Daily Archives - October 19, 2017

LSU vs Ole Miss Spread & Free Pick

LSU vs Ole Miss Spread & Free Pick

Can Ole Miss old Down the Fort to get Week 8 Upset Over No. 24 LSU?

After exploding on SEC opponents last weekend, the Ole Miss rebels will look to hold down the fort and pull off the home upset over No. 24 LSU when they host their longtime conference rivals in their Week 8 SEC showdown on Saturday.

If you want to know whether the Rebels have what it takes to either win outright or cover the college football betting spread as touchdown home dogs, then let’s get to my expert analysis and prediction.

LSU Tigers vs Ole Miss Rebels Odds & Free Pick

LSU Tigers (5-2) at Ole Miss Rebels (3-3)
When: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 7:15 PM ET
Where: Vaught-Hemingway Stadium
Stream: Watch ESPN
Spread: LSU -7
Total: 59

Why Bet the LSU Tigers Spread at -7

The Tigers have won two straight and three of their last four games but come into this Week 8 matchup off a narrow 27-23 win over Auburn last weekend in which they failed to cover the spread as a 6.5-point home favorite.

Quarterback Danny Etling completed 13 of 24 passes for 206 yards and a touchdown on 13 of 24 passing while running back Derrius Guice and Russell Gage each rushed for 71 yards in the win. Backup running back Stephen Sullivan added a one-yard rushing score on his only carry and the Tigers held Auburn to just 3-for-14 success on third downs. Defensively, LSU sacked Jason Stidham three times and harassed the Auburn signal-caller into a dismal 9-for-26 passing day.

LSU shut Auburn out after giving up 17 first-quarter points and six points in the second quarter. The Tigers rank second in the SEC in passes defended and sacks and fifth in passing yards allowed. Only Syracuse has passed for more than 180 yards against the Tigers this season.

"They know the stakes are high for us as a football team," LSU head coach Ed Orgeron said of his cornerbacks. "They know the stakes are high for them as individuals, especially going against the great receivers that Ole Miss has."
LSU averages 25.6 points per game (85th) while allowing 19.4 points per contest defensively (26th).

Why Bet the Ole Miss Rebels Spread at +7

Ole Miss ‘opened up a can of whup-ass’ on Vanderbilt in their 57-35 beatdown of the Commodores last weekend. Quarterback Shea Patterson completed 22 of 35 passes for 351 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions while running back Jordan Wilkins rushed 18 carries for 113 yards and one score. Now, the Rebels will look to record consecutive wins and move above .500 after bagging their first SEC win of the season. The Rebels’ high-scoring ways clearly have the attention of LSU’s head coach.

"They’ve got one of the best quarterbacks that we’re going to face in the country in Shea Patterson," LSU’s Orgeron said of Ole Miss. "Probably the best group of receivers we’ve seen."

Conversely, Ole Miss head coach Matt Luke said he knows stopping LSU’s rushing attack will be one of his team’s top priorities.

"You’ve got to stop Guice. That’s first," Luke said. "They do a good job with their speed sweep motions to different people. If you load the box up, they’ll hurt you with the speed sweeps. They’ve got some guys who can beat you on the perimeter. But the big focus is stopping Guice."

Ole Miss averages an impressive 31.8 points per game (47th) but allows an overly generous 37.0 points per contest defensively (116th).

LSU vs Ole Miss Free Pick

Ole Miss can score the ball with almost anyone, but they’ve got a defense that often looks like Swiss cheese. Still, LSU isn’t very explosive offensively and the Rebels are kind of desperate right now.

While I’m not seeing an Ole Miss outright win at home, I’m thinking this matchup is closer to a classic field goal finish than the near touchdown spread it currently is – and I wouldn’t be completely surprised if Ole Miss managed to win outright.

While LSU has gone 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games in the month of October, the Rebels are also just 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Ole Miss has gone an encouraging 8-3 ATS in their last 11 home games against a team with a winning road record and the home team in this SEC rivalry is a perfect 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings. I’ve got Ole Miss covering the spread and I say don’t be completely surprised if they pull off the outright upset win!

Pick: Ole Miss +7

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USC Vs Notre Dame Line & Expert Pick

USC Vs Notre Dame Line & Expert Pick

Who’s Playoff Hopes Will Take a Hit When No. 11 USC Visits No. 13 Notre Dame in Intriguing Week 8 Matchup?

The bottom line when No. 13 Notre Dame hosts No. 11 USC in their huge Week 8 matchup is that someone’s already faint playoff hopes is going to a crushing blow when this game goes down live from Notre Dame Stadium at 7:30 PM ET.

Both playoff hopefuls already have one loss apiece and another will essentially eliminate them from having any chance of reaching the four-team College Football Playoff.

Now, let’s find out which one of these teams will get the season-saving win and ATS cover.

USC Trojans Vs Notre Dame Fighting Irish Line & Expert Pick

USC Trojans (6-1) at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1)
When: Saturday, October 21, 2017 at 7:30 PM ET
Where: Notre Dame Stadium
Line: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -3.5
Total: 65

Why Bet the USC Trojans Line at +3.5

The Trojans have won two straight, but narrowly got past Utah in their 28-27 win last weekend despite never coming close to covering the spread as a 13.5-point home favorite. USC came back from a 21-7 halftime deficit to get the win as quarterback Sam Darnold completed 27 of 50 passes for 358 yards with three touchdowns and no picks in the win.

