Author - Noah Williams

Avoid The Most Common Super Bowl Betting Mistakes

Don’t Make These Super Bowl Betting Mistakes

Are you a first time Super Bowl bettor? Have bet everything but the Super Bowl? Do you only bet when your home team is on the field? With Super Bowl 51 on the horizon, NFL betting enthusiasts of all levels are looking high and low for the best betting advice and Super Bowl 51 analysis they can find.

To that end, we’re offering up a list of five costly mistakes that Super Bowl 51 bettors need to avoid making when Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons look to take down Tom Brady and the New England Patriots when they square off in Houston on February 5.

Now, let’s get started.

5 Avoidable Super Bowl Betting Mistakes

Bet Early or Bet Late

Many Super Bowl bettors make their wagers on the big game either too early or too late. Let’s take the Super Bowl 51 odds for example. After opening as a favorite between 2.5 and 4 points, the New England Patriots are currently solid 3-point favorites to beat Atlanta at almost every sportsbook there is.

Now, if you plan on backing the Patriots, then you likely want to get Tom Brady and company early as the odds for New England winning Super Bowl 51 almost assuredly won’t go any lower than the three points it currently sits at, barring an injury to a key starter.

Conversely, if you’re thinking about betting on Matt Ryan and the high-scoring Falcons to pull off the upset, you may want to wait a while longer to make your wager in the hopes that the Super Bowl 51 betting line will move closer to 4 or even 4.5 points. If you already bet on the Falcons as a 2.5-point underdog, then you could be losing a valuable point or point and a half.

As is the case almost every season, the Super Bowl betting line generally shows some form of movement whether big or small – and it has already done so with the Pats, so expect some more movement before Super Bowl 51 takes place.

If you didn’t know, the vast majority of Super Bowl bets (97 percent) don’t come in until about 48 hours before the big game, so don’t rush your wager, but don’t wait too long either – it could also cost you valuable points. If you already got New England at 2.5 or 3 points, then you should know that by waiting too long you could lose that same 1-1.5 points that you’d gain of you were betting on Atlanta.

Polar-Opposite Props Bets

When it comes to props betting, the simple thought process is that you should start with the spread and Over/Under total and make sure your props picks are all leaning toward the same outcomes that you’re expecting.

For instance, if you like the Over and you’re expecting Atlanta’s Matt Ryan to light up the Patriots for over 300 passing yards, then you probably don’t want to go making props wagers for either Tevin Coleman or Devonta Freeman to top their respective rushing total props odds.

Maybe you believe the Patriots’ underrated defense will put the clamps on Ryan and company and you think the Under will play out. Then you’re surely not going to go making wagers on Ryan or superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to top their personal passing and receiving yards props odds. The bottom line is that you need to make sure your props bets aren’t polar-opposite picks that contradict one another.  

The Price Isn’t Always Right

Novice bettors often make the massive mistake of not paying attention to the juice attached to specific wagers, particularly when the Super Bowl rolls around and a multitude of props odds become available in addition to the usual side, moneyline and total odds.

Many times props odds wagers will carry ridiculous price tags that are set up to draw attention to the wager or have been set after the betting market for the wager has been firmly established.

Think like a professional and make sure you’re wary of high or overpriced betting lines. Most pros in the industry won’t pay more than -150 for any wager and that is a timeless technique that you may want to incorporate into your own betting style.

Super Bowl Halftime Bets/Chasing Lines

I can tell you from personal knowledge that I know several NFL football bettors that chase lines or go all in on halftime betting opportunities – generally after losing some cash in the first half. Bettors will often start making ‘wishful’ wagers that don’t have the value they should or worse, start making wagers that go against the very thought process they may have formed prior to the Super Bowl.

Case in point…let’s say you played the Over 52 total points or Over 24 first half points and the score is 13-3 at the half. Many bettors will then throw money on the Under or second half Under in the hopes of getting back some of the earnings they lost in the first half. Making halftime bets and chasing lines is a definite no-no that Super Bowl bettors should avoid.

Media Over-Exposure

In today’s fast-paced, high-tech times where information flows as easily as the Mississippi River, Super Bowl bettors can often get an overload of media exposure that alters their way of thinking – and betting on the Super Bowl.

