Everyone loves winning a bet on an upset pick. It is just more satisfying. Underdogs are now 162-111 ATS for +42 units in October after a slow start to the season. Last week, college football moneyline dogs went 15-37 straight up for +12.76 units. Keep reading for my Week 10 college football upset picks.
Week 10 College Football Upset Picks
My Week 10 college football upset picks start with Wisconsin against Northwestern. Can Northwestern stop the Top 10 ranked Wisconsin Badgers? How will Pittsburgh handle Miami as a road dog? What will happen when upset-minded and ranked Oklahoma State battles Kansas State in Manhattan?
#8 Wisconsin at Northwestern
When: Saturday, Nov. 5 at 12:00 pm ET
Where: Ryan Field, Evanston, IL
Odds: Northwestern +5.5
Analysis: The Wisconsin Badgers beat Nebraska 23 to 17 in overtime this past Saturday. The reason that Wisconsin didn’t cover had as much to do with Nebraska being a good team as it did with Wisconsin not playing as well as they usually do.
That’s why I’m comfortable with Northwestern at +5.5. Even if Wisconsin plays their best, I don’t think they beat Northwestern by more than 3 points in this game. Northwesternhas turned into a sneaky good Big Ten football team.
The Wildcats beat Iowa, Michigan State and Indiana in a row. They only lost by 4 points, 20 to 24, to Ohio State in Columbus as a +25.5 dog. Wisconsin should have some trouble winning this game straight up.
I like Northwestern to cover.
Week 10 College Football Upset Pick: Northwestern
Pittsburgh at Miami
When: Saturday, Nov. 5 at 12:30 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium, Miami, FL
TV: ACC Net
Odds: Pittsburgh +3.5
Analysis: After starting out the season going 4-0 straight up, the Miami Hurricanes are reeling. Miami has lost an unbelievable 5 games in a row. This past Saturday they lost to lowly Notre Dame by a 30 to 27 score. How Miami couldn’t take advantage of Notre Dame’s horrible defense is beyond me.
I don’t think Pittsburgh just covers the spread in this game. I think that the Panthers beat Miami straight up. Pittsburgh had the lead over tough Virginia Tech in their last, a 36 to 39 loss. Pitthad won 3 games in a row before the loss to the Hokies.
I don’t think Miami’s defense is going to have any answer for Pittsburgh’s offense. I also feel that the Hurricanes have become a boring team on offense. Miami telegraphs their plays like crazy. Even though Pittsburgh’s defense isn’t nearly as good this season as it was last season, the Panthers should stop the Canes just enough for the straight up win.
Week 10 College Football Upset Pick: Pittsburgh
#22 Oklahoma State at Kansas State
When: Saturday, Nov. 5 at 3:30 pm ET
Where: Bill Snyder Stadium, Manhattan, KS
Odds: Oklahoma State +1.5
Analysis: Oklahoma State heads to Kansas State as a +1.5 dog. That’s pretty intense considering how good Oklahoma State’s defense played against West Virginia in the Cowboys 30 to 27 win over the Mountaineers this past Saturday.
But Kansas State is no slouch. The Wildcats have won 3 out of their last 4. They’re 5 and 3 on the season. It’s always difficult to beat Bill Snyder in his stadium, on his field. The feeling here is that Oklahoma State is on such a roll (the longer coach Mike Gundry grows his hair the better the Cowboys play!) that Oklahoma State should keep it going in this.
If the Cowboys can put pressure on K-State QB Jesse Ertz and keep Ertz from rushing too effectively with the football, they should win straight up.