Daily Archives - May 1, 2018

2018 Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

Updated 2018 Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

The post positions and morning line odds for the biggest horse race of the year are out. Who is the favorite? Is there a smarter bet? Is there a long shot that you should know about?

Justify is the early favorite at +360, but another early favorite, Magnum Moon, has my eye. The undefeated Arkansas Derby winner Magnum Moon is trained by Todd Pletcher. That alone makes Magnum Moon a horse to contend with on the First Saturday in May. But, is Magnum Moon a good bet based on his morning line odds?

2018 Kentucky Derby
144th Running of the Roses
Saturday, May 5th, 2018
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
TV Coverage: 2:30-7:20 PM ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

2018 Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks

  1. Firenze Fire +7500
  2. Free Drop Billy +3500
  3. Promises Fulfilled +5500
  4. Flameaway +4000
  5. Audible +700
  6. Good Magic +900
  7. Justify +360
  8. Lone Sailor +5000
  9. Hofburg +1450
  10. My Boy Jack +2800
  11. Bolt d’Oro +800
  12. Enticed +2500
  13. Bravazo +6000
  14. Mendelssohn +500
  15. Instilled Regard +5000
  16. Magnum Moon +750
  17. Solomini +2500
  18. Vino Rosso +1300
  19. Noble Indy +3000
  20. Combatant +6000

The 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorite:  Magnum Moon +750

There are plenty of reasons to like Magnum Moon to win the Derby on May 5. His trainer, Todd Pletcher, won the 2017 Kentucky Derby with Always Dreaming. Magnum Moon is undefeated. He’s a Grade 1 winner. He’s been working lights out and his sire, Malibu Moon, is one of the best in North America.

On the surface, it sure appears as if Magnum Moon will make his presence felt on Derby Day. Horse races are run on racetracks not on paper, though. Although on the surface it looks like Magnum Moon is a good bet think about this:  no horse has won the Derby after not racing as a 2-year-old since Apollo in 1882.

Is Magnum Moon good enough to beat that over 100-year trend? I don’t think so.

The 2018 Kentucky Derby Smart Bet:  Bolt d’Oro +800

Bolt d’Oro was a massive 3/1 chalk in the Kentucky Derby winter future book. The son of Medaglia d’Oro had no shot of catching Justify in the Santa Anita Derby. Justify got away with an easy lead. He loped along and put away his competition before the half-mile pole.

Nobody should get an easy lead on Saturday. Bolt d’Oro will be in a great position so that when he makes his patented run, he could grab the lead. Once he grabs the lead, he could be impossible to catch.

Bolt d’Oro is still the most talented horse in the 2018 Kentucky Derby. No matter what other horses this year have done, he was the best 2-year-old, he’s been one of the best 3-year-olds. I think Mick Ruis gets him to peak on May 5.   

The Long Shot Kentucky Derby Bet:  Hofburg +1450

Hofburg is from Tapit. He’s owned by Juddmonte Farms, one of the most powerful racing outfits on the planet. He’s trained by Bill Mott, the man that gave us Cigar. Hofburg should have no trouble getting the distance. He’ll also be much tighter in the Kentucky Derby than he was finishing second in the Florida Derby.

I believe he’s got a big shot at +1450.

Kentucky Derby Jockey Power Rankings

2018 Kentucky Derby Jockey/Horse Power Rankings

The 2018 Kentucky Derby is this Saturday on May 5th. Are you undecided between 2, 3 or even 4 possible picks to bet on to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby? Then you need to look past the horse to the jockey. A top-teir jockey can win on a long shot. A rookie can falter on the betting favorite. Therefore I am ranking the jockey/horse duo so you can pick a Derby winner come race day!

Kentucky Derby Jockey/Horse Power Rankings

What: 2018 Kentucky Derby
When: Saturday, May 5th, 2018
Where: Churchill Downs, Louisville, KY
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
TV Coverage: 2:30-7:20 PM ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