While being knowledgeable and making informed wagers is certainly part of the prescription for Super Bowl betting success, media overexposure can often be detrimental as well.

For instance, let’s say you’re initial thought on Super Bowl 51 was that Atlanta was a great pick at +3 against New England, but after watching some ESPN and NFL Network experts rave about Tom Brady’s postseason success, you begin to have second thoughts about picking the Falcons to cover.

Maybe they’ve gone online and read so many Brady, Bill Belichick and New England Patriots-related articles that they then go against their initial thought and change their minds on their pick for Atlanta.

Remember, with two weeks between the conference championships and the Super Bowl, every single matchup and every single aspect of the game will be analyzed to an endless degree, often times incorrectly by those who claim to be ‘experts’.

Believe it or not, there is such a thing as an overload of media overexposure. Don’t let this new-age phenomenon alter your initial thought process and remember, going with your first mind is usually the right choice.

Remember, to keep your Super Bowl bets within your means. That way, you’ll be able to enjoy the big game whether you come out on top or not.

Kentucky Vs Tennessee Line & Expert Pick

Kentucky Vs Tennessee Line & Expert Pick

The second game of ESPN’s NCAA hoops double-header features the Kentucky Wildcats visiting the Tennessee Volunteers. Click here to bet on the first game. The NCAA hoops betting line favors the Kentucky by 9.5-points to beat Tennessee. Tip-off is this Tuesday, January 24th at 9:00 PM ET on ESPN from the Thompson-Boling Arena in Knoxville, Tennessee.

Kentucky Wildcats Vs Tennessee Volunteers Line & Expert Pick

What: No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats (17-2) at Tennessee Volunteers (10-9)
When: Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Start Time: 9:00 PM ET 
Where: Knoxville, Tennessee
Stadium: Thompson-Boling Arena
Spread: UK -9.5
Moneyline: UK -600
Game Total: 167.5
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Kentucky vs Tennessee

Why Bet The Kentucky Wildcats To Beat The Volunteers

The Kentucky Wildcats have won seven straight games, including an 85-69 win over South Carolina in their last outing. They are 17-2 SU and 12-7 ATS this season. They average 92.9 points per game (3rd) and give up 72.1 points per game (182nd).

The Wildcats shoot 49.9% from the field (9th) and 35.9% from three points (143rd). Freshman guard Malik Monk (21.7 PPG & 2.4 RPG) and was unstoppable against South Carolina, scoring 27 points on 9-14 from the field. Freshman guard De’Aaron Fox (16.2 PPG & 6.0 APG) ranks first in assists in and second in scoring for the Wildcats is day-to-day. He missed most of Saturday’s win over South Carolina with an ankle injury. He was in a boot Saturday, but entered the practice facility with both ankles taped.

"It’s not swelled," Monk said about his teammate. "I think it might’ve been a stinger, I don’t know. Something hit his ankle, so he’s in a boot. But they said there’s no swelling."

Kentucky averages 40.9 rebounds per game (9th) and 6.5 steals. They have 20.9 point differential this season.

Why Bet The Tennessee Volunteers To Beat The Wildcats

The last time on the hard-court, the Tennessee Volunteers beat the Mississippi State Bulldogs 91-74 and improved to 10-9 SU and 9-8 ATS this season. They average 77.8 points per game (84th) and allow 74.1 points per game (234th).

The Volunteers shoot 44.3% from the field (189th) and 33.1% from three points (257th). Tennessee is led by senior guard Robert Hubbs III (14.7 PPG & 4.9 RPG) and next comes freshman forward Grant Williams (10.8 PPG & 5.5 RPG) followed by a stream of young talent. In their win against the Bulldogs, Hubbs III had 19 points, and Williams added 17.

"It’s just toughness, energy and effort, just trying to out-tough the other team and give more energy than the other team," said Tennessee’s Lew Evans.

Tennessee averages 37.4 rebounds per game (128th) and 6.2 steals. Their point differential is a slim 3.8 points this season.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On:

  • Volunteers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 Tuesday games.
  • Volunteers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.
  • Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 Tuesday games.
  • Wildcats are 18-8 ATS in their last 26 games as a favorite.

