Category Archives: NCAAF

Michigan at Ohio State Spread Betting Pick

Rivalry Week Michigan at Ohio State Spread Betting Pick

Most college football fans feel that Michigan versus Ohio State ranks as one of the greatest battles of all time. The two teams meet again this Saturday, but, as has been the case in recent memory, only one team is playing for something. The hometown Buckeyes are 20 point FBS Rivalry Week spread betting favorites in this matchup against the visiting Wolverines.

That team, Ohio State, needs to have a big enough win to sway the Selection Committee. A big win on Saturday versus rival Michigan, coupled with a victory in the Big Ten Championship, could propel the Buckeyes into the Top 4.

Michigan Wolverines at No. 6 Ohio State Buckeyes
When: Saturday, Nov. 29 at 12:00 pm ET
TV:  ABC
Betting Line: Ohio State -20

Analyzing My Rivalry Week Michigan at Ohio State Spread Betting Pick

The Wolverines lead the all-time record. Michigan has beaten Ohio State 58 times for a .500 win percentage record. The largest margin of victory was in 1902 when the Wolverines kept their foot on the gas pedal for a stunning 86 to 0 victory.

Even though Michigan leads the all-time record, in recent memory it’s been all Ohio State. Ohio State has won the last two meetings and is a big favorite to make it three in a row. For the Buckeyes, everything begins with QB J.T. Barrett. Barrett, who wasn’t even the starter at the beginning of the season, has put up Heisman-like numbers. He’s thrown for 2658 yards and he’s tossed 33 touchdown passes to only 10 interceptions. He’s rushed for 849 yards and 9 touchdowns.

Against Michigan State, whose defense was supposedly one of the best in the nation, Barrett went wild. He threw for 300 yards and 3 touchdowns with no interceptions. Barrett and the Ohio State offense gets to face Michigan’s ninth ranked defense. The Wolverines defense is good enough to slow Barrett down to a point.

The problem for Michigan is that their offense is terrible. Because the offense can’t keep the ball, the very good defense breaks down at the end of games. This has occurred many times during this season, including in the Wolverines’ last game, a 16 to 23 loss to Maryland where the Terrapins scored 14 points to the Wolverines’ 0 in the fourth quarter.

Michigan only averages 20 points and 329.5 yards per game. The Wolverines have gone 4 and 7 against the spread this season, a woeful 1 and 3 ATS on the road, and a terrible 1 and 3 ATS in their last 4 games including losing 11 to 35 to Michigan State on the road.

This is a rivalry game, but Michigan’s offense is so bad that it’s tough to look past Ohio State to come up big on Saturday. The current trends definitely favor the Buckeyes since Michigan is 1 and 5 against the spread in the last 6 meetings in Columbus and 1 and 6 against the spread in the last 7 meetings overall.

Emotion and history will only take you so far. Ohio State is the much better team than Michigan. The Buckeyes know that the only way to sway the Selection Committee, because their lone loss was too a dud, Virginia Tech, is to blow out their rival on Saturday and then win convincingly in the Big Ten Championship.
Ohio State is the team to back against the Michigan Wolverines on Saturday. 

Rivalry Week Spread Betting Pick: Ohio State -20

Arkansas at Missouri Rivalry Week Online Betting Line

Arkansas vs Missouri Rivalry Week Online Betting Line

Missouri battles Arkansas in a game that could propel Mizzou into the SEC Championship game. Missouri only has one loss in the conference while Top 10 ranked Georgia has two conference losses. The online betting line for this matchup has the visiting Razorbacks as 1.5 point favorites.

If Missouri beats Arkansas as a slight home underdog, they’ll stamp their ticket to the SEC Championship to face off against either Alabama or Mississippi State. Arkansas goes into the game after two stunning victories over LSU and Ole Miss. Does Arkansas have enough in the tank to beat yet another ranked opponent?

Arkansas Razorbacks at No. 20 Missouri Tigers
When:  Friday, Nov. 28 at 2:30 pm ET
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Missouri +1.5

Analyzing The Arkansas Vs Missouri Rivalry Week Online Betting Line

The online betting line has gone from Missouri opening as a +1.5 home dog to a pick’em game and now, in many sports books at least, to Missouri being a 1.5 point home dog again. Missouri should be the underdog in this contest. Even though the Tigers are ranked and have a shot to get to the SEC Championship with a victory, in the past two weeks Arkansas has turned into an entirely different team from the one that played during the middle of the season.

