Daily Archives - April 23, 2018

Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

The 2018 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 5th. All Derby Preps have already completed. The early 2018 Kentucky Derby odds are out. Who is the early betting favorite to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby? Is there a smart bet? Is there a long shot that can take the first jewel of the Triple Crown?

Early Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

  • Justify +370
  • Mendelssohn +470
  • Magnum Moon +650
  • Audible +670
  • Bolt D’oro +750
  • Good Magic +900
  • Vino Rosso +1400
  • My Boy Jack +1500
  • Solomini +2000
  • Enticed +2150
  • Noble Indy +2250
  • Quip +3000
  • Hofburg +3000
  • Flameaway +3000
  • Free Drop Billy +3500
  • Gronkowski +4000
  • Lone Sailor +4500
  • Promises Fulfilled +5000
  • Bravazo +5000
  • Firenze Fire +5500
  • Snapper Sinclair +5750
  • Combatant +6000
  • Restoring Hope +7500
  • Reride +8500

The Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorite: Justify +370

The way Justify won the Santa Anita Derby sent his odds careening down to 5/2. Before the Santa Anita Derby, he was a 5/1 shot. Based on breeding, sired by Scat Daddy, and trainer, Bob Baffert won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah in 2015, there’s no reason to believe Justify can’t win the Kentucky Derby on May 5.

Okay. There is one reason. No horse has won the Derby after not racing at 2 since Apollo in 1882. That’s a ton of history that Justify must overcome. To overcome such history, Justify not only must be the best horse on May 5, but he must be the best horse on May 5 by leaps and bounds.

I believe that makes him a play against at low odds.

The Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Smart Pick: Mendelssohn +470

On May 5, Mendelssohn’s odds should be around 5/1 or less to win the Kentucky Derby. The UAE Derby winner is trained by Aidan O’Brien, arguably the best horse racing trainer in the world, and has the breeding to upset a horse like Justify.

Mendelssohn is a half brother to Justify. Both were sired by Scat Daddy. The difference is that Mendelssohn’s mother also birthed great mare Beholder. So, not only is Mendelssohn a half-brother to Justify, he’s also a half-brother to arguably the best mare that’s run in the United States in the past 8 years.

Worried about Mendelssohn getting the distance? Beholder won the 1 ¼ mile Pacific Classic a few years back. Mendelssohn will get the Kentucky Derby distance.

The 2018 Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick: Vino Rosso +1400

I, like everyone else, is a fan of Magnum Moon’s. The Arkansas Derby winner is trainer Todd Pletcher’s top Derby prospect heading into May 5. However, Vino Rosso, who took home the Wood Memorial, has the right to be as good as Magnum Moon on Derby Day.

Vino Rosso got bumped in the stretch and still managed to beat Enticed for the Wood Memorial trophy. He’s bred to be as good as he needs to be. He also hasn’t peaked, which is why he’s my longshot choice.

MLB Expert Picks April 23-29

MLB Expert Picks April 23-29

My MLB expert picks this week begin on Friday, April 27th. The Oakland A’s battle the Houston Astros. Can A’s ace Sean Manaea out duel Houston ace Dallas Kuechel?

On Saturday, the Yankees take on the Angels in Anaheim. Who wins when NYY and LAA throw down on Saturday?

The Angels and Yankees finish their series on Sunday night in ESPN’s nationally broadcast game. Will Yankee starter CC Sabathia do what he’s done for close to 20-years, lock down top MLB hitters?

MLB Expert Picks April 23th-29th

Oakland at Houston
When:  Friday, April 27 at 8:10 pm ET
Where: Minute Maid Park, Houston, TX

Analysis: Houston pitcher Dallas Kuechel is scheduled to take the call on Friday versus Oakland. Kuechel’s 3.10 ERA isn’t bad. His 1.38 WHIP is okay. But, his 1 and 3 straight up record is horrendous.
The A’s are listed as starting Sean Manaea. Manaea’s 1.23 ERA and .60 WHIP are terrific. His record is only 3 and 2. That means in most games Manea’s not getting the run support.

Houston on Friday is Manaea’s next start after throwing a no-hitter against the Boston Red Sox on April 21. He might be over bet in this. Even if he isn’t, there’s a good chance that Oakland’s horrible offense doesn’t do enough to beat Houston.

Pick: Houston

NY Yankees at L.A. Angels
When:  Saturday, April 28 at 9:07 pm ET
Where: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, CA
TV: FS1

Analysis: Masahiro Tanaka gets the call for the pinstripes on Saturday. Tanaka’s been cold from the mound. His ERA is a 6.45 while he’s got a 1.25 WHIP.

The Yankees batting lineup is so powerful that even though Tanaka’s got a bad ERA and a so-so WHIP, his record is 2 and 2. Could the Yankees’ bats bail out Tanaka once he gets into trouble on April 28?

I don’t think so. Why? Angels’ starter Garrett Richards has a great 3 and 0 record to go along with a nice 3.46 ERA. The Yankees have only faced Richards 17 times. They won’t know what pitches to look for.

The Angels should win by 2 runs on Saturday.

Pick: L.A. Angels

NY Yankees at L.A. Angels
When:  Sunday, April 29 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Angel Stadium of Anaheim, Anaheim, CA
TV: ESPN

Analysis: The Angels haven’t decided who starts for them on Sunday, April 29. No worries. We know who the Yankees will send to the mound, CC Sabathia. CC’s 2.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP means that he’s back, right?

Not so fast. CC’s only pitched 13 innings in 3 games. He lasted 5 innings versus Toronto on March 31. Then, he lasted 4 innings against Baltimore and 4.1 innings against Toronto in his next couple of starts.
CC can still provide more innings. He won’t happen on Sunday versus the Angels. Then, once CC leaves, the Angels should have no trouble lighting up NYY’s relievers.

Pick: L.A. Angels