Category Archives: NCAAF

Bet Purdue vs. Nebraska Against the Spread Odds Analysis:

Bet Purdue vs. Nebraska Against the Spread Odds

The 7 and 1 Nebraska Cornhuskers are the Khloe to the Kims in the College Football Playoff conversation, but the team does have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Ameer Abdullah. A highly talked-about Heisman Candidate, he has over 1200 rushing yards and has logged 17 touchdowns so far this season.

Nebraska faces Purdue on Saturday as a -23.5 point favorite and I fully expect Cornhuskers head coach Bo Pelini to win this game BIG on the legs of Abdullah to put the College Football Playoff selection committee and the Heisman voters on alert.

Purdue Boilermakers at 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers
When:  Saturday, Nov.1, 3:30 pm ET
Where:  Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska
TV: ABC
Betting Line: Nebraska -23.5

Bet Purdue vs. Nebraska Against the Spread Odds Analysis:

The Cornhuskers have faced difficult spreads as a favorite all season long and they’ve managed to cover in most of those games. Nebraska sits on a 6 and 2 against the spread record. One of those non-covers was a strange 31 to 24 victory over McNeese State as a -35 point favorite. That was Nebraska’s second game of the season. Since then, the ‘Huskers have gone 5 and 1 ATS.

It all starts with Nebraska’s offense. The Cornhuskers have one of the top running backs in the nation, a true Hesiman Trophy candidate in Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah has now rushed for over 200 yards in 4 of Nebraska’s 8 games. He’s rushed for 1249 yards and he’s scored a total of 19 touchdowns this season. Abdullah could make it 5 out of 9 when it comes to rushing for over 200 yards because Purdue’s defense is absolutely horrendous.

The Boilermakers allow teams to rush for 176.8 yards per game on average and they’ve been playing against teams like Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. Purdue’s offense is decent, though. It averages about four touchdowns, 28 points, per matchup, and when it comes to the betting spread, Purdue is very good.

Although the straight up record is 3 and 5, the against the spread record is a fantastic 6 and 2.
One issue that Purdue could have in this game is that they recently lost linebacker Sean Robinson to a torn ACL. The senior was one of Purdue’s leading tacklers. Without Robinson, it’s going to be even tougher for the Boilermakers to take down Abdullah.

The college football betting trends point to a very difficult game, at least when it comes to covering the spread, for both teams. Purdue is 5 and 1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Boilermakers are also 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss and 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 conference games. Nebraska is 6 and 2 against the spread in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games following an against the spread loss. The Cornhuskers are also 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games after accumulating over 450 total yards in their previous game.

The winner of this contest ATS will be the team that can enforce its style. Nebraska should be able to force the rushing game with Abdullah and their awesome offensive line. Nebraska’s defense is good enough to keep Purdue’s offense from scoring enough points in this to keep it close.

Although Purdue has been covering spreads like crazy this season, Nebraska is the play. They will beat Purdue by 24 points or more.

NCAAF Week 10 Bet Against the Spread Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -23.5  

Florida vs. Georgia Online Football Betting Odds

Florida vs. Georgia Online Football Betting Odds

Florida battles Georgia on a neutral field in what many believed was going to be an important SEC matchup when the schedules came out at the beginning of the season.

The Gators enter this game at 3-3 but it has been a tumultuous year in Gainesville and it appears head Coach Will Muschamp is on his way out. The Bulldogs have just one loss for the season and have he inside track to winning the SEC East and need this win to keep themselves in the college football playoff conversation.

Florida Gators vs. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
When:  Saturday, Nov.1, 3:30 pm ET
Where:  EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
TV: CBS
Betting Line: Georgia -13.5

Florida vs. Georgia Online College Football Betting Odds Analysis:

Georgia is a -13.5 point favorite in what amounts to a road game against the Gators this Saturday. A big victory, an above the point spread victory, could propel Georgia into the minds of the Selection Committee should some other things fall their way.

But is Georgia good enough to rout Florida on the road? That’s the million dollar question. The Bulldogs have been putting up a lot of points but the defense, pretty much since the start of the season, hasn’t been all that great. For example, beating 1 to 7 Troy 66 to 0 as a -41 point favorite may look like the defense is good, but Troy is an absolutely horrible team.

Georgia barely beat Tennessee 35 to 32 as a -19 point favorite. The Bulldogs could only beat Vanderbilt 44 to 17 even though they were favored by 32.5 points. Even the 45 to 32 road victory over Arkansas wasn’t overly impressive because the betting public made Georgia a rather soft -3 point road favorite.

