In the NFL playoffs, the best teams usually win and what is witnessed is that the better teams are beating bad teams based on a few simple items of fundamental handicapping. Identifying the best team is not always easy, but if you can, you can consistently win in the playoff weekends. There are a large number of stats to look at including straight-up record, core statistics (points, rushing, passing, etc) and non-core stats (sacks, punting yardage, etc).
NFL Football playoff Handicapping Stats
In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the advantage in key statistical areas usually win and cover. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.
NFL Playoff Totals over/under
In the regular season, even very strong teams sometimes let down their guard. In the playoffs, letdowns rarely happen. This is no surprise. Players and coaches understand that if they lose this game, they go home. So, the stronger teams play up to their true ability. The favorites in the NFL don’t often let up at the end of a game to allow a dog a late cover. In fact, in the playoffs teams run up the score. Even if they are up by two touchdowns, the winning team wants to leave NOTHING to chance and will take the opportunity to score another two if they can.
Home Field Advantage
It is widely recognized that home field advantage in the NFL is important. Regular season spreads are routinely adjusted by about 2.5 to 3.5 points in favor of the home team. But in the playoffs, home field advantage cannot be overstated. Home squads don't have to travel after a long brutal season. The home field energy from the crowd is especially intense in January. Weather plays a big role And, the better team usually "earned" home field
advantage by playing awesome football for 16 weeks. The lines makers typically cannot adjust the spread enough to account for these factors. Over the past eight seasons, home teams have covered the spread nearly 64% of the time! Home underdogs do even better. Home dogs are very rare.
The Bottom Line
In the playoffs, we have reliable data from 16 games worth of stats to evaluate. As stated earlier, the best teams step up in January and there are fewer situational letdowns and surprises. The teams with the better team in key statistical areas usually win. Knowing which stats to emphasize an lead to very successful spread predictions.
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