Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Game Total Betting Analysis

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Game Total Betting Analysis

It’s Super Bowl week. The game total for over/under bets opened at 58-points and has been bet down to 56.5.

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Game Total Betting Analysis

The Rams and Patriots each ranked in the top four in scoring and top five in yards and allowed the same amount of yards per game defensively. New England’s defense ranked seventh in points allowed, the Rams 20th. Now let’s take a closer look at why betting the over or under is the smart play in Super Bowl 53.

Why Bet Super Bowl 53 Over?

Both teams score at will. The New England Patriots rank 4th in the NFL in points per game. The Patriots average 27.2 per. They scored 41 versus the L.A. Chargers in a crazy 41-28 over game. They scored 37 against the Kansas City Chiefs in a wild 37-31 over game.

The Rams are the second highest scoring team in the NFL. Los Angeles averages 32.9 points per. They beat the Dallas Cowboys 30-22 in the Divisional Playoffs in an over game.

Why Bet Super Bowl 53 Under?

Although both these teams score a lot of points, they also play decent defense. The Patriots only allow 20.3 points per on average. That ranks 7th in the NFL. Over the total went 5-11 in New England’s 16 regular season games.

The over/under went 8-8 in the Rams’ 16 regular season games. Los Angeles only allows 24 points per game on average.

Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Total Prediction

At first glance, it looks like this game should go over by a mile. After all, the Rams average over 32 points per. New England only averages 24, but they’ve stepped it up big time during the playoffs.

The over/under total has plummeted, though. If both teams can score at will if both have such creative offenses, why did the line fall so quickly?

The Pats do average a lot of points. However, they’ve developed a viable rushing attack. Sony Michel had 3 touchdowns against the Chargers. Rex Burkhead scored 2 touchdowns while Michel had another 2 touchdowns in the win over the Chiefs.

That’s 4 rushing touchdowns for the Patriots in the AFC Championship. But, New England might find it harder to rush against the Rams defensive line: Michael Brockers, Ndamukong Suh, and Aaron Donald.

That’s why under players have been all over the total. Not only can Donald, Suh, and Brockers take away the Patriots’ rushing attack, they can also pressure Brady by themselves. If linebacker Corey Littleton can cover Rob Gronkowski, that takes away a hot read. The Patriots must then come up with a game plan to beat the Rams’ secondary.

It doesn’t mean the Patriots won’t. It just means New England must play a different game than the one that led to the point explosions against the Chargers and Chiefs. Whatever the strategy ends up becoming, you can be sure New England will try to limit the Rams’ possessions, just like they limited Kansas City’s in the AFC Championship.

Mainly because of the Patriots strategy, Super Bowl 53 should go under the total.

My Super Bowl 53 Over/Under Total Final Prediction: Under 56.5

Posted in NFL
Top College Basketball Games Super Bowl Week

Top College Basketball Games Super Bowl Week

The Super Bowl is a handful of days away and I have a trio of must bet college basketball games to wet your whistle.

Top College Basketball Games Super Bowl Week

St. John’s at #2 Duke
When: Saturday, Feb. 2 at 12:00 pm ET
Where: Cameron Indoor Stadium, Durham, NC
TV: ESPN
Stream: Watch ESPN

Analysis: After starting the season looking like one of the top teams in the nation, the St. John’s Red Storm has had a terrible time keeping up with their opponents. They’ve gone 1-4 straight up and 2-3 against the spread in their last 5.

The Red Storm is 3-1-1 ATS on the road, though. They battle a Duke team on Saturday in Durham, which means the Blue Devils will be over played. Expect college basketball handicappers to drive the line up at least 2 to 3 points.

Although Duke is 7-2 overall, they’re only 11-8 against the spread. The Blue Devils are only 6-5 ATS at home. Duke will face an over 20-point spread just like they do every time they play in front of their fans. At the likely spread, St. John’s is the play.

