Monthly Archives - January 2017

Avoid The Most Common Super Bowl Betting Mistakes

Don’t Make These Super Bowl Betting Mistakes

Are you a first time Super Bowl bettor? Have bet everything but the Super Bowl? Do you only bet when your home team is on the field? With Super Bowl 51 on the horizon, NFL betting enthusiasts of all levels are looking high and low for the best betting advice and Super Bowl 51 analysis they can find.

To that end, we’re offering up a list of five costly mistakes that Super Bowl 51 bettors need to avoid making when Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons look to take down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots when they square off in Houston on February 5.

Now, let’s get started.

5 Avoidable Super Bowl Betting Mistakes

Bet Early or Bet Late

Many Super Bowl bettors make their wagers on the big game either too early or too late. Let’s take the Super Bowl 51 odds for example. After opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the New England Patriots are currently solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta at almost every sportsbook there is.

Now, if you plan on backing the Patriots, then you likely want to get Tom Brady and company early as the odds for New England winning Super Bowl 51 almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter.

Conversely, if you’re thinking about betting on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the upset, you may want to wait a while longer to make your wager in the hopes that the Super Bowl 51 betting line will move closer to 4 or even 4.5 points. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog, then you could be losing a valuable point or point and a half.

As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement whether big or small – and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect some more movement before Super Bowl 51 takes place.

If you didn’t know, the vast majority of Super Bowl bets (97 percent) don’t come in until about 48 hours before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points. If you already got New England at 2.5 or 3 points, then you should know that by waiting too long you could lose that same 1-1.5 points that you’d gain of you were betting on Atlanta.

Polar-Opposite Props Bets

When it comes to props betting, the simple thought process is that you should start with the spread and Over/Under total and make sure your props picks are all leaning toward the same outcomes that you’re expecting.

For instance, if you like the Over and you’re expecting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to light up the Patriots for over 300 passing yards, then you probably don’t want to go making props wagers for either Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman to top their respective rushing total props odds.

Maybe you believe the Patriots’ underrated defense will put the clamps on Ryan and company and you think the Under will play out. Then you’re surely not going to go making wagers on Ryan or superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to top their personal passing and receiving yards props odds. The bottom line is that you need to make sure your props bets aren’t polar-opposite picks that contradict one another.  

The Price Isn’t Always Right

Novice bettors often make the massive mistake of not paying attention to the juice attached to specific wagers, particularly when the Super Bowl rolls around and a multitude of props odds become available in addition to the usual side, moneyline and total odds.

Many times props odds wagers will carry ridiculous price tags that are set up to draw attention to the wager or have been set after the betting market for the wager has been firmly established.

Think like a professional and make sure you’re wary of high or overpriced betting lines. Most pros in the industry won’t pay more than -150 for any wager and that is a timeless technique that you may want to incorporate into your own betting style.

Super Bowl Halftime Bets/Chasing Lines

I can tell you from personal knowledge that I know several NFL football bettors that chase lines or go all in on halftime betting opportunities – generally after losing some cash in the first half. Bettors will often start making ‘wishful’ wagers that don’t have the value they should or worse, start making wagers that go against the very thought process they may have formed prior to the Super Bowl.

Case in point…let’s say you played the Over 52 total points or Over 24 first half points and the score is 13-3 at the half. Many bettors will then throw money on the Under or second half Under in the hopes of getting back some of the earnings they lost in the first half. Making halftime bets and chasing lines is a definite no-no that Super Bowl bettors should avoid.

Media Over-Exposure

In today’s fast-paced, high-tech times where information flows as easily as the Mississippi River, Super Bowl bettors can often get an overload of media exposure that alters their way of thinking – and betting on the Super Bowl.

While being knowledgeable and making informed wagers is certainly part of the prescription for Super Bowl betting success, media overexposure can often be detrimental as well.

For instance, let’s say you’re initial thought on Super Bowl 51 was that Atlanta was a great pick at +3 against New England, but after watching some ESPN and NFL Network experts rave about Tom Brady’s postseason success, you begin to have second thoughts about picking the Falcons to cover.

Maybe they’ve gone online and read so many Brady, Bill Belichick and New England Patriots-related articles that they then go against their initial thought and change their minds on their pick for Atlanta.

