Daily Archives - January 17, 2018

Minnesota Vs Philadelphia Spread & ATS Pick

Minnesota Vs Philadelphia Spread & ATS Pick

Nick Foles and the Philadelphia Eagles will look to repeat their NFC divisional round feat as a home underdog winner when they host Case Keenum and the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC championship this coming weekend.

The NFC Championship betting spread favors Minnesota by 3.5-points over top-seeded Philadelphia. Now lets find out who the expert pick is in this tilt!

Minnesota Vikings Vs Philadelphia Eagles NFC Championship Spread & ATS Pick

Minnesota Vikings (14-3) at Philadelphia Eagles (14-3)
When: Sunday, January 21, 2018 at 6:40 PM ET
Where: Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania
NFL Odds: Minnesota -3.5
Total: 40

Why Minnesota Is The Expert Pick

The Vikings pulled off a highly improbable 29-24 win over Drew Brees and the New Orleans Saints on Sunday that came on the game’s final play as Keenum hooked up with wide receiver Stephon Diggs on a ‘lucky’ 61-yard touchdown heave to beat the Saints. Keenum passed for 318 yards with one touchdown and one interception while Minnesota got two rushing scores and picked off Brees twice to overcome a 294-yard, three-touchdown passing day from New Orleans’ future Hall of Famer. Minnesota finished the regular season ranked a respectable 10th in scoring (23.9 ppg) and league-leading, first in points allowed (15.8 ppg).

Why Philadelphia Is The Expert Pick

Philadelphia put Matt Ryan and the Atlanta Falcons’ offense on lockdown in their 15-10 NFC divisional round win on Saturday as LeGarrette Blount rushed for one score and Jake Elliott kicked three field goals to get the hard-fought win. The Eagles also got a game-saving goal-line stand on Atlanta’s final drive and 246 passing yards from Foles in the narrow win. The Birds finished the regular season ranked third in scoring (28.6 ppg) and a stellar fourth in points allowed (18.4 ppg).

For this NFC championship showdown, I’m going to advise you to back the Minnesota Vikings to get the outright road win and narrow ATS cover, simply because I believe they’ll be to shut down Nick Foles and Philadelphia’s offense a whole lot easier than they did against Brees and the Saints’ high-powered offensive attack.

While Philly was able to get the win in the divisional round against Atlanta by scoring a modest 15 points, I believe it’s going to take a lot more than that to get past the Vikings and I just don’t see it happening since Philly’s offense is not very explosive since franchise stud Carson Wentz went down with a season-ending injury.

Minnesota Vikings Vs Philadelphia Eagles NFC Championship Spread & ATS Pick

Minnesota may not be an offensive juggernaut either, but at this point, I believe that Case Keenum is a lot better than Nick Foles and that he’s going to be able to put just a few more points on the board against the Birds than Foles will against Minnesota’s shut-down defense. The Vikings are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games and 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a straight up win. Conversely, the Eagles are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 playoff games and a winless 0-4 ATS in their last four games following a straight up win. While the underdog in this series is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the Vikings are an identical 1-4 ATS in their last five road dates, the Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following an ATS loss and a seriously consistent 42-18 ATS in their last 60 games overall. I like the Vikes to win outright and narrowly cover the chalk!

NFC Championship ATS Pick: Minnesota -3.5

Jacksonville Vs New England Odds & Pick

Jacksonville Vs New England Odds & Pick

After pulling off the huge upset in their AFC divisional showdown on Sunday, Blake Bortles and the upstart Jacksonville Jaguars will look to duplicate their feat when they hit the road to take on Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship game this coming weekend.

The Las Vegas NFL oddsmakers have listed the AFC Championship odds at -9 in favor of New England over Jacksonville. Can Bortles and the Jags pull off an even bigger upset in the AFC title tilt or whether they’re a good pick to simply cover the chalk as a nearly double-digit road dog, then let’s get to my expert pick.

Jacksonville Vs New England AFC Championship Odds & Pick

Jacksonville Jaguars (12-6) at New England Patriots (14-3)
When: Sunday, January 21, 2018 at 3:05 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA
TV: CBS
Stream: CBS Sports
NFL Odds: New England -9
Total: 46

Why Jacksonville Is The Expert Pick

The oft-maligned Bortles and the Jaguars beat Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers 45-42 in their AFC divisional matchup on Sunday while cashing in as a 7-point road underdog in the process. Jacksonville got 109 rushing yards and three touchdowns from powerful rookie running back Leonard Fournette while Bortles added 214 passing yards and a huge fourth-quarter TD pass to lead the Jags to victory. Defensively, Jacksonville picked off Roethlisberger once and recovered one fumble while limiting running back Le’Veon Bell to just 67 rushing yards to get the win. The Jaguars finished the regular season ranked fifth in scoring (26.1 ppg) and a stellar second in points allowed (16.8 ppg).

Why New England Is The Expert Pick

New England man-handled Marcus Mariota and the Tennessee Titans in their 35-14 AFC divisional round win on Saturday to easily cover the spread as a 13.5-point home favorite as future Hall of Fame quarterback Tom Brady passed for 337 yards and three touchdowns. Defensively, the Patriots harassed Mariota throughout the affair and sacked the third-year signal-caller a whopping eight times to set a franchise playoff record. The Patriots finished the regular season ranked second in scoring (28.6 ppg) and fifth in points allowed (18.5 ppg).

Jacksonville Vs New England AFC Championship Pick

For the 2018 AFC Championship, I’m going to urge you to back the upstart Jags to put up a really good effort to cover the spread as a nearly double-digit road dog. First and foremost, I think the spread is a bit too high right now and expected the Pats to open as something closer to a touchdown favorite than a near, double-digit pick.

More importantly, I think the Jaguars play a style of football perfectly suited to cover the chalk in this one. Jacksonville should be able to chew up plenty of clock by leaning on Fournette and their league-leading rushing attack and right now, I’m also inclined to believe they’ll get just enough competent passing from Bortles to make an ATS cover stand up. While the Patriots ranked fifth in points allowed, they also gave up a ton of yardage this season while finishing 30th against the pass (251.2 ypg) and 20th against the run (114.8 ypg).

Jacksonville is 4-0 ATS in their last four games after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, 12-5 ATS in their last 17 games against their AFC rivals and 5-4 ATS on the road this season. Two other things stand out for me about this contest. First, New England is just 2-6 ATS in their last 8 Conference Championships games and Jaguars vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin knows just how to beat the Patriots, having done so twice in Super Bowl matchups as the head coach of the New York Giants. New England manages to get the outright home win to advance to Super Bowl 52, but I like the Jags to cover the chalk!

AFC Championship Pick: Jacksonville +9