NFL Week 9 Free Picks – Philadelphia vs. Houston

NFL Week 9 Free Picks – Philadelphia vs. Houston

In their 12 and change years in the NFL, the Houston Texans (4-4, 2nd in AFC South)  have beaten every team in the league bar the Minnesota Vikings and the Philadelphia Eagles (5-2, 2nd in NFC East). Houston is 0-3 straight up and 1-2 against the spread all-time against the Eagles and in week 9 the Texans will try to cross Philadelphia off of that list this Sunday afternoon.

Philadelphia came up short last week against Arizona on the road. Unfortunately, their defense gave up a 75 yard touchdown pass with less than 2 minutes on the clock pushing the score to 24-20 in favor of the Cards.

In NFL Week 9 betting action, they face a tough Houston team on the road. Can Philadelphia bounce back with a victory on Sunday?

Philadelphia Eagles at Houston Texans
When:  Sunday, Nov.2 at 1 pm ET
Where:  NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Betting Line: Philadelphia -2

Philadelphia Stat Leaders

  • Passing: Foles – 177-299, 2039 yds, 12 tds
  • Rushing: McCoy – 137 car, 505 yds, 1 td
  • Receiving: Maclin – 39 rec, 632 yds, 6 tds

Houston Stat Leaders

  • Passing: Fitzpatrick – 144-227, 1757 yds, 9 tds
  • Rushing: Foster – 146 car, 766 yds, 7 tds
  • Receiving: Hopkins – 36 rec, 569 yds, 3 tds

Eagles Vs. Texans NFL Week 9 Free Pick Analysis:

Road teams don’t cover spreads in the NFL as often as road teams in college, which is why it is rare to find a team as a road favorite unless it is considered much better than the home team. The question now becomes how much better is Philadelphia than Houston?

On the surface, it looks like head-coach Chip Kelly’s Eagles are the much better team based on their records. Not only that, but Philly’s offense is averaging 29 points per matchup and 398.7 yards per matchup. The Eagles have become a more balanced team on offense as well. Philadelphia rushes for 115.1 yards per game and passes for 283.6 yards per game. The only real issue with Philadelphia’s offense is that quarterback Nick Foles has thrown too many picks in recent games. Foles’ TD to interception ratio is 6 to 5 in the Eagles’ last 3 contests. 

That’s not good. Luckily, Foles and the Eagles face a Texans’ defense that can definitely pressure the quarterback, J.J. Watt is awesome, but is horrible at defending the pass. Unless Watt gets to the QB, Houston’s defensive backfield pretty much lies down and lets opposing wide receivers go crazy on the field. Houston allows 271.4 yards per game via the pass.

Ben Roethlisberger, in the infamous 3 touchdowns in less than 2 minutes fiasco Monday night game, went 23 of 33 for 265 yards and 2 touchdowns against Houston. Foles has a chance to do the same.

None of this means that Houston has no shot in this game. Houston’s rushing attack has become one of the best in the NFL. Arian Foster has already rushed for 766 yards. Versus Philadelphia’s defense, Foster could get to within 100 yards of 1,000 on the season. Philly’s D gives up 116.7 yards on the ground per game on average. The defense allowed the St. Louis Rams to rush for 125 yards and the Rams don’t have a guy that’s even close to being as talented as Arian Foster.

The NFL betting trends point to this game being as tough as the spread indicates. Philadelphia is 1 and 4 against the spread in their last 5 road games and 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. Houston is 1 and 4 ATS in their last 5 home games versus a team with a winning road record. The Texans are also 2 and 10 ATS in their last 12 games following an against the spread win.

Houston has actually been unlucky in recent games. Turnovers and other dumb mistakes have caused the Texans’ losses, not the fact that they couldn’t hang with any of their opponents. How good is Philadelphia compared to Houston?  Not good enough. The Texans, because of Foster’s rushing ability and Philly’s horrible defense, is the play against the spread in this contest.

My NFL Week 9 Free Pick: Houston Texans +2

Posted in NFL
Bet Purdue vs. Nebraska Against the Spread Odds Analysis:

Bet Purdue vs. Nebraska Against the Spread Odds

The 7 and 1 Nebraska Cornhuskers are the Khloe to the Kims in the College Football Playoff conversation, but the team does have a legitimate Heisman Trophy candidate in running back Ameer Abdullah. A highly talked-about Heisman Candidate, he has over 1200 rushing yards and has logged 17 touchdowns so far this season.

Nebraska faces Purdue on Saturday as a -23.5 point favorite and I fully expect Cornhuskers head coach Bo Pelini to win this game BIG on the legs of Abdullah to put the College Football Playoff selection committee and the Heisman voters on alert.

Purdue Boilermakers at 16 Nebraska Cornhuskers
When:  Saturday, Nov.1, 3:30 pm ET
Where:  Memorial Stadium, Lincoln, Nebraska
Betting Line: Nebraska -23.5

Bet Purdue vs. Nebraska Against the Spread Odds Analysis:

The Cornhuskers have faced difficult spreads as a favorite all season long and they’ve managed to cover in most of those games. Nebraska sits on a 6 and 2 against the spread record. One of those non-covers was a strange 31 to 24 victory over McNeese State as a -35 point favorite. That was Nebraska’s second game of the season. Since then, the ‘Huskers have gone 5 and 1 ATS.

