Daily Archives - January 12, 2018

Tennessee Vs New England Line & Free Pick

Tennessee Vs New England Line & Free Pick

After pulling off a huge upset in their wild card win this past weekend, Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans will look to duplicate their feat when they take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in their AFC divisional round matchup on Saturday, January 13.

2018 Tennessee Vs New England Line & Free Pick

What: AFC Divisional Championship
Who: Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
When: Saturday, January 13, 2018 at 7:15 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
Stream: CBS Sports
NFL Odds: Patriots -14
Total: 47.5

After trailing 21-3 at the half in their wild card matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs, Mariota and the Titans came alive in a big way to complete a stunning 22-21 win that propelled them into the divisional round. Tennessee’s revitalized third-year signal-caller passed for 205 yards with two touchdowns and one interception while running back Derrick Henry rushed for a stellar 156 yards and one score on 23 carries. Tennessee held Kansas City to just 69 rushing yards in the win and won the time of possession battle by just over five minutes.

New England hits the playoffs on fire, after winning their final three regular-season games and a blistering 11 of their last 12 games overall. Tom Brady and company finished the regular season ranked first in total offense, second in passing, 10th in rushing and second in scoring (28.6 ppg). While the Patriots were uncharacteristically mediocre in ranking 29th in total defense, 30th against the pass and 20th against the run, New England still managed to consistently keep their opponents out of the end zone by ranking fifth in points allowed (18.5 ppg).

While the Titans shut the Chiefs out in the second half of their wild card win as Henry overpowered Kansas City with some powerful rushing and Mariota made several crucial plays, what NFL betting enthusiasts needs to know about the Titans as they get set to take in New England is that Tennessee actually gave up more points per game (22.2 ppg, 17th) than they averaged during the regular season (20.9 ppg, 19th).

Unfortunately, that just won’t be good enough to get past a New England team that just doesn’t make mistakes very often and is playing at home in this affair. The Patriots are the better team in all three phases of the game and way more consistent than the wildly inconsistent Chiefs.

New England has gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games and an incendiary 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games overall. While Tennessee has gone 3-0 ATS in their last three games and 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall, New England will be more than prepared to put the Titans in their place in this AFC Divisional matchup. Whether you love them or loathe them, the combination of Tom Brady and Bill Belichick have been extremely difficult to beat sine they’ve been joined at the hip and they really don’t lose playoff games to teams they’re supposed to beat – unless it’s against Eli Manning and the New York Giants that is!

I like New England to get the win, but the two-touchdown spread looks like it’s a bit too big for New England to cover in this one, particularly seeing as how I expect Tennessee to play a lot of clock management by rushing the ball early and often with Derrick Henry. New England wins, but Tennessee covers the chalk!

Pick: Tennessee +14

Views: 46

Are the Atlanta Falcons a smart NFL bet?

Atlanta Vs Philadelphia Spread & ATS Pick

Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons are on fire and now they’ve got a defense to go along with their still dangerous offense. The Philadelphia Eagles look like a different team without their star, second-year quarterback under center as they get set to make their playoff debut.

If you want to know if Ryan and the Falcons can cover the NFC Divisional Championship betting spread as road favorites, then you’ve come to the right place!

Atlanta Falcons Vs Philadelphia Eagles Spread & ATS Pick

What: NFC Divisional Championship
Who: Atlanta Falcons (11-6) at Philadelphia Eagles (13-3)
When: Saturday, January 13, 2018, at 4:35 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, PA.
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live
NFL Line: Falcons -2.5
Total: 44.5

Why Pick Atlanta

The Falcons are playing their best football of the season at just the right time! Atlanta closed out the regular season by winning three of four and six of their final eight games overall. Matt Ryan and company ranked 15th in scoring during the regular season (22.1 ppg) but, still have the ability to put points on the board with their slew of playmakers ranging from superstar wide receiver Julio Jones to running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman.

More importantly, Atlanta now has a defense that ranked ninth overall and eighth in points allowed (19.7 ppg). The Falcons held four of their last eight regular-season opponents to 17 points or less. Now, Atlanta heads to Philadelphia for their NFC divisional round showdown after shutting down the league’s highest-scoring offense by beating the Los Angeles Rams 26-13 in their statement-making Wild Card win on Saturday.

Ryan passed for 218 yards and one touchdown while Freeman rushed for 66 yards and another score. Julio Jones caught nine passes for a team-high 94 yards and one TD and Atlanta’s defense recovered two fumbles in the win. The Falcons also won the time of possession battle by almost fifteen minutes while sacking Rams quarterback Jared Goff three times and forcing him into a difficult 24-for-45 passing day.

Why Pick Philadelphia

Philadelphia won three of their final four regular-season games but looked pretty abysmal in their 6-0 shutout loss against Dallas in their regular season finale. More importantly, the Birds have struggled offensively since star quarterback Carson Wentz went down with a season-ending ACL tear in Week 14 against the Rams.

