Monthly Archives - July 2015

College Football ATS Power Rankings

College Football ATS Power Rankings

The 2015 College Football season kicks off in a few weeks. And that means its time to get the latest info on which college team to bet on and which ones you should run to the hills from.

With the information that I have gleaned after studying every college blog, tweet and news report that i could get my hands on, I am ready to rank the top 25 against-the-spread college football teams that every college football fan needs to bet on.

2015 College Football Against The Spread Power Rankings

** Last season ATS records

1. Baylor Bears, 7-5-1

The Bears ended up at 7-5-1 against the spread in 2014. They should be much better against the spread this season because they’ve got a shutdown defense to go along  with one of the best offenses in the nation.

2. TCU Horned Frogs, 11-2

At 11 and 2 against the spread last season TCU garnered the top spot in the ATS Power Rankings. This season they should be close to Baylor in terms of covering the spread. The difference might be TCU’s defense won’t be as good and it’s doubtful that the Horned Frogs get as many easy spreads to deal with this season as they did last season.

3. Ohio State Buckeyes, 10-5

The Buckeyes 10 and 5 record versus the spread in 2014 was actually very good. Since they’re the favorites to repeat as College Football Playoff champions, they might have a tougher time covering in some games this season than they did last season. We’ll see.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide, 5-9

The Crimson Tide ended up ranked one-hundred eleventh based on ATS record. A lot of pressure was placed on Alabama to win the very first College Football Playoff. Most of that pressure has subsided. The Tide could roll to easy ATS wins this season.

5. Oregon Ducks, 10-5

If Oregon replaces Marcus Mariota without any issues, they should be just as good, if not better, against the spread in 2015 as they were in 2014.

6. Texas A&M Aggies, 5-8

The 5 and 8 record against the spread in 2014 had a lot to do with A&M’s fluctuating QB situation. Now, the Aggies know that Kyle Allen is the starter. The defense is going to be much better this year than last year as well.

7. Auburn Tigers, 4-9

Here’s a team that could easily turn around its ATS record from 2014. Auburn will have a better defense with Will Muschamp coaching it and Gus Mahlzan’s offense will be one of the best in the nation.  

8. Michigan State Spartans, 9-4

Michigan State should put up points again, but how tight will the defense be this season?  That’s the question and the reason why Sparty doesn’t show up in the Top 5 ATS…yet.

9. Arkansas Razorbacks, 10-3

A 10 and 3 record against the spread in 2014 made Arkansas one of the darlings of football bettors everywhere. The Razorbacks will be hard pressed to repeat such a great record but they deserve the Top 10 ranking until someone knocks them out.

10. Louisiana Tech Bulldogs, 11-3

La Tech is the first of many teams on the Top 25 ATS Power Rankings that most football handicappers don’t pay attention to. Louisiana Tech has a great shot of moving up week to week and should be taken seriously.

11. Georgia Bulldogs, 8-5

An 8 and 5 record against the spread from last season isn’t too bad considering how deep the SEC was. Georgia could be even better this season against the spread since Nick Chubb is one of the top running backs in the country.

12. Massachusetts Minutemen, 8-4

Even though the Minutemen ended up at 3 and 9 straight up last season, they went 8 and 4 against the spread. UMass was such a huge dog in almost every game that they tended to cover spreads way more than a lot of other teams. History could repeat itself this season.

13. LSU Tigers, 8-5

Here’s another team from the SEC that could be better against the spread this season than it was last season. LSU has a top RB in Leonard Fournette and very good defense.

14. Utah Utes, 9-4

The Utes were impressive last season going 9 and 4 straight up and against the spread. If the Utes can play defense as well this season as last season, they’ll end up higher in the ATS Rankings.

15. Texas State Bobcats, 9-3

The Bobcats ended up 7 and 5 straight up. The lack of information on the Bobcats could keep them in the Top 25 ATS Rankings for most of the season.

16. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, 10-4

The Yellow Jackets ability to rush as if they were a passing team means that they score a lot of points, but can also slow it down to keep their opponents from driving for too many scores. That usually leads to covers ATS.

17. Western Michigan Broncos, 10-3

The 10 and 3 against the spread record last season was awesome. As long as P.J. Fleck is their coach, they figure to be the class of the MAC and to continue to cover against the spread.

18. Duke Blue Devils, 8-4-1

Duke should continue to excel against the spread in the ACC in 2015. The Blue Devils still aren’t taken seriously as a football team by many handicappers.

