’s good enough to beat Dortmund and American Pharoah, but he was sired by Dubawi and his father was Dubai Millenium. He could be the real deal.

12 – International Star – 20/1

He’s won 3 races in a row. He hasn’t run very fast in any of them, but who cares? He’s a closer, grinder type, which means that he runs as fast as he needs to win.

I Would Be Shocked All The Way To The Bank If They Won The 2015 Kentucky Derby

4 – Tencendur – 30/1

His second-place finish in the Wood Memorial was the best race of his life. If he can improve off of that, who knows? Still, tough to back after only 1 race.

9 – Bolo – 30/1

He’ll need to get much faster than what he showed in the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby.

5 – Danzig Moon – 30/1

Sure, he finished second to Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass Stakes, but was that because he’s a good horse or because Carpe Diem is overrated?

7 – El Kabier – 30/1

He hasn’t really gotten any faster or any slower since starting his three-year-old campaign. What it means is that he’s going to have to be really fast on Derby Day.

The Betting Longshots To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

  • 1 – Ocho Ocho Ocho – 50/1
  • 11 – Stanford – 30/1
  • 13 – Itsaknockout – 30/1
  • 14 – Keen Ice – 50/1
  • 16 – War Story – 50/1
  • 17 – Mr. Z – 50/1
  • 20 – Far Right – 30/1

Here are the complete odds 2015 Kentucky Derby betting odds & post positions as of Friday

The Kentucky Derby post time is approx 6:25 p.m. (ET) on Saturday

Post position

Horse

Jockey

Trainer

Odds

1

Ocho Ocho Ocho

Elvis Trujillo

Jim Cassidy

50/1

2

Carpe Diem

John Velazquez

Todd Pletcher

8/1

3

Materiality

Javier Castellano

Todd Pletcher

12/1

4

Tencendur

Manny Franco

George Weaver

30/1

5

Danzig Moon

Julien Leparoux

Mark Casse

30/1

6

MubTaaqhij

Christophe Soumillion

Mike de Kock

20/1

7

El Kabeir

Calvin Borel

John Terranova II

30/1

8

Dortmund

Martin Garcia

Bob Baffert

3/1

9

Bolo

Rafael Bejarano

Carla Gaines

30/1

10

Firing Line

Gary Stevens

Simon Callaghan

12/1

11

International Star

Miguel Mena

Mike Maker

20/1

12

Itsaknockout

Luis Saez

Todd Pletcher

30/1

13

Keen Ice

Kent Desormeaux

Dale Romans

50/1

14

Frosted

Joel Rosario

Kiaran McLaughlin

15/1

15

War Story

Joe Talamo

Tom Amoss

50/1

16

Mr. Z

Ramon Vazquez

D. Wayne Lukas

50/1

17

American Pharoah

Victor Espinoza

Bob Baffert

5/2

18

Upstart

Jose Ortiz

Rick Violette Jr.

15/1

19

Far Right

Mike Smith

Ron Moquett

30/1

20

Frammento

Corey Nakatani

Nick Zito

50/1