Now under the leadership of backup quarterback Nick Foles, Philly has scored a grand total of 19 points over their final two regular-season games and almost got upset by the division rival Giants in their narrow Week 15 road win with Foles at the helm.

Atlanta Vs Philadelphia ATS Pick

There’s not a whole lot of sense in beating around the bush with my divisional round pick on this matchup as I just don’t see any way Philadelphia will be able to put enough points on the board to beat a Falcons team that is rightfully favored despite being on the road against the 13-win Eagles.

It’s really unfortunate for the Eagles, but they’re a completely different – and far less explosive – team without Carson Wentz under center, Atlanta is playing some crazy ass defense right now and will shut down Foles and the Birds to get the outright road win and ATS cover. You heard it here first, Atlanta wins and covers the chalk to advance to the NFC Championship game!

Pick: Atlanta -2.5

Views: 24

NFL Divisional Round 5 Star Lock Picks

NFL Divisional Round 5 ⭐ Lock Picks

Atlanta, Tennessee, New Orleans, and Jacksonville move on to the NFL Divisional Round. Can the Falcons, Titans, Saints, and Jaguars keep it going? Only Atlanta is favored versus the Philadelphia Eagles. Is there really a chance that the dogs in the other 3 NFL Divisional Round games get it done against the spread?

2018 NFL Divisional Round Five ⭐ Lock Picks

Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles
When:  Saturday, Jan. 13 at 4:35 pm ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia PA
Odds: Atlanta -2.5

The Philadelphia Eagles are in dire straits, and they haven’t even played a snap.  The Atlanta Falcons are a veteran squad with a peaking defense, an NFL MVP quarterback, and a tough rushing attack.

What does Philadelphia have? Not much. Sure, it’s difficult to say that the Eagles don’t have much after Philly finished the regular season with a 13 and 3 record. But, let’s be honest, Nick Foles is not Carson Wentz.

Almost as important is the fact that Philly beat only 2 playoff teams during the season. They beat Carolina 28 to 23. They beat the Rams 43 to 35. Neither one of those teams remains in the NFL Playoffs.

I don’t believe the Falcons have much trouble covering this less than 3-point spread.  

NFL Lock Pick: Atlanta

Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots
When:  Saturday, Jan. 13 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, MA
Odds: Tennessee +14

The New England Patriots, on paper, should dominate the Tennessee Titans. The problem I have with giving so many points is that all isn’t copasetic in New England.

Supposedly, Bill Belichick and QB Tom Brady are arguing about Brady’s personal trainer. Bill told the guy to leave the Patriots’ facility because he’s not a New England Patriot employee. Not only that, but Bob Kraft supposedly forced Belichick to trade Jimmy Garoppolo.

If the rumors are true, it’s going to be difficult for the Patriots to cover a 14-point spread versus a focused team like the Tennessee Titans. I’m taking the points for sure.   

NFL Lock Pick: Tennessee

Jacksonville at Pittsburgh
When:  Sunday, Jan. 14 at 1:05 pm ET
Where: Heinz Field, Pittsburgh, PA
Odds: Jacksonville +7.5

Analysis: I have no clue why the point spread is so high in this game. Did the Jaguars suffer a major injury during their 10 to 3 win over the Buffalo Bills in the Wildcard Round? Let me check…

Nope. It sure doesn’t look like Jacksonville will have any trouble, at least from an injury perspective, on Jan. 14. The Jacksonville Jaguars defense already dominated the Pittsburgh Steelers once.

In Week 5, the Jags beat Pitt 30 to 9. It wasn’t like Jacksonville beat Pitt at home at EverBank Stadium, either. The Jags dominated Pittsburgh on the road. I’m sure Pitt will adjust on both offense and defense.

I’m just not sure the adjustments will account for more than 3 to 6 points. I’m taking the points on the Jags.

NFL Lock Pick: Jacksonville

New Orleans at Minnesota
When:  Sunday, Jan. 14 at 4:40 pm ET
Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minnesota, MN
Odds: New Orleans +3.5

Analysis: The New Orleans Saints battled NFC South rival Carolina to a 31 to 26 Wildcard Round win. New Orleans now gets to travel to Minnesota where they’ll take on the Vikings, the NFC’s top choice based on Super Bowl odds to win the conference.

The key for me in this game comes down to the Saints offense versus the Vikings defense. The problem the Vikings are going to have is covering the Saints running backs, Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram. Both backs can catch the football out of the backfield.

Minnesota’s defense is great. But, if it concentrates on stopping the rush, Drew Brees will kill them with the pass. If it concentrates on stopping the pass, the Vikings will give up a ton of yards on the ground.

The New Orleans Saints are the pick.

NFL Lock Pick: New Orleans

Views: 18