19. Georgia Southern Eagles, 9-3

Last year’s 9 and 3 ATS record gets the Eagles into the Top 20 of the ATS Power Rankings. They’ll need to continue to perform in order to stay there.

20. Texas El Paso Miners, 9-4

The Miners out performed yet again in 2014. They went 7 and 6 straight up and 9 and 4 against the spread.

21. Rice Owls, 9-4

You had to have been surprised by how well Rice performed in 2014. They took an 8 and 5 straight up record into the off-season to go along with the 9 and 4 ATS record.

22. Marshall Thundering Herd, 9-5

Marshall played well in order to secure a 9 and 5 ATS record. The expectations are much less on the Herd this season than it was last season.

23. Missouri Tigers, 9-5

Missouri backed up a terrific 11 and 3 straight up record with a 9 and 5 ATS record. The Tigers get into the Top 25 ATS Rankings even though they probably won’t last long.

24. Florida International Golden Panthers, 8-4

Nobody expected the Golden Panthers to be a good team last season. They weren’t. They ended up at 4 and 8. But, like so many other okay teams, Florida International managed to cover in a lot of games. Can they repeat?

25. Nebraska Cornhuskers, 8-4-1

Expectations might be even lower this season, which means that Nebraska could surprise in a relatively weak Big Ten Conference.

College Football Week 1 Schedule

Thursday, September 3
Visitors Home Total TV Location Kickoff
Michigan +6 Utah -6 46 FS1 Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City 8:30 PM ET
TCU -14 Minnesota +14 57 ESPN TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis 1:00 PM ET
Friday, September 4
Baylor -34 SMU 34 73.5 ESPN Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas 7:00 PM ET
Washington +3 Boise State -3 40.5 ESPN Bronco Stadium, Boise 10:15 PM ET
Saturday, September 5
Stanford -12 Northwestern +12 44.5 ESPN Ryan Field, Evanston 12:00 PM ET
BYU +5 Nebraska -5 66 ABC Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, 3:30 PM ET
Louisville +10 .5 Auburn -10.5 58.5 CBS Georgia Dome, Atlanta 3:30 PM ET
Virginia +17 UCLA -17 53.5 FOX Rose Bowl, Pasadena 3:30 PM ET
Arizona State +2.5 Texas A&M -2.5 66.5 ESPN NRG Stadium, Houston

7:00 PM ET
Texas +10 Notre Dame -10 55.5 NBC Notre Dame Stadium, Notre Dame 7:30 PM ET
Wisconsin +10.5 Alabama -10.5 52.5 ABC AT&T Stadium, Arlington 8:00 PM ET
Monday, September, 7
Ohio State -13 Virginia Tech +13 54.5 ESPN Lane Stadium, Blacksburg 8:00 PM ET
2015 Vegas NFL RB Props Vs RB Fantasy Rankings

2015 NFL Pre-Season ATS Betting Power Rankings

After waiting six excruciatingly long months the 2015 NFL preseason is a handful of days away. Although preseason games don’t count, they do matter. They matter if you have the inside track on boosting your NFL betting bankroll. Click here for the latest Super Bowl 50 odds and for all of those who need a refresher on the 2014 season take a look:

Before we get to my NFL preseason ATS rankings here are the most important dates leading up to the regular season opener.

2015 NFL Pre-Season Against The Spread Betting Power Rankings

  • July 29: Teams began reporting to training camp
  • Aug. 9: First preseason game: Minnesota Vikings Vs Pittsburgh Steelers in Canton, Ohio
  • Aug. 11: Owners meeting in Illinois to discuss a team moving to Los Angeles
  • Sept. 1: Rosters must be cut from 90 players to 75.
  • Sept. 3: NFL Preseason finale
  • Sept. 5: Cut day. Rosters must be reduced from 75 players to 53 by 4 p.m.
  • Sept. 6: Beginning at 1 p.m., teams may sign 10 players to a practice squad.
  • Sept. 7: All teams must be in compliance with the salary cap.
  • Sept. 10: Regular-season opener with Pittsburgh visting New England