Analyzing My Kentucky Vs Tennessee Expert Pick

Common opponents would suggest betting on Kentucky will be ulcer inducing. UK is 6-0 while the Volunteers are 3-3. The strangest comparisons are that the Wildcats won at Ole Miss by 23 points while Tennessee lost in Oxford by 11, a 34-point swing. But the Volunteers whipped Mississippi State by 17 while UK topped the Bulldogs by only seven. Tennessee also won at Vanderbilt by 12 whereas UK only won by six points.

There is one other concern for Kentucky. The Wildcats have a marquee showdown looming on Saturday when No. 2 Kansas visits No. 4 Kentucky. Toss in Fox’s injury and does Tennessee have a shot of covering the 9.5-point line as underdogs?

No! Bet the Wildcats to win and cover!

Kansas Vs WVU Spread & ATS Pick

Kansas Vs WVU Spread & ATS Pick

A Big 12, primetime college basketball tilt today features the second-ranked Kansas Jayhawks facing off against the 18th-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers on Tuesday Night. The college basketball betting spread favors West Virginia by 4-points. Tip-off is this Tuesday, January 24th at 7:00 PM ET on ESPN from the WVU Coliseum in Morgantown, West Virginia. Game two of ESPN’s double-header features UK facing Tennessee.

Kansas Jayhawks Vs West Virginia Mountaineers Spread & ATS Pick

What: No. 2 Kansas Jayhawks (18-1) at No. 18 West Virginia Mountaineers (15-4)
When: Tuesday, January 24, 2017
Start Time: 7:00 PM ET  
Where: Morgantown, West Virginia
Stadium: WVU Coliseum
Spread: WVU -4
Moneyline: WVU -200
Game Total: 161.5
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Kansas vs West Virginia

Why Bet The Kansas Jayhawks To Beat The Mountaineers

The Kansas Jayhawks are 18-1 SU and 6-11 ATS this season. Their 79-67 win over Texas pushed their current win streak to 18. They average 85.4 points per game (15th) and allow 70.3 points per game (132nd).

The Jayhawks shoot 50.3% from the field goal (8th) and 41.6% from three-point land (5th). Senior guard Frank Mason III (20.1 PPG & 5.4 APG) is a national player of the year candidate and the Big 12’s top scorer.

During last season’s visit to the WVU Coliseum, then-No. 1 Kansas lost 74-63, with Mason committing a career-worst seven turnovers — a flurry of mistakes that surprised even Press Virginia’s defenders.

While Mason averages 20.1 points, shoots 53 percent from 3-point range and increased his assists to 5.4 per game, the Jayhawks’ four-guard lineup features other weapons. There is Devonte Graham (13.5 points, 4.8 assists), who scorched West Virginia for 27 in the Big 12 tournament last March, and freshman Josh Jackson (15.1 points, 6.7 rebounds).

Kansas averages 40.7 rebounds per game (13th) and 7.32 steals. They have a 15.2 point differential this season.

Why Bet The West Virginia Mountaineers To Beat The Jayhawks

The Virginia Mountaineers are 15-4 SU and 9-7 ATS this season after losing to Kansas State 79-75 in their last outing. They average 88.6 points per game (6th) and give up 64.7 points per game (37th).

The Mountaineers shoot 47.8% from the field (39th) and 35.6% from beyond the arch (156th). They have four players averaging over 10 points per game. Sparked by the nation’s steal leader, Jevon Carter (12 points, 4.6 assists), and senior forward Nathan Adrian (10.6 points, 6.3 rebounds), the Mountaineers seek to avoid their first three-game losing slide since February 2014.

West Virginia averages 37.9 rebounds (106th) and 12.0 steals per game. Their point differential is 24.0 this year.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On:

  • Mountaineers are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games.
  • Mountaineers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Jayhawks are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games following an ATS loss.
  • Jayhawks are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.

Expert ATS Pick & Final Score Prediction

The Jayhawks (18-1, 7-0 Big 12) are ranked No. 2 in the Associated Press poll this time, riding an 18-game winning streak that is tied for the nation’s longest. 

A week ago West Virginia (15-4, 4-3) envisioned hosting Kansas for the Big 12 lead. Then came back-to-back losses to Oklahoma and Kansas State, forcing the Mountaineers to regroup.

My final score prediction is Kansas 88, West Virginia 82.