Monthly Archives - January 2017

The Experts Pick Super Bowl 51

The Experts Pick Super Bowl 51

The New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons will meet Sunday (6:30 p.m. ET, FOX) in Super Bowl LI. The betting spread holding steady at 3-points in favor of the Pats. The game total is a preposterous 59-points.

As the teams prepare to hit the grid-iron, here is how the pros and experts are picking Super Bowl LI.

The Experts Pick Super Bowl 51

What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET  
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta

 

Donald Trump, President: New England

“You know, Tom Brady is a friend of mine. We play golf together,” said Trump. “Great quarterback. He’s a phenomenal guy and a great athlete. I’m with him, I feel the same age as him. It’s crazy.”

Michael Vick, former QB: Atlanta

"They got hot, put on a great performance in the playoffs and took advantage of the home field opportunities. I’m pumped for them, man. I’m excited as a fan, not only for the franchise but to see some good football."

Bill Simmons, The Ringer, The Boston Sports Guy: New England

"Oh. I mean. [LeGarrette] Blount could absolutely win it. [Julian] Edelman could win it. Deion Branch won [in the game against] the Eagles."

Pete Prisco, CBS Sports: Atlanta

"In the end, the Patriots will have the ball down 35-31 with a chance to go win it. This time, it won’t be a Brady late drive to a title. Instead, it will be a sack by Vic Beasley late to end the drive and give the Atlanta Falcons their first Super Bowl victory and give Ryan validation by some as a top quarterback."

Falcons 35, Patriots 31

FiveThirtyEight.com: New England

"Our forecast is based on 100,000 simulations of the season and updates after every game. Our model uses Elo ratings (a measure of strength based on head-to-head results and quality of opponent) to calculate teams’ chances of winning their regular-season games and advancing to and through the playoffs. "

Gerald McCoy, DT, Buccaneers: Atlanta to win Super Bowl 51

“Because they’re in the NFC South."

David-DeCastro, G, Steelers: New England wins Super Bowl 51

"They’ve got the experience, they’ve been there before, and they beat us up pretty good."

Dez Bryant, WR, Cowboys: Atlanta

"As much as I love (Tom) Brady, I think the Falcons are going to take it. I just do. Because some teams just have that good old glow around them. I’m biased because I play for the Cowboys, (but) I think we’re the only team that had a shot at the Falcons. Because we would have kept Atlanta off the field. If the Patriots run game is strong that day … they’ve got a chance of beating the Falcons. But if it’s weak, the Falcons are going to blow them out."

Zach Brown, LB, Bills: New England

"They represent our conference, and if you’re not Eli Manning and the Giants — for some reason the Giants have Tom Brady’s number — I’ve got to go with Tom."

Michael Bennett, DE, Seahawks: New England

"26-22."

Jason Kelce, C, Eagles: Atlanta

"It’s hard to go against Brady, but right now Atlanta’s playing as good as I’ve ever seen. The way they beat Green Bay was just so dominant. It’s going to be kind of hard to go against them."

Aqib Talib, CB, Broncos: TOSS-UP

"I think it’s going to be a hell of a game, but I don’t know who’s going to win it. I’ve got experience with (the Patriots), but I’ve also got experience in the AFC South, so I’ve seen a lot of Matt Ryan. He came out the year I came out, and he’s a hell of a quarterback, and Kyle Shanahan is a hell of an OC. If anybody can score on New England it’s them, but I don’t know."

Patrick Peterson, CB, Cardinals: Atlanta

"Just because they’re very, very explosive. They’ve got the best offense in the league, and they’ve got Julio Jones and Matt Ryan."

Jimmy Graham, TE, Seahawks: New England

"Tom Brady’s been there a million times, and I’m sure he’ll do it again."

Geno Atkins. DT, Bengals: New England

“It’s coaching and Tom Brady. I wouldn’t bet against those two."

Stephon Gilmore, S, Bills: New England

"31-28."

Jeremy Zuttah, C, Ravens: New England

"As much as it pains me to say, I’ve got to go with New England. You’d just be stupid to bet against Tom Brady at this point."

Joe Thomas, T, Browns: Toss-up

"It’s tough to pick. I think you’d be a fool to bet against the Patriots because of their experience and because they’re playing so well right now, but if you look at Atlanta they’re rolling just the same. It’s a coin flip."

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers: New England

"Tom Brady is too hard to bet against. I think he’s the greatest player to play the game, even though I’m not a fan. Get that on the record. I’m a Peyton Manning guy. But I think he’s the best."