** Last season ATS records

  1. Arizona Cardinals, 11-5 – The Cardinals got no love last season and it appears that they’re not going to get any love this season. A healthy Carson Palmer gives them a shot at the NFC West Division.
  2. Green Bay Packers, 9-6-1 – Aaron Rodgers and Green Bay knows that they blew it in the NFC Championship Game last season. They’ll start this season with their mind on business.
  3. Seattle Seahawks, 9-6-1 – Who knows how many points the addition of Jimmy Graham will add to the Seahawks point totals. The ‘Hawks could end up as number one on the NFL ATS Power Rankings list soon.
  4. Pittsburgh Steelers, 9-7 – Pittsburgh’s offense will be one of the best in the NFL. The defense has some untested but talented players that could lead to a lot of Pitt covers ATS.
  5. Philadelphia Eagles, 9-7 – Philadelphia should face relatively easy spreads to cover this season now that Chip Kelly has gutted the offense. Chip’s got 2 great running backs, though. So, bet with confidence.
  6. Dallas Cowboys, 10-6 – Yes, the offensive line returns but can anybody carry the ball as well as DeMarco Murray did? Dallas‘ defense is somewhat of a question mark. Let’s see how pre-season goes.
  7. Kansas City Chiefs, 10-6 – You have to love Jeremy Maclin showing up to play with Jamal Charles. This is going to be a good team in the AFC, one that should cover spreads on most Sundays.
  8. Indianapolis Colts, 10-5-1 – The word is out on how good Indianapolis is going to be this year. They might end up being favored by too many points in many games during the season. It’s going to be interesting to see how Andrew Luck and company perform ATS.
  9. Minnesota Vikings, 10-6 – Minnesota is the ‘hot’ team, the one that everybody predicts will go to the playoffs this season. How they perform during the pre-season games up to Week 1 ATS could go a long way in determining if they remain hot.
  10. Houston Texans, 9-6-1 – The Texans still need to play offense well enough to take advantage of JJ Watt’s excellent work along the defensive line. Houston played admirably last season to garner the 9-6-1 ATS record.
  11. New England Patriots, 9-7 – New England won’t be a huge favorite in its first 4 games this season. It might even be a big dog in some of those. They could end up in the Top 10 after the pre-season.
  12. Cincinnati Bengals, 8-7-1 – Cincinnati is a tough team to back against the spread. The offense isn’t spectacular and the defense can play down to its opponent.
  13. Denver Broncos, 8-8 – Denver’s ability to cover spreads will depend on Peyton Manning’s ability to rediscover his MVP form.
  14. Carolina Panthers, 8-8 – If Cam Newton improves, Carolina could be a sneaky good cover team in 2015. The defense should be awesome.
  15. Baltimore Ravens, 7-8-1 – Baltimore figures to climb steadily up the rankings once the season actually starts. The Ravens have the goods to get to the Super Bowl.
  16. Oakland Raiders, 8-8 – Sleep on Oakland if you dare. Carr is turning into a decent quarterback and now he’s got a legit number one receiver in Amari Cooper.
  17. Detroit Lions, 7-9 – Without Ndamukong Suh, the Lions‘ D will be just okay. Last year’s ATS record could go much further south this season.
  18. San Diego Chargers, 7-9 – The Bolts could end up climbing in the ATS Rankings if Melvin Gordon is as good as advertised.
  19. New York Giants, 7-9 – The Giants have a good shot of winning the NFC East. It’s another year with Eli to Odell Beckham Jr. and the defense will be better than it was last season.
  20. Miami Dolphins, 7-9 – Miami’s management gave a ton of money to Ryan Tannehill during the offseason. Will that help Tannehill lead the Dolphins to covers against the spread?
  21. St. Louis Rams, 7-9 – This team will improve big time this season. Nick Foles might be the answer at QB and the defense has turned into a Top 5 unit.
  22. Atlanta Falcons, 7-9 – Those NFL handicappers that back the Falcons shouldn’t expect more than 7 to 9 this season. Dan Quinn will be a good coach but his defensive scheme relies on top-notch players.
  23. Chicago Bears, 7-9 – The Bears might be able to climb the rankings. Not much is expected but John Fox is a terrific coach. He’ll get the best that any coach can out of Jay “Don’t Call Me Jake Delhomme” Cutler.
  24. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, 7-9 – It’s hard to back the Bucs to be better than 7 and 9 ATS this season when rookie Jameis Winston really hasn’t looked as good as Marcus Mariota in Tennessee.
  25. San Francisco 49’ers, 6-9-1 – The Niners could end up in thirty-second place in the NFL ATS Power Rankings. The defense is terrible while the offense still depends on running QB Colin Kaepernick.
  26. New York Jets, 6-9-1 – This team will be better than last season. The defense could end up as the best in the NFL while the offense won’t be any worse than it was in 2014.
  27. Jacksonville Jaguars, 6-9-1 – Word is Blake Bortles has looked great in camp. Who knows if someone will step up for Bortles to throw the ball too. 7 and 9 ATS would be an accomplishment.
  28. New Orleans Saints, 6-10-1 – The Saints have the talent on defense and the smarts on offense to be a surprise team in the NFL. Expect much better than the 6-10-1 ATS record from the 2014-2015 NFL Season.
  29. Washington, 5-11 – I doubt that any football handicapper has a clue as to how well Washington will do against the spread this season. Washington looks like a disaster waiting to happen again, but who knows?
  30. Cleveland Browns, 9-5-1 – It’s easy to go out on a limb with Cleveland and say that the team is going to have a hard time covering spreads. The defense is good, but the offense looks terrible. Cleveland repeating last season’s 9-5-1 record is a pipe dream.
  31. Buffalo Bills, 9-7 – Buffalo has a shot at climbing up in the rankings. The defense will be better, and it was good last season, with Rex Ryan in charge.
  32. Tennessee Titans, 3-12-1 – If Mariota is as good as he’s looked, Tennessee could sneak into the Top 10. The team doesn’t have a lot going for it, but it’s going to be such a huge dog in almost every game that Mariota could cover spreads by himself…if he’s good enough.