Arkansas started out hot going 3 and 1 straight up and 3 and 1 against the spread. Then, Arkansas hit a rough patch. They lost three games in a row to Texas A&M, Alabama and Georgia. Within the past month or so, though, the Razorbacks have come back better than ever. Arkansas is 3 and 1 straight up, the only loss was a 10 to 17 affair to Mississippi State, and 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games.

The last two games have been Arkansas’ most impressive. The Razorbacks shut down LSU 17 to 0. Then, last week, Arkansas dominated Ole Miss by beating the Rebels 30 to 0. Arkansas held LSU to 123 total yards. Ole Miss could only manage 316 yards and, almost as impressive, Arkansas forced six Rebel turnovers. The Razorbacks defense is now one of the best in the nation, but Arkansas isn’t just a defensive team. The Razorbacks average 421.7 yards and 33.6 points per game.

Missouri has been on a roll as well although they haven’t been as impressive defensively as Arkansas. The Tigers have won 5 straight games including getting quality road wins versus Texas A&M and Tennessee. Missouri’s defense gave up 21 points to Tennessee, though, and 27 to A&M. If Missouri’s D gives up that many points to Arkansas, the Razorbacks should win by a comfortable margin. Missouri’s offense, although decent, has no shot at putting up a ton of points against the stingy Arkansas defense.

The online betting trends favor neither team although Arkansas is 10 and 1 ATS versus a team with a winning record and 5 and 0 ATS in their last 5 games versus a team with a winning home record.

This game comes down to the defenses. Missouri has a decent defense while Arkansas has a great defense. The Razorbacks figure to make it three in a row in the SEC Conference with a road victory over Missouri. That’s going to send Georgia into the SEC Championship game because Georgia beat Missouri 34 to 0 earlier in the season.

Rivalry Week Online Betting Line Pick: Arkansas -1.5
 

Rivalry Week Stanford at UCLA ATS Pick

Rivalry Week Stanford at UCLA ATS Pick

UCLA has one more game before taking on Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship. The team from Westwood needs to beat Stanford in order to solidify their spot in the championship game.

If UCLA loses to Stanford on Friday, then the winner between Arizona and Arizona State gets the pleasure of battling Oregon for the Pac 12 title. UCLA goes into the Stanford game after having pummeled their biggest rival, USC. Will UCLA suffer a letdown after such a huge victory?  Or, will UCLA keep their momentum and take down the Cardinal?

Stanford Cardinal at No. 9 UCLA Bruins
When:  Friday, Nov. 28 at 3:30 pm ET
TV: ABC
Betting Line: UCLA -4.5

Analyzing My Stanford at UCLA ATS Pick

That was some victory that the Bruins offered up for their fans this past Saturday. In a game where UCLA ended up as a -3.5 point home favorite, the Bruins absolutely rocked the Trojans. At halftime, the score was 24 to 14. By the end of the third quarter, the score was 38 to 14 and by the time the refs blew the final whistle, UCLA had allowed USC to score only 6 points in the second half.

The Bruins racked up 461 total yards to USC’s 276. UCLA simply shut down USC’s offense while it punished USC’s defense. All of UCLA’s success on offense stems from their quarterback, Brett Hundley. Hundley has said that he’s likely to turn pro this season. That’s probably not a good idea based on watching him play, but based on stats it’s hard to argue against the UCLA signal caller.

Hundley has thrown 20 touchdowns to only 5 interceptions this season. He’s completing 72% of his passes and he’s the focal point of an offense that averages 486.6 yards per game and 35 points per matchup. UCLA’s offense has been spectacular lately. In addition to putting up 38 versus USC, it put up 44 against Washington. UCLA’s defense hasn’t been as impressive as the offense. It’s yielding close to 400 yards per game on average and 27.2 points per game.

The problem for Stanford is that they don’t appear to have an offense that can take advantage. Stanford only averages 25 points and 382 yards per game. The averages appear decent enough until football handicappers realize that Stanford scored only 10 points against ASU, a team that UCLA beat 62 to 27, 16 against Oregon and 17 against Utah.

The ATS betting trends point to a UCLA against the spread victory. The Bruins are 8 and 3 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS win and 16 and 6 ATS in their last 22 home games versus a team with a winning road record. Stanford is 1 and 5 ATS in their last 6 road games and 0 and 7 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS victory.

Stanford has one of the best defenses in the nation, but it faces an offense that has finally hit its stride this season. UCLA will find a way to move the ball. Almost as importantly, UCLA’s defense should shut down Stanford’s anemic offense. The Bruins are the play to cover the spread in this Pac 12 matchup. 

My Rivalry Week ATS Pick: UCLA -4.5