Mike Tolbert, FB, Panthers: New England

“27-14. I’m born and raised like 10 minutes from the Georgia Dome, but coming from the Carolina Panthers I kind of grew a deep hate for the Georgia Dome. So I just can’t (pick the Falcons)."

DeMarco Murray, RB, Titans: No Pick

“Yeah, I’m not picking that."

Eric Weddle, S, Ravens: New England

"They’re just too good. I think it’ll be a great game, but with (New England) having two weeks to prepare, that’ll be a challenge (for Atlanta)."

Cliff Avril, DE, Seahawks: Toss-up

"I’ve got mixed feelings because I’m friends with Martellus Bennett, and I would love for him to win it, but at the same time, Dan Quinn, we won a Super Bowl together, so I wouldn’t mind seeing him win. I’m just hoping for a good game."

Cordarelle Patterson, WR, Vikings: Atlanta

"Me personally, being from South Carolina, I’ve got to pick Atlanta. It’s not the home team, but it’s in my home area."

Richard Sherman, CB, Seahawks: Toss-up

"One of them is going to win. I have no idea. It’s two great teams going at it, and it’s going to be a great matchup."

Bobby Wagner, LB, Seahawks: Atlanta

"I wouldn’t mind Dan Quinn winning because I love Dan Quinn."

Fletcher Cox, DT, Eagles: No Pick

"I don’t even watch football. I really don’t even care."

 

Patriots Vs Falcons Spread & Pick

9 Must Bet Super Bowl LI Props

It’s Super Bowl week and there are several hundred prop bets available. The Super Bowl LI betting spread has held steady at New England minus-3 with a total of 59. 

If you are not seeing the value of the current Super Bowl LI odds, there are plenty of other ways to get down action on just about every part of the game imaginable from total punts to total net yards for both teams.

The most popular non-game Super Bowl LI betting market is the MVP winner. Tom Brady opened as the favorite to win MVP at 10-11, and Matt Ryan is second at 8-5. Julio Jones and Julian Edelman are next at 12-1. Super Bowl XLIX hero Malcolm Butler is an 80-1 long shot.

Keep reading for my 9 must bet Super Bowl LI prop bets.

9 Must Bet Super Bowl LI Props 

What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET  
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta

Will Tom Brady Throw An Interception In Super Bowl LI?

  • Yes +150
  • No -170

Tom Brady threw 2 interceptions all season. Then, the AFC Playoffs happened. In the past two games, against the Houston Texans and Pittsburgh Steelers, Brady has thrown a total of 2 picks. He threw 2 versus the Texans and 0 versus the Steelers. What’s the difference between those two games?
Terrific Tom had two weeks to prepare for Houston. I think that Terrific Tom goes into the game somewhat rusty after having two weeks to prepare for the Falcons. I see at least one pick on Feb. 5 in Tom’s future.

How Long Will LeGarrette Blount’s First Super Bowl LI Rushing Attempt?

  • Over 3.5 yards +110
  • Under 3.5 yards -130

Blount’s first rushing attempt could easily go over 3.5 yards. The reason is because Atlanta’s defense must pay attention to Brady and the pass. This is especially true if LeGarrette gets into the game after RB Dion Lewis has carried the football a couple of times. The Falcons almost assuredly must prepare for the play-action pass with LeGarrette in the backfield.

Will Stephen Gostkowski’s First Super Bowl LI Kick-Off Result in a Touchback?

  • Yes -220
  • No +190

I’m going with no. Although Gostkowski can kick it deep, my guess is that Atlanta’s kick returners are going to be so geeked up to get their moment in the sun that instead of taking a knee, whomever catches the first Gostkowski kick-off tries to be a hero.

Will Matt Ryan Throw an Interception in Super Bowl LI?

  • Yes -135
  • No +115

I’m going with yes. New England defensive coordinator Matt Patricia will have had two weeks to study Ryan’s tendencies. Patricia is one of the best defensive coordinators in the NFL. He’ll have figured out a way to goad Ryan into a few bad decisions in this match up.

Will There Be a Missed Extra Point Kick in Super Bowl LI?

  • Yes +330
  • No -400

My gut, and brain, tells me yes. But, my greedy disposition has me looking at +330 and thinking that it’s worth a few bucks. I mean, kickers missed a lot of extra points during the regular season. Sure, Atlanta’s Matt Bryant and New England’s Stephen Gostkowski are two of the best in the business. But, +330 odds are hard to come by in sports betting. I must give it a shot!