NFL Preseason Week 1 Schedule

Sunday Aug 9
Visitors Home Total TV Location Kickoff
Minnesota -2.5 Pittsburgh +2.5 34.5 NBC Fawcett Stadium, Canton 8:00 PM ET
Thursday, August 13
New Orleans Baltimore     M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore 7:30 PM ET
Green Bay New England     Gillette Stadium, Foxboro 7:30 PM ET
New York Detroit     Ford Field, Detroit 7:30 PM ET
Miami Chicago     Soldier Field, Chicago 8:00 PM ET
Washington Cleveland     FirstEnergy Stadium, Cleveland 8:00 PM ET
Dallas San Diego     Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego 10:00 PM ET
Friday, August 14
Tennessee Atlanta     Georgia Dome, Atlanta 7:00 PM ET
Carolina Buffalo     Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo 7:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh Jacksonville     EverBank Field, Jacksonville 7:30 PM ET
New York Cincinnati     Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati 7:30 PM ET
St. Louis Oakland     O.co Coliseum, Oakland 10:00 PM ET
Denver Seattle     CenturyLink Field, Seattle 10:00 PM ET
Saturday, August 15
San Francisco Houston     NRG Stadium, Houston 8:00 PM ET
Tampa Bay Minnesota     TCF Bank Stadium, Minneapolis 8:00 PM ET
Kansas City Arizona     U of Phoenix Stadium, Glendale 9:00 PM ET
Sunday, August 16
Indianapolis Philadelphia     Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia 1:00 PM ET
UFC 190 - Rousey Vs Correia Odds, Fight Analysis & How To Watch

UFC 190 – Rousey Vs Correia Odds, Fight Analysis & How To Watch

UFC 190 (click here for full fight card odds) takes place this Saturday in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, with UFC women’s bantamweight champion Ronda Rousey (11-0 MMA, 5-0 UFC) set to defend her title against Brazilian challenger loudmouth: Bethe Correia (9-0 MMA, 3-0 UFC) in the main event. The co-main event will feature a light heavyweight rematch from 2005 when former champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua takes on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira.

Correia, who is an 10-1 underdog, will be countering Rousey’s Judo fighting style with her stand-up striking fighting style in hopes to avoid Rousey’s face-smashing takedowns that are finished by her deadly arm-bar. The champion, who is a 15-1 favorite, may have something else in store for the challenger after Correia’s comments about beating Rousey so bad she would commit suicide. This only made the fight personal for Rousey whose father committed suicide.

Not only has Rousey has been working her boxing non-stop at the Glendale Fight Club with head coach Edmund Tarverdyan, Rousey has promised to inflict an embarrassing, prolonged beating on Correia for her loud-mouth. The results have been amazing; Rousey has added stand-up striking to complement her Judo base and submission skills.

This event will also host the TUF Brazil 4 lightweight and bantamweight finals.

