Daily Archives - October 3, 2017

Pats Vs Bucs NFL Week 5 Spread & ATS Pick

Pats Vs Bucs NFL Week 5 Spread & ATS Pick

Can Bill Belichick fix the Patriots lousy defense in four days after their second loss of the season?
Or will New England need Brady’s heroics to beat an upstart Bucs team?

The Week 5 Thursday Night NFL spread favors the Patriots by 5-points to beat the Bucks. Kick-off is this Thursday, October 5th at 8:25 PM ET on FOX from the Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, Florida.

New England Patriots Vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers NFL Week 5 Spread & ATS Pick

What: New England Patriots (2-2) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-1)
When: Thursday, October 5, 2017
Start Time: 8:25 PM ET  
Where: Tampa, FL
Stadium: Raymond James Stadium
Spread: Patriots -5
Moneyline: New England -235 vs Tampa Bay +195
Game Total: 55.5
Watch: FOX
Stream: Amazon Prime
Listen: New England vs Tampa Bay

Why Bet The New England Patriots To Beat The Buccaneers

The New England Patriots total defense ranks last in the NFL. The Pats only prayer in this game is if Tom Brady and the offense can outscore the Bucs. He has the tools to do that.

The Patriots offense averages 32.3 points per game which is second best in the NFL. The offense averages 328.9 passing yards per game, best in the league. TE Rob Gronkowski (20 rec, 318 yards, 2 TDs) and WR Brandin Cooks (13 rec, 294 yards, 2 TDs) are in the Top-15 in receiving yards after four weeks.

Brady leads the NFL in every QB stat that matters: passing yards (1399), touchdowns (10), interceptions (zero). Only Aaron Rodgers has matched his ten touchdowns this season, but he has tossed three picks. Brady has the league’s best passer rating at 116.6.

Why Bet The Tampa Bay Buccaneers To Beat The Patriots

Tampa Bay’s offense average 23.7 points per game this season (12th) but at home, that number jumps to 27.0 PPG. But are 27 points enough to beat the Patriots?

QB Jameis Winston (864 yards, 6 TDs & 3 INTs) is leading an offense that can go toe to toe with the Patriots on Thursday. They average 277.7 passing yards per game (3rd). Winston just tossed for 332 yards and three touchdowns versus a tough Giants secondary last Sunday. Two of his six touchdowns have ended in the hands of the perennial mismatch WR Mike Evans (19 rec, 227 yards, 2 TDs).

The Bucs offense will get a huge boost this week with the return of RB Doug Martin who finished serving a four-game suspension handed down late last season. Martin brings some much-needed explosiveness. In the second preseason game, he was averaging 6.0 yards per carry and was bouncing off defenders. In three games without him, the Bucs have averaged 84.7 rushing yards, 26th in the league.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On:

  • Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 games in Week 5.
  • Patriots are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games.
  • Buccaneers are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 5.
  • Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog.

Patriots Vs. Buccaneers Week 5 Betting Analysis:

The Patriots have the worst total defense in the NFL and are second worst in points allowed per game at 32.0. Last week they allowed the struggling Panthers offense to score 33 at Gillette Stadium. With a short week and the Bucs already putting up points, the Pats are in trouble.

Take Tampa Bay to cover the spread.

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Upset Picks College Football Week 13

Louisville Vs NC State Line & Pick

ESPN will air a great Thursday night college football tilt when the No. 17 Louisville Cardinals travel to Raleigh to face the No. 24 NC State Wolfpack. The Week 6 college football line favors Louisville by 4-points over NC State.

Kick-off is this Thursday, October 5th at 8:00 PM ET on ESPN from the Carter-Finley Stadium, in Raleigh North Carolina. This marks the first time two ranked teams will meet at Carter-Finley Stadium since 2000. The Wolfpack lost to Florida State in that one.

Louisville Cardinals Vs NC State Wolfpack Line & Betting Analysis

What: No. 17 Louisville Cardinals (4-1) at No. 24 NC State Wolfpack (4-1)
When: Thursday, October 5, 2017
Start Time: 8:00 PM ET
Where: Raleigh, NC
Stadium: Carter-Finley Stadium
Spread: Louisville -4
Moneyline: Louisville -185 vs NC State +160
Game Total: 65
Watch: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN
Listen: Louisville vs NC State

Why Bet The Louisville Cardinals To Beat The Wolfpack

As long as Junior QB Lamar Jackson (1639 yards, 13 TDs & 3 INTs) is playing, the Cardinals are going to rack up the points and wins. Last season against the Wolfpack last year he tossed four touchdowns in the first half.

Jackson leads the 6th best passing offense in the nation, averaging 365.2 passing yards per game. The Cardinals are coming off a 55-10 rout of Football Championship Subdivision member Murray State, racking up 676 yards of total offense.

Jackson has accounted for a school-record 92 career touchdowns, including four in the Murray State game when he played barely more than a half.

Louisville average 40.8 points per game (23rd) and 575.4 total yards (2nd) this season.

Why Bet The NC State Wolfpack To Beat The Cardinals

Since losing to South Carolina in Week 1, the Wolfpack have won four in a row and now rank 24th in the nation. But to be taken seriously NC State needs marquee victories and beating No. 17 Louisville and the reigning Heisman Trophy winner will do just that.