Team to Use Coaches Challenge First

  • Patriots -110
  • Falcons -110

I’m with Atlanta all day with this prop. I think the Patriots build at least a 2-touchdown lead by the fourth quarter, maybe even the second quarter. At that point, Atlanta coach Dan Quinn should think about taking chances by throwing the blood red flag onto the turf on every questionable call.

How Long Will Super Bowl LI’s Shortest TD of Game Be?

  • Over 1.5 +130
  • Under 1.5 -150

Under 1.5 yards is -150? So, the oddsmakers expect a goal line TD in this game? I don’t. I’m thinking that the longest TD is at least 2 yards. Atlanta’s defense is susceptible to both long pass and long rush plays. New England’s defense can only be beat by short passes. Over 1.5 yards at +130 is where I’m headed.

Total Field Goals Made by Both Teams in Super Bowl LI?

  • Over 3.5 +110
  • Under 3.5  -130

I love over 3.5. New England could very well blow out the Falcons in Super Bowl LI. There’s a good possibility. The Patriots could end up settling for field goals in the fourth quarter. They could get 2 field goals in the fourth alone.

Atlanta could get 3 field goals in the first half. New England’s D is terrific at shutting teams down in the red zone.

Most Penalty Yards During Super Bowl LI

  • Patriots +105
  • Falcons -125

The Patriots committed 5 penalties against Houston but only 2 versus Pittsburgh. Atlanta committed 4 penalties versus Seattle but only 2 versus Green Bay.

I think that the Falcons are going to have a heck of a time stopping New England’s pass rush. Because of that, Atlanta could garner more holding penalties than the Patriots. I like Atlanta to get more penalties at -125.

Bet Super Bowl 51 at SportBet

Super Bowl 51 Tale of The Tape

Super Bowl 51 kicks-off on February, 5. The Dirty Birds of Atlanta from the NFC steps onto the turf at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas, to battle Terrific Tom Brady, hoodie-loving Bill Belichick, and the New England Patriots!

Super Bowl 51 Tale of The Tape

Atlanta Falcons
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
415.8 total yards per game
295.3 passing yards per game
120.5 rushing yards per game
33.8 points per game
371.2 total yards allowed per game
266.7 passing yards allowed per game
104.7 rushing yards allowed per game
25.4 points allowed per game
New England Patriots
Offensive Stats Defensive Stats
386.2 total yards allowed per game
269.2 passing yards allowed per game
117 rushing yards allowed per game
27.6 points allowed per game
326.4 total yards allowed per game
237.9 passing yards allowed per game
88.6 rushing yards allowed per game
15.6 points allowed per game

Key Stats To Consider Before Betting Super Bowl 51

What: Super Bowl LI
Who: New England Patriots (14-2) vs Atlanta Falcons (11-5)
When: Sunday, February 5, 2017
Start Time: 6:30 PM ET  
Where: Houston, TX
Stadium: NRG Stadium
Spread: Patriots -3
Moneyline: New England -150 vs Atlanta +140
Game Total: 59.5
Watch: FOX Sports
Stream: Fox Sports Go
Announcers: Joe Buck, Troy Aikman, Erin Andrews & Chris Myers
Listen: New England vs Atlanta

In boxing, the tale of the tape gives fans a quick idea of who has the advantage in a boxing match. When it comes to the Super Bowl, the tale of the tape gives fans an idea of how a game might be played, where a certain teams strengths and weaknesses are.

Based on the above Super Bowl 51 Tale of the Tape, Atlanta’s greatest strength is its ability to score points. The Falcons average over 33 points per game. Like one fighter’s reach advantage over another, Atlanta’s penchant for scoring so many points per game is the key stat from the Super Bowl 51 Tale of the Tape…or is it?

Reach advantage in boxing is important because it allows one boxer to stay to the outside, out of harm’s reach, while reaching the other fighter with strong jabs and crosses. Averaging a lot of points in the NFL isn’t a true measure of a football team’s reach.

But, one number on the Super Bowl 51 Tale of the Tape can translate to reach in boxing. The number is New England allowing a total of 15.6 points per game. Defensive stats in football almost always mean more than offensive stats because defensive stats are measurements of reaction, not action.

The offense, on every play, should have an advantage because the offense in football dictates the action. The defense reacts to the action.

If the Patriots live up to their 15.6 points per game in Super Bowl 51, heck, if they allow only 10 points more than 15.6, they’ll be using their reach to beat Atlanta for the Lombardi Trophy.