Full UFC 190 Fight Card Odds:

Preliminary Card (FOX Sports 1, 8 p.m. ET):

  • Neil Magny (+110) vs. Demian Maia (-150) (Welterweight)
  • Rafael Cavalcante (+130) vs. Patrick Cummins (-170) (Light Heavyweight)
  • Warlley Alves (-260) vs. Nordine Taleb (+180) (Welterweight)
  • Iuri Alcantara (-260) vs. Leandro Issa (+180) (Bantamweight)
  • Clint Hester (-170) vs. Vitor Miranda (+130) (Middleweight)
  • Guido Cannetti (+155) vs. Hugo Viana (-195) (Bantamweight)

Main Card (Pay-per-view, 10 p.m. ET):

  • Ronda Rousey (-1500) vs. Bethe Correia (+1000) for women’s bantamweight title
  • Antonio Rogerio Nogueira (+155) vs. Mauricio Rua (-210) (Light Heavyweight)
  • Fernando Bruno (+155) vs. Glaico Franca (-155) “TUF: Brazil 4″ lightweight tournament final
  • Dileno Lopes (-350) vs. Reginaldo Vieira (+250) “TUF: Brazil 4″ bantamweight tournament final
  • Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira (+160) vs. Stefan Struve (-195) (Heavyweight)
  • Soa Palelei (-195) vs. Antonio Silva (+155) (Heavyweight)
  • Jessica Aguilar (+250) vs. Claudia Gadelha (-350) (Women’s Strawweight

A Closer Look At the UFC 190 Main Event Rousey Vs Correia Odds, Fight Analysis & How To Watch

UFC 190: Ronda Rousey vs Bethe Correia
Date: Saturday, August 1, 2015 
Start Time: 7:00 PM ET 
Location: Rio de Jainero, Brazil  
Stadium: HSBC Arena 
Odds: Rousey -1500 vs Bethe +1000
Total: Over 1½ +300 vs Under 1½ -360
TV Info: UFC Network 
Stream:  Fight Pass

Can Bethe Pitbull Correia Beat Ronda Rousey at UFC 190?

Correia may have bitten off more than she can chew after insulting Rousey.

Correia’s best skills are in the stand-up game. She’s very good at getting into and staying in her fighter’s stance. From there, Correia has the ability to step forward and land one-two’s with power. This includes landing her jab with power, which is something that few fighters can actually do. She throws combinations with excellent balance. In most cases, she’s put herself in a good position after every punch or kick so that her combos land on something, if not the head or body, then arms, shoulders, legs, etc.

This has led Correia to a 6.07 strike rate per minute average. Not only is that close to double what Rousey lands per minute on average, it has also led to a slightly higher KO percentage for Correia at 22% as opposed to Rousey at 18%. Correia wins decisions 78% of the time, which also speaks to her ability to rack up points in the stand-up game with jabs, one-two’s and counter punches. The one flaw is that Correia absorbs 3.14 punches per minute as opposed to Rousey who absorbs 2.31 punches per minute. Correia has to keep the fight off the mat and use her stand up skills in order to have any shot against Ronda Rousey at UFC 190. 

Can Rowdy Ronda Rousey Beat Bethe Correia at UFC 190?

Rousey has vowed to embarass Correia with prolonged beating.

Ronda Rousey has more motivation than she normally does to beat Bethe Correia at UFC 190 because of Correia’s terrible comments regarding suicide. Rousey’s father committed suicide. Correia stated that she hoped Rousey wouldn’t commit suicide after she beat Rousey. Rousey doesn’t forget, just ask Floyd Mayweather.

Rousey’s take down average is 8.19. Her take down accuracy is 72.22%. She submits opponents 82% of the time. The key for Rousey will be her ability to take down Correia, who prevents take downs 80% of the time. Granted, Correia hasn’t fought anyone close to having Rousey’s take down skills. But, Rousey’s ability will be tested by Correia who no doubt prepared for UFC 190 by fighting against some of the best Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu artists in her native country. If Rousey can’t utilize her take down ability to get Correia onto the ground, she could be in a tough fight.

Motivation is a strange thing. It can work either way. For Ronda Rousey, a single comment, especially the one that Correia made, often times works to her advantage. Rousey is one of the most intelligent fighters on the planet. Add her excellent skills, and she figures to beat Correia easily. Ronda has stated that she’s going to take her time in this fight. There’s no reason to doubt her.  

UFC 190 Fight Prediction: Rond Rousey to beat Bethe Correia in Round 3 by submission