  1. Ryan Moore, Mendelssohn +525 – Moore is the regular rider for Irish trainer Aidan O’Brien. Think Tom Brady/Bill Belichick. That means he’s won practically every major stakes race in Europe. Churchill Downs won’t intimidate Moore. Plus, he’s on the best horse.
  2. Luis Saez, Magnum Moon +750 – No rider in North America has had as good of year, so far, as Luis Saez. Saez is good enough to boost your horse to 2 to 3 lengths.
  3. Victor Espinoza, Bolt d’Oro +850 – American Pharoah’s jockey just understands how to get horses to run their best in the Kentucky Derby. Victor’s won the Derby 3 times.
  4. Javier Castellano, Audible +600 – Castellano picks up the call on Audible after Johnny V. decided to go with Vino Rosso. Javier’s a mainstay for the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey.
  5. Johnny Velasquez, Vino Rosso +1350 – The great Johnny V. has decided to stick with the Wood Memorial winner. He’ll have Vino Rosso in a position for the win on Saturday.
  6. Mike Smith, Justify +365 – Smith is on the favorite. I know he’s a great jockey. He hasn’t always ridden his best on Derby Day, though. That’s why he’s sixth on my power rankings.
  7. Irad Ortiz, Hofburg +1500 – The Ortiz brothers show up seventh and eighth on my list. I like Hofburg a bit more than Good Magic. That’s why Irad’s ahead of Jose.
  8. Jose Ortiz, Good Magic +825 – Read what I wrote about Irad. If the real Good Magic shows up, Jose could get him into the money on May 5.
  9. Jose Lezcano, Flameaway +4500 – Lezcano is an underrated rider. He can do more with less than most jockeys.
  10. Kent Desormeaux, My Boy Jack +2000 – Desormeaux has a couple of Kentucky Derby wins on his resume. He’ll make the right move. His horse might not be good enough, though.
  11. Florent Geroux, Noble Indy +3000 – Florent Geroux rides at the Fairgrounds. He’s got some experience racing over Churchill’s dirt.
  12. Junior Alvarado, Enticed +2500 – He rode lights out at the Aqueduct meet at New York. But, Junior’s got a tough road to get Enticed into the Top 4.
  13. Flavien Prat, Solomini +2350 – Prat’s been fantastic the past few years at both Del Mar and Santa Anita. That’s why he jumps aboard Solomini.
  14. James Graham, Lone Sailor +5000 – Graham knows Churchill’s dirt better than most any other jockey on this list. If he were on a real contender, he’d be ranked higher.
  15. Paco Lopez, Firenze Fire +10000 – Paco’s one of the best speed riders in the game. When Paco’s on a speed horse, forget it. You either go with Paco, or you don’t. Too bad Firenze Fire isn’t a speed horse.
  16. Drayden Van Dyke, Instilled Regard +6000 – He’s facing the most pressure he’s ever faced as a jockey during his short career. Instilled Regard’s not a real contender, which means Drayden shows up in the bottom 5 on my rankings.
  17. Ricardo Santana, Combatant +7000 – Combatant doesn’t appear to have any shot. Santana can ride. The horse is the problem.
  18. Robby Albarado, Free Drop Billy +3500 – Free Drop Billy doesn’t have much of a shot. Not only that, but Albarado hasn’t been on top of his game in recent years.
  19. Corey Lanerie, Promises Fulfilled +5000 – He’s a good jockey. But, Corey’s dreaming if Promises Fulfilled can wire this group.
  20. Luis Contreras, Bravazo +6000 – Bravazo’s form has gone south big time. Contreras is a decent jockey. He’s done his best work riding for the Casse brother at Woodbine. Woodbine has an artificial track. There’s not a lot going for Contreras on Saturday.
2018 Preakness Odds & Picks

2018 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & ML Odds

The 2018 Kentucky Derby post positions and Morning Line odds are out. Click here for live horse racing odds. The biggest of the season race takes place on Saturday, May 5th with the post time at 6:50 PM ET.

This year’s list of contenders is deep. Several high-profile names could very well re-write Kentucky Derby history. Two of the top favorites, Justify (pictured) and Magnum Moon, will attempt to become the first winners who didn’t race as two-year-olds. The feat hasn’t been achieved since 1882 when Apollo won the Run for the Roses.

2018 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & ML Odds

2018 Kentucky Derby
144th Running of the Roses
Saturday, May 5th, 2018
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
TV Coverage: 2:30-7:20 PM ET
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

  1. Firenze Fire 50-1
  2. Free Drop Billy 30-1
  3. Promises Fulfilled 30-1
  4. Flameaway 30-1
  5. Audible 8-1
  6. Good Magic 12-1
  7. Justify 3-1
  8. Lone Sailor 50-1
  9. Hofburg 20-1
  10. My Boy Jack 30-1
  11. Bolt d’Oro 8-1
  12. Enticed 30-1
  13. Bravazo 50-1
  14. Mendelssohn 5-1
  15. Instilled Regard 50-1
  16. Magnum Moon 6-1
  17. Solomini 30-1
  18. Vino Rosso 12-1
  19. Noble Indy 30-1
  20. Combatant 50-1

AE Blended Citizen 50-1