It all starts with Nebraska’s offense. The Cornhuskers have one of the top running backs in the nation, a true Hesiman Trophy candidate in Ameer Abdullah. Abdullah has now rushed for over 200 yards in 4 of Nebraska’s 8 games. He’s rushed for 1249 yards and he’s scored a total of 19 touchdowns this season. Abdullah could make it 5 out of 9 when it comes to rushing for over 200 yards because Purdue’s defense is absolutely horrendous.

The Boilermakers allow teams to rush for 176.8 yards per game on average and they’ve been playing against teams like Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota. Purdue’s offense is decent, though. It averages about four touchdowns, 28 points, per matchup, and when it comes to the betting spread, Purdue is very good.

Although the straight up record is 3 and 5, the against the spread record is a fantastic 6 and 2.
One issue that Purdue could have in this game is that they recently lost linebacker Sean Robinson to a torn ACL. The senior was one of Purdue’s leading tacklers. Without Robinson, it’s going to be even tougher for the Boilermakers to take down Abdullah.

The college football betting trends point to a very difficult game, at least when it comes to covering the spread, for both teams. Purdue is 5 and 1 ATS versus a team with a winning record. The Boilermakers are also 5-0-1 against the spread in their last 6 games following a straight up loss and 4-1-1 against the spread in their last 6 conference games. Nebraska is 6 and 2 against the spread in their last 8 home games versus a team with a losing road record and 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games following an against the spread loss. The Cornhuskers are also 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games after accumulating over 450 total yards in their previous game.

The winner of this contest ATS will be the team that can enforce its style. Nebraska should be able to force the rushing game with Abdullah and their awesome offensive line. Nebraska’s defense is good enough to keep Purdue’s offense from scoring enough points in this to keep it close.

Although Purdue has been covering spreads like crazy this season, Nebraska is the play. They will beat Purdue by 24 points or more.

NCAAF Week 10 Bet Against the Spread Pick: Nebraska Cornhuskers -23.5  

Louisville Vs Georgia 2014 Belk Bowl Line, Final Score Prediction & TV Schedule

Florida vs. Georgia Online Football Betting Odds

Florida battles Georgia on a neutral field in what many believed was going to be an important SEC matchup when the schedules came out at the beginning of the season.

The Gators enter this game at 3-3 but it has been a tumultuous year in Gainesville and it appears head Coach Will Muschamp is on his way out. The Bulldogs have just one loss for the season and have he inside track to winning the SEC East and need this win to keep themselves in the college football playoff conversation.

Florida Gators vs. 8 Georgia Bulldogs
When:  Saturday, Nov.1, 3:30 pm ET
Where:  EverBank Field, Jacksonville, FL
Betting Line: Georgia -13.5

Florida vs. Georgia Online College Football Betting Odds Analysis:

Georgia is a -13.5 point favorite in what amounts to a road game against the Gators this Saturday. A big victory, an above the point spread victory, could propel Georgia into the minds of the Selection Committee should some other things fall their way.

But is Georgia good enough to rout Florida on the road? That’s the million dollar question. The Bulldogs have been putting up a lot of points but the defense, pretty much since the start of the season, hasn’t been all that great. For example, beating 1 to 7 Troy 66 to 0 as a -41 point favorite may look like the defense is good, but Troy is an absolutely horrible team.

Georgia barely beat Tennessee 35 to 32 as a -19 point favorite. The Bulldogs could only beat Vanderbilt 44 to 17 even though they were favored by 32.5 points. Even the 45 to 32 road victory over Arkansas wasn’t overly impressive because the betting public made Georgia a rather soft -3 point road favorite.

The Bulldogs are outscoring teams with an offense that averages 437.1 yards and 43 points per game. Georgia’s defense can be up or down. It dominated Missouri but it allowed Arkansas to rack up 422 yards of offense and score those 32 points. It allowed Tennessee’s offense to rack up 401 total yards.

Even though Georgia’s defense can be up or down, though, it doesn’t mean that Florida is an automatic bet to cover the spread at +13.5 points. Florida has turned into, once again, one of the worst teams in the SEC. The Gators are 3 and 3 straight up and one of the wins was against Eastern Michigan. Florida is even worse against the spread. The Gators are an awful 1-4-1 ATS. Florida has lost its last two games. It’s become a team without an identity and with no confidence.

The college football betting trends favor the Gators. Florida is 8 and 2 in their last 10 games following a bye week and 6 and 1 ATS in their last 7 games following a double-digit loss at home. The Georgia Bulldogs are 4-10-1 ATS in their last 15 games on grass and 0 and 4 ATS in their last 4 games following a bye week.

It’s tough to pick the winner ATS in this one because Florida could come up and make it close, but at the same time Georgia has the ability, like what they did to Missouri, to pummel a team. The best course of action is to stick with the trends.

The trends say that Florida is the team to back. That’s the way to go in this game.

Pick: Florida Gators +13.5