Their offense, on paper, is good enough to keep pace with Louisville. During their four-game win streak, they have averaged 36.5 points per game.

Junior QB Ryan Finley (1403 yards, 9 TDs & 0 INTs) is the reason NC State is the surprise team of the season. He hasn’t thrown an interception in 192 attempts this year. He’s part of the reason why the Wolfpack’s 72.1 percent completion rate ranks seventh nationally.

Senior TE Jaylen Samuels is the the key to move the chains in this game. Samuels leads the team with 321 yards and three touchdowns.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On

  • Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
  • Wolfpack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 Thursday games.
  • Seven of the Wolfpack’s Thursday night games on ESPN have come against ranked opponents, with N.C. State 4-3 in those games.

Louisville Vs. NC State Week 6 Betting Analysis

Louisville has won six of seven meetings with N.C. State, including all three since joining the ACC. The Wolfpack’s lone victory came in the 2011 Belk Bowl.

Last season, Louisville destroyed NC State 54-13. Lamar Jackson was outstanding with 355 passing yards and three touchdowns. He added 76 rushing yards and one score. Jackson is just as unstoppable a season later.

Take the Cards to win on the road and cover as 4-point favorites.

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Minnesota Vs Philadelphia Spread & ATS Pick

Expert Picks NFL Week 5

We head into month two of the 2017 pro football season I have a trio of expert NFL Week 5 picks you can cash in on this weekend.

Can Carson Palmer keep pace with young Carson Wentz when Arizona travels to Philadelphia for their Week 5 matchup?

Will there be any defense played when Eli Manning and the New York Giants host Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers?

Last but certainly not least, can Jared Goff and the suddenly offensively-explosive Los Angeles Rams hold it down at home when Russell Wilson and the defensive-minded Seattle Seahawks pay them a visit for their Week 5 NFC West divisional showdown?

Let’s find out the answers to all three questions right now.

Expert Picks NFL Week 5

Arizona Cardinals (2-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (3-1)
When: Sunday, October 8, 2017 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
NFL Odds: Philadelphia -6.5
Total: 44.5

Analysis: I know the Arizona Cardinals recorded an 18-15 overtime win against San Francisco on Sunday to improve to 2-2 on the season, but really, Carson Palmer and company have been a huge disappointment for me through four games after I picked them in the preseason to rebound and contend in the NFC.

On the flip side of the coin, I’ve been really impressed with Carson Wentz and the Philadelphia Eagles who narrowly got past the Los Angeles Chargers in their 26-24 win on Sunday just as I predicted.

Arizona is 2-6 ATS in its last eight road games while Philadelphia has gone 4-1 ATS in their last five Week 5 games. All trends aside, Philadelphia looks hungrier this season while clearly, Carson Palmer is close to being put out to pasture in Arizona. The Eagles win and narrowly cover, even though I’m not ‘super fond’ of the near touchdown spread.

Expert Pick Week 5: Philadelphia -6.5

L.A. Chargers (0-4) at N.Y. Giants (0-4)
When: Sunday, October 8, 2017 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
NFL Odds: Giants -4
Total: 44.5

Analysis: Philip Rivers and the Los Angeles Chargers have lost three games this season by a field goal or less including their 26-24 loss to Philly this past weekend as a 2-point home favorite.

Eli Manning and the New York Giants have lost two games by three points or less including Sunday’s heartbreaking 25-23 loss to Tampa Bay.

I don’t know how else to say it, but right now, I wouldn’t bet a dollar on either one of these teams to beat anyone which is why I’m going to advise you to make a simple play on the over for this Week 5 Inter-conference clash. The Chargers and Giants are combining to give up 47.0 points per game and I just don’t see a whole lot of defense being played in this matchup.

The Over is 5-1 in the Chargers’ last six games in the month of October, 5-0 in New York’s last five games after giving up more than 150 rushing yards in their previous game and a near-perfect 4-1 in the last five meetings between these winless teams.

Expert Pick Week 5: Over 44.5 Total Points

Seattle Seahawks (2-2) at L.A. Rams (3-1)
When: Sunday, October 8, 2017 at 4:05 PM ET
Where: Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles, California
NFL Odds: PK
Total: 44.5

Analysis: Okay, clearly new head coach Sean McVay has had a profound effect on the Los Angeles Rams, seeing as how they are now an offensive machine that is ranked first in the league in scoring at a whopping 35.5 points per game. Despite beating up on Indianapolis in their 46-18 win on Sunday, I remain skeptical at best about Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks at this point.

Still, something tells me that Seattle is going to come out and shut down Jared Goff and the suddenly high-scoring Rams while putting some points of their own on the board to get the much-needed road win in this intriguing Week 5 NFC West divisional battle. Despite their high-scoring ways, Los Angeles is giving up a generous 26.2 points per game defensively to rank 28th in points allowed.

I’m going to throw out the key trends in this contest simply because the rams are now a completely different team from the offensively-inept teams that former head coach Jeff Fisher produced on an annual basis. Still, I’m going with the more experienced and much better defensive team in this one – the Seattle Seahawks.

Expert Pick Week 5: Seattle Seahawks as a Pick ‘Em

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