Remember, with two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, every single matchup and every single aspect of the game will be analyzed to an endless degree, often times incorrectly by those who claim to be ‘experts’.

Believe it or not, there is such a thing as an overload of media overexposure. Don’t let this new-age phenomenon alter your initial thought process and remember, going with your first mind is usually the right choice.

Remember, to keep your Super Bowl bets within your means. That way, you’ll be able to enjoy the big game whether you come out on top or not.

Super Bowl LI MVP Odds & Pick

Super Bowl LI MVP Odds & Pick

Super Bowl 51 is less than two weeks away. The big game is going to be played on Sunday, February 5, 2017 in Houston, Texas at NRG Stadium. The participants are the Atlanta Falcons from the NFC and the New England Patriots from the AFC.

Among the many wagers available is to decide who’s going to take home the Super Bowl MVP. Last season, Denver Broncos’ DE Von Miller took home the Super Bowl MVP trophy at big odds. Will an offensive player take home the MVP this season?  Or, will another defensive player come up big enough for the Super Bowl MVP Award?

Super Bowl LI MVP Picks

Most of the betting possibilities are listed below. Want to know who the favorite to win the Super Bowl MVP is? Keep reading to find out. Want to see who the smart pick is to take home the MVP? I’ve listed that here as well. I’ve even listed the longshot pick that’s gaining momentum along with my personal pick for the Super Bowl 51 MVP!

What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET  
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta

 

Super Bowl MVP Favorite:   Patriots QB Tom Brady -110

Brady is a deserving favorite. After all, Terrific Tom could end up winning his fifth Super Bowl. That’s something that no other quarterback in the history of the NFL has ever done. New England’s offense relies on their leader, Tom Brady. Plus, although he has many detractors, he also has plenty of fans. Some NFL analysts believe he’s the greatest QB to ever walk onto a football field.

Super Bowl MVP Smart Bet:  Falcons QB Matt Ryan +185

Terrific Tom was a shoo-in for the NFL League MVP until Matt Ryan won the NFL Offensive Player of the Year Award a few weeks ago. Everyone agrees that if Atlanta wins the Super Bowl on Feb. 5, it will be because of their terrific QB, the likely NFL League MVP this season, had an awesome game. If you like Atlanta to pull off the upset, you should love Matty Ice’s chances of winning the Super Bowl MVP.

Super Bowl MVP Longshot Pick:  Patriots WR Chris Hogan +3300

Hogan was brilliant versus the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC Championship Game. His odds are a respectable longshot +2500. The reason is because Atlanta’s defense must pay attention to Julian Edelman. Brady could end up going to Hogan all day in Super Bowl 51.

Super Bowl MVP Sharp Pick:  Patriots RB LeGarrette Blount +2000

It’s happened in the past where New England coach Bill Belichick and his coaching staff have come out and done something unexpected. Doing something unexpected, something that Green Bay should have done in the NFC Championship, is rushing the football with big LeGarrette Blount. Why not? Atlanta’s only shot at winning this game is via a shootout. Why not lessen Atlanta’s chances of scoring by rushing the football and slowing the game down? The Falcons have developed into a terrific pass rushing team. If Belichick decides to take advantage of that by rushing Blount, big LeGarrette could easily win the Super Bowl MVP Award.

My PERSONAL Super Bowl MVP Pick:  Patriots CB Malcolm Butler +10,000

I think that for the second season in a row, the Super Bowl MVP will go to a defensive player. After studying Super Bowl 51 for the past 48 hours or so, I’ve concluded that the only way Atlanta moves the football is by throwing it to WR Julio Jones. New England’s defense is built around allowing as minimal amount of points as possible. The Pats give up 15.6 points per game.

Atlanta ‘s defense is going to allow a lot more than 15.6 points in Super Bowl 51. Since the Falcons are likely to have to try and catch up to the Patriots on the scoreboard, there’s a good chance that Matty Ice starts haphazardly throwing to Julio. It’s at that point when Malcolm Butler steps it up and becomes the Super Bowl hero with a key interception.
I’m going with Butler at 75 to 1 odds.