Running back Ronald Jones added 11 rushing yards and one score in the win. Still, USC was lucky to nab the win as Utah fell short on a two-point conversion with 42 seconds remaining. USC linebacker Cameron Smith came up big in the win with 16 tackles and an interception. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly took notice of the linebacker’s performance.

"He’s all over the field," Kelly said. "He’s smart. Great tackler in space, the ability to do a lot in coverage but plays well in the box."

USC averages 34.4 points per game (36th) while allowing 23.7 points per contest defensively (52nd).

Why Bet the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Line at -3.5

Notre Dame has won four straight games including their 33-10 smackdown of North Carolina as a 12-point road favorite last weekend without starting quarterback Brandon Wimbush who sat out with a foot injury.

Running back Deon Mcintosh led the way to victory by rushing for 124 yards and two touchdowns on 12 carries while fellow back Josh Adams added 118 rushing yards and one score on 13 carries. Backup quarterback Ian Book completed 17 of 31 passes for 146 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions. The Irish held North Carolina to three points in the second half to get the win.

"We’ve done a really good job of matching personnel there, and (stopping opponents on) first down," Kelly said. "Leverage has been with us in down-and-distance in the red zone, and leverage has been with us in matching personnel in the red zone."

The Fighting Irish average a stellar 40.0points per game (13th) while limiting the opposition to just 16.8 points per game defensively (15th).

USC Vs Notre Dame Expert Pick

I’m going to get right to the points by saying that USC has been a huge disappointment for a team that entered the season as one of the top title favorites and a lot of it has to do with the uninspiring play of quarterback Sam Darnold.

For this Week 8 matchup, I’m thinking Darnold will continue the interception-tossing ways that have plagued him this season against a Notre Dame defense that has been absolutely phenomenal this season.

The return of starting quarterback Brandon Wimbush will give the Irish offense a huge boost and the bottom line is that Notre Dame is simply the better team on both sides of the ball this season.

USC is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games and 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following an ATS loss while Notre Dame has gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games. No one would have thought it prior to the regular season opener, but Notre Dame is simply better than USC!

Pick: Notre Dame -3.5

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Jaguars Vs Colts Odds & Expert Pick

Jaguars Vs Colts Odds & Expert Pick

The Jacksonville Jaguars are hoping for a healthy Leonard Fournette when they face AFC South rival Indianapolis Colts. The Week 7 NFL betting odds favor the Jags by a field goal over the Colts. Kick-off is this Sunday, October 22nd at 1:00 PM ET on CBS from the Lucas Oil Stadium.

Jacksonville Jaguars Vs Indianapolis Colts Odds & Expert Pick

What: Jacksonville Jaguars (3-3) at Indianapolis Colts (2-4)
When: Sunday, October 22, 2017
Start Time: 1:00 PM ET  
Where: Indianapolis, IN
Stadium: Lucas Oil Stadium
Spread: Jaguars -3
Moneyline: Jacksonville -180 vs Indianapolis +158
Game Total: 43.5
Watch: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
Listen: Jacksonville vs Indianapolis

Why Bet The Jacksonville Jaguars To Beat The Colts

The Jaguars have found the missing piece in their quest to make the playoffs. Rookie rusher Leonard Fournette is the center piece of this offense taking the ball out of failed franchise QB Blake Bortles. Fournette had 130 yards and one touchdown against the Rams before suffering a scarey ankle injury.

While the injury was labeled “nothing serious,” even a minor injury to the rookie first-round pick could be devastating to the Jaguars’ chances of keeping pace in the AFC South — and their chances of winning the division would be drastically smaller without him.

Fournette leads the NFL in carries (46) and yards (270) against eight or more defenders in the box. The closest running back is Carolina’s Jonathan Stewart, who has 29 carries (for only 43 yards). The Jaguars have a league-high 66 carries for a league-high 366 yards against eight or more defenders in the box. Buffalo and Carolina have the second-most carries (37).

Why Bet The Indianapolis Colts To Beat The Jaguars

Will this be the game that the Colts can close out? Last week, Indianapolis saw the Titans scored 27 of their 36 points in the second half after leading 19-9 early in the 3rd.

“We’ve got to play 60 minutes,” Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. “It’s a recurring thing, I know that. We’ve got to figure out, obviously, a way to finish games. Our margin for error is minute and we just continue to kill ourselves.”

Indianapolis has led or been tied at halftime in their past five games only to be outscored 82-35 in the second half of those games.

If You Still Can’t Decide Who To Bet On

  • Jaguars are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a straight up loss.
  • Jaguars are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following an ATS loss.
  • Colts are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in Week 7.
  • Colts are 19-9-2 ATS in their last 30 vs. AFC South.

Jaguars Vs. Colts Week 7 Betting Analysis

Jacksonville is 7-3 ATS in its last ten games when playing on the road against Indianapolis. The Jaguars defense is going to lead this team to second commanding win on the road in the AFC South. Remember they shutout Houston in week one.

Also the Jags have been alternating wins and losses all season. Last week’s loss points to a win this week.

Take the Jags.

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