Pick: St. John’s

#11 North Carolina at #23 Louisville
When: Saturday, Feb. 2 at 2:00 pm ET
Where: KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY
TV: ESPN

Analysis: North Carolina and Louisville fought just a few weeks ago. The Cardinals dominated the Tar Heels on the road, beating UNC 83-62. Louisville should be slightly favored on Saturday even though the Heels are ranked ahead of the Cardinals.

At home, Louisville’s been just okay against the spread. They’re a winning 6-5-2 ATS. Overall, the Cardinals are 11-7 ATS. The Tar Heels were thoroughly embarrassed at home in the loss. They’ll come out fired up.

North Carolina is 5-1 ATS in away games this season. Even if they show up as the favorite, they’re hard to go against the spread. UNC should exact their revenge.

Pick: North Carolina

#8 Kentucky at Florida
When: Saturday, Feb. 2 at 4:00 pm ET
Where: Exactech Arena, Gainesville, FL
TV: ESPN

Analysis: John Calipari’s team has definitely hit their stride. The Kentucky Wildcats have won 6 in a row. They gone 4-0 ATS in their last 4. On Saturday, they battle a team that they should have no trouble dominating.

Florida often steps it up against UK, but this time, it’s hard to see the Gators covering. Florida won’t keep it close. They’re 3-6 ATS at home while the Wildcats are on fire. Kentucky rolls to an easy win and cover as the road favorite.

Pick: Kentucky

Must Bet NBA Games Super Bowl Week

Must Bet NBA Games Super Bowl Week

We are days away from the 2019 Super Bowl but you can cash in before the big game by betting on the following trio of NBA games.

Must Bet NBA Games Super Bowl Week

Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors
When: Thursday, Jan. 31 at 8:00 pm ET
Where: Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, ON, CA
TV: TNT
Stream: TNT Overtime

Analysis: Few NBA games mean as much this week as Milwaukee at Toronto on Thursday, the final day of January. The Bucks are 35-12 while the Raptors are 36-15. Even if Toronto wins all their games this week and the Bucks lose before Thursday, Milwaukee will maintain at least a game lead over the Raptors.

The Bucks have been great against the spread this season. They’re an excellent 26-18-3 overall and a winning 10-9-2 ATS on the road. Heading into the week, Milwaukee has gone 3-2-1 ATS in their last 6, though.

Toronto is 3-1 ATS in their last 4 heading into the week. The Raptors are only 23-28 against the spread and a losing 12-13 ATS at home. Because Toronto beat Milwaukee 123-116 in the last game between these two, there’s a good chance they’re overplayed in this.

Take the points on the Bucks.

Pick: Milwaukee Bucks

Philadelphia 76ers at Golden State Warriors
When: Thursday, Jan. 31 at 10:30 pm ET
Where: Oracle Arena, Oakland, CA
TV: TNT

Analysis: Although 76ers at Warriors doesn’t mean as much as Bucks at Raptors, basketball fans are giddy about Thursday’s second TNT televised matchup. The 76ers have stamped themselves as a real Eastern Conference contender.

However, Philadelphia doesn’t cover a lot of spreads. The 76ers are 23-27 ATS overall. They’re 9-15 against the spread in away games. The Warriors aren’t a great covering team, either.

Golden State is only 22-26-1 ATS overall. The Warriors are a bad 10-13-1 ATS at home. Golden State beat the 76ers by 8 on Nov. 18, but they won’t beat the 76ers by enough to cover the spread on Thursday because they’ll be horribly overplayed. Taking the points again.

Pick: Philadelphia 76ers

Oklahoma City Thunder at Boston Celtics
When: Sunday, Feb. 3 at 2:00 pm ET
Where: TD Garden, Boston, MA
TV: ABC
Stream: Watch ESPN

Analysis: The Thunder have been on a tear, winning 4 in a row and going 3-1 ATS in the process. By Sunday, Oklahoma City will have battled Milwaukee, Orlando, and Miami. That could set the Thunder up for failure both SU and ATS.

Boston’s gone 5-1 straight up in their last 6. Their only loss was to the Golden State Warriors by 4 points as a 3.5 home dog. The Celtics are 16-9 ATS at home. They should win and cover on Super Bowl Sunday.

Pick: Boston Celtics

Posted in NBA