SUPER BOWL LI MOST VALUABLE PLAYER ODDS

  • Tom Brady -110
  • Matt Ryan +185
  • Julio Jones +1600
  • LaGarrette Blount +2000
  • Julian Edelman +2000
  • Devonta Freeman +2000
  • Dion Lewis +3300
  • Chris Hogan +3300
  • Tevin Coleman +5000
  • Martellus Bennett +6600
  • Taylor Gabriel +7000
  • Vic Beasley Jr. +8000
  • Mohamed Sanu +8000
  • Malcolm Butler +10000
  • James White +15000
  • Devin McCourty +15000
  • Patrick Chung +20000
  • Jabaal Sheard +20000
  • Trey Flowers +20000
  • Deion Jones +2000
  • Ricardo Allen +25000
  • Stephen Gostkowski +25000
  • Keanu Neal +30000
  • Logan Ryan +30000
  • Matt Bryant +40000
Kentucky Vs Tennessee Line & Expert Pick

Kentucky Vs Tennessee Line & Expert Pick

The second game of ESPN’s NCAA hoops double-header features the Kentucky Wildcats visiting the Tennessee Volunteers. Click here to bet on the first game. The NCAA hoops betting line favors the Kentucky by 9.5-points to beat Tennessee. Tip-off is this Tuesday, January 24th at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN from the Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Kentucky Wildcats Vs Tennessee Volunteers Line & Expert Pick

What: No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (17-2) at Tennessee Volunteers (10-9)
When: Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Start Time: 9:00 PM ET 
Where: Knoxville, Tennessee
Stadium: Thompson-Boling Arena
Spread: UK -9.5
Moneyline: UK -600
Game Total: 167.5
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Kentucky vs Tennessee

Why Bet The Kentucky Wildcats To Beat The Volunteers

The Kentucky Wildcats have won seven straight games, including an 85-69 win over South Carolina in their last outing. They are 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS this season. They average 92.9 points per game (3rd) and give up 72.1 points per game (182nd).

The Wildcats shoot 49.9% from the field (9th) and 35.9% from three points (143rd). Freshman guard Malik Monk (21.7 PPG & 2.4 RPG) and was unstoppable against South Carolina, scoring 27 points on 9-14 from the field. Freshman guard De’Aaron Fox (16.2 PPG & 6.0 APG) ranks first in assists in and second in scoring for the Wildcats is day-to-day. He missed most of Saturday’s win over South Carolina with an ankle injury. He was in a boot Saturday, but entered the practice facility with both ankles taped.

"It’s not swelled," Monk said about his teammate. "I think it might’ve been a stinger, I don’t know. Something hit his ankle, so he’s in a boot. But they said there’s no swelling."

Kentucky averages 40.9 rebounds per game (9th) and 6.5 steals. They have 20.9 point differential this season.

Why Bet The Tennessee Volunteers To Beat The Wildcats

The last time on the hard-court, the Tennessee Volunteers beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs 91-74 and improved to 10-9 SU and 9-8 ATS this season. They average 77.8 points per game (84th) and allow 74.1 points per game (234th).

The Volunteers shoot 44.3% from the field (189th) and 33.1% from three points (257th). Tennessee is led by senior guard Robert Hubbs III (14.7 PPG & 4.9 RPG) and next comes freshman forward Grant Williams (10.8 PPG & 5.5 RPG) followed by a stream of young talent. In their win against the Bulldogs, Hubbs III had 19 points, and Williams added 17.

"It’s just toughness, energy and effort, just trying to out-tough the other team and give more energy than the other team," said Tennessee’s Lew Evans.

Tennessee averages 37.4 rebounds per game (128th) and 6.2 steals. Their point differential is a slim 3.8 points this season.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On:

  • Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
  • Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
  • Wildcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.

Analyzing My Kentucky Vs Tennessee Expert Pick

Common opponents would suggest betting on Kentucky will be ulcer inducing. UK is 6-0 while the Volunteers are 3-3. The strangest comparisons are that the Wildcats won at Ole Miss by 23 points while Tennessee lost in Oxford by 11, a 34-point swing. But the Volunteers whipped Mississippi State by 17 while UK topped the Bulldogs by only seven. Tennessee also won at Vanderbilt by 12 whereas UK only won by six points.

There is one other concern for Kentucky. The Wildcats have a marquee showdown looming on Saturday when No. 2 Kansas visits No. 4 Kentucky. Toss in Fox’s injury and does Tennessee have a shot of covering the 9.5-point line as underdogs?

No! Bet the Wildcats to win and cover!