The Bulldogs are outscoring teams with an offense that averages 437.1 yards and 43 points per game. Georgia’s defense can be up or down. It dominated Missouri but it allowed Arkansas to rack up 422 yards of offense and score those 32 points. It allowed Tennessee’s offense to rack up 401 total yards.

Even though Georgia’s defense can be up or down, though, it doesn’t mean that Florida is an automatic bet to cover the spread at +13.5 points. Florida has turned into, once again, one of the worst teams in the SEC. The Gators are 3 and 3 straight up and one of the wins was against Eastern Michigan. Florida is even worse against the spread. The Gators are an awful 1-4-1 ATS. Florida has lost its last two games. It’s become a team without an identity and with no confidence.

The college football betting trends favor the Gators. Florida is 8 and 2 in their last 10 games following a bye week and 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Georgia Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass and 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

It’s tough to pick the winner ATS in this one because Florida could come up and make it close, but at the same time Georgia has the ability, like what they did to Missouri, to pummel a team. The best course of action is to stick with the trends.

The trends say that Florida is the team to back. That’s the way to go in this game.

Pick: Florida Gators +13.5  

Illinois vs. Ohio State College Football Odds and Predictions

Illinois vs. Ohio State College Football Odds and Predictions

Ohio State, currently ranked 13th in the nation, is one team that is in desperate need of an impressive victory in order to garner any Selection Committee looks, Ohio State has to dominate a team like Illinois whom they face on Saturday.

The Illini are coming off their biggest win in recent memory, a 28-24 home win over Minnesota last week. They have not won two Big Ten games in a row since 2011. Speaking of streaks, the Buckeyes can match the conference record for consecutive Big Ten wins (20, by Ohio State 2005-07) with a win.

Illinois Illini at 13 Ohio State Buckeyes
When:  Saturday, Nov.1, 8:00 pm ET
Where:  Ohio Stadium, Columbus, OH
TV: ABC
Betting Line: Ohio State -28
Series Record: Ohio State leads 65-30-4

Illinois vs. Ohio State College Football Odds and Predictions Analysis:

Ohio State’s offense is easily one of the best in the nation. It makes sense since their coach, Urban Meyer, has been known for fielding great offensive teams. He did it when he was at Utah and he did it when he was at Florida.

Ohio State’s offense averages 44.3 points and 499.4 total yards per game. It’s one of the most balanced offenses in college football as well. The Buckeyes rush for 254 yards per game and pass for 245.4 yards per contest. Ohio State had scored at least 50 points or more before the 31 to 24 victory over Penn State in their last.

There was the 66 to 0 whipping over Kent State as -31.5 points favorite. The Buckeyes then put a 50 to 28 bashing onto Cincinnati as a -17 points favorite. Ohio State followed up that performance with a 52 to 24 victory over Maryland as a -6.5s point favorite. They destroyed Rutgers 56 to 17 as a -20.5 points favorite.

What happened against Penn State? Ohio State was cruising, up 17 to 0 before QB J.T. Barrett threw a pick that Penn State ran back for a touchdown. Barrett had one of his worse days as a starting college quarterback. He threw 2 interceptions on the day and passed for a measly 74 yards.

Barrett should have a day closer to what he did versus Rutgers, 261 yards and 3touchdowns with no interceptions, versus Illinois on Saturday. Illinois’ defense allows 475.4 yards per game. It also allows teams to score 34.4 points per game on average.

Illinois’ offense only averages 28.5 points and 390.8 yards, which is why the Illini have been dreadful this season against the spread. Illinois is a terrible 3 and 5 ATS. There is some positivity to the terrible ATS record, though. Illinois has covered in their last 2 games. As a 27 point dog versus Wisconsin on the road, the Illini lost 28 to 38 to the Badgers.

Then, in their last game Illinois beat Minnesota straight up 28 to 24 as a 3.5 point home underdog. Could Illinois finally be putting things together enough to be competitive, at least form a spread stand point, in the Big Ten?

Maybe, they could. Illinois is 5 and 2 against the spread versus a team with a winning record while the Buckeyes are 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 games following an against the spread loss and 0 and 4 against the spread in their last 4 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Illinois has been playing competitive football and 4 touchdowns is a lot. Ohio State should be pressing and that could work to the Illini’s favor.

College Football Week 10 Pick: Illinois Illini +28