Super Bowl LIV Odds & Picks

Super Bowl LIV Odds & Picks

The 2019 NFL Draft is in the books making it a perfect time to look at the updated Super Bowl odds and who the betting favorites, contenders and long shots are.

Super Bowl LIV Odds & Picks

Super Bowl Betting Favorites

New England Patriots +600
Kansas City Chiefs +850
New Orleans Saints +1035

The defending champion New England Patriots are the +600 betting favorite to win Super Bowl 2020. No Gronk. Josh Gordon is a question mark. The Pats have done more with less before, and they always draft smartly.

Will Tyreek Hill play in 2019? Can KC replace Kareem Hunt’s numbers? Will Patrick Mahomes suffer from growing pains in his second year as a starter? Oddsmakers are slightly concerned after downgrading the Chiefs to the second Super Bowl betting favorite. KC was the early betting favorite.

Super Bowl Betting Contenders

Los Angeles Rams +1350
Cleveland Browns +1350
Indianapolis Colts +1600
Philadelphia Eagles +1675
Chicago Bears +1700
Los Angeles Chargers +1800
Green Bay Packers +2000
Minnesota Vikings +2500
Dallas Cowboys +2600
Pittsburgh Steelers +2700
Seattle Seahawks +3300
Houston Texans +3600
Atlanta Falcons +3600
San Francisco 49ers +3800
Baltimore Ravens +4250
Jacksonville Jaguars +4400

Super Bowl Betting Long Shot Picks

Carolina Panthers +6000
New York Jets +7500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8000
Oakland Raiders +8000
Denver Broncos +8500
Tennessee Titans +8500
New York Giants +9000
Buffalo Bills +10000
Detroit Lions +12500
Washington Redskins +15000
Arizona Cardinals +15000
Cincinnati Bengals +18500
Miami Dolphins +27500

Posted in NFL
Long Shot Kentucky Derby Picks

Long Shot Kentucky Derby Picks

It’s Derby week and if you love backing a long shot, there are three Kentucky Derby long shots you need to look at.

Long Shot Kentucky Derby Picks

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: Spinoff +2500

The second place finisher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, Spinoff has all the makings of a major Kentucky Derby upset winner. His sire, Hard Spun, finished second in the Kentucky Derby while his broodmare, Zaftig, was sired by Gone West. Hard Spun on top and Gone West on the bottom means that Spinoff should relish the 1 ¼ mile distance.

But, that’s not the only reason to like his chances on May 4. Spinoff is trained by the great Todd Pletcher. Pletcher is considered one of the very best trainers in the world. He’s won the Kentucky Derby twice with Super Saver and Always Dreaming. Also, Spinoff has a ton of room to improve because the La Derby was only his fourth-lifetime race. Beware the Pletcher runner at big odds.

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: Tax +2500

It’s difficult to understand how Tacitus could be +800 and Tax could be +2500. Tacitus beat Tax by only 1 and a quarter lengths in the Wood Memorial. Not only that, but Tax might have won the race if jockey Junior Alvarado had tried different tactics aboard him. Alvarado didn’t blow the ride by any means. However, if he had placed Tax closer to the front runners in the Wood, and had tried to take over sooner, he might have put too much distance between himself and Tacitus for that one to have made up.

Tax has never run a bad race. He’s 2-2-1 from 5 races and because he’s sired by Arch, he should have the lung capacity to run all day. He offers ridiculously high odds to win the Kentucky Derby, and, getting back to the pilot, Alvarado seems to have taken a forward leap as a jockey in 2019. He’s one of the top 10 riders in the U.S. for sure.

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: By My Standards +2500

I’m not sure how much attention those who believe By My Standards has no shot paid to the Louisiana Derby. Many feel the La Derby was a weak prep. It looks like a strong prep after watching By My Standards run by Spinoff along the rail to secure the victory.

The Bret Calhoun trainee just broke his maiden on February 16. Maybe, that’s why everybody’s decrying his chances. This is horse racing, though, and the fact that a last out maiden winner managed to win a Grade 2 means one of two things: either the La Derby really was full of bad horses, or By My Standards has figured things out.

Thoroughbreds are just like human athletes. They must develop and figure out the game in which they play. By My Standards may have done that. If he has, he could improve enough on Derby Day to win.

Baseball Top Bets July 27 - Aug 2

MLB Betting Analysis April 29 – May 5

The 2019 MLB season is in full swing. If you are betting on baseball this week, look to the three games that I am betting on.

MLB Betting Analysis April 29 – May 5

Houston Astros at Minnesota Twins
When: Wednesday, May 1 at 8:00pm ET
Where: Target Field, Minneapolis, MN

Analysis: A couple of division leaders battle on Wednesday when the Astros head north to Target Field to take on the Minnesota Twins. As of April 27, Houston is tied with Seattle atop the AL West. The Twins are 1.5 games ahead of Cleveland in the AL Central as of April 27.

The Astros list pitcher Collin McHugh has their Wednesday starter. McHugh threw well in his first 4 starts this season, but he’s had trouble in his last couple of starts. Texas dominated him with 9 earned runs off 8 hits in 3.1 innings while Cleveland torched him for 3 earned runs off 4 hits in 5.2 innings. The Twins bat .265 against McHugh.

Even though Perez is 3-0 with a 4.44 ERA, the Astros hit well against Perez with a .283 batting average. If McHugh can put together 5 just okay innings, that could be enough for the Stros to take this.

Pick: Houston Astros

St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs
When: Saturday, May 4 at 4:05pm ET
Where: Wrigley Field, Chicago, IL

Analysis: St. Louis listed starter Michael Wacha should be off the 10-day DL in time to get a game in before this Saturday matchup with the rival Cubs. Wacha hasn’t had great success versus Chicago, though.

The Cubs bat .331 against him. Chicago has 54 hits form 163 at-bats. They’ve hit 10 home runs against Wacha, have batted in 33 runs, and have a .997 OPS against him. Wacha could get into some trouble early on Saturday and he might not be able to rely on the Cardinals’ bats to bail him out.

Although Cubs’ starter Yu Darvish has a 5.02 ERA and a 1.57 WHIP, his form might finally have come around. Darvish was sensational in his last start, a 9-1 Cubs victory over the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Darvish threw 6 innings and gave up only a single earned run off a home run. He gave up 2 hits total, walked 4, and struck out 8. If Darvish throws another gem, the Cubs should easily win. They’ll have a shot to beat St. Louis even if Darvish leaves early because Wacha should give up a few runs.

Pick: Chicago Cubs

Houston Astros at Los Angeles Angels
When: Sunday, May 5 at 4:10pm ET
Where: Angels Stadium, Anaheim, CA

Analysis: Astros listed starter Justin Verlander has faced LAA batters 203 times. He’s dominated with 62 strikeouts and holds the Angels to a .167 batting average. Verlander is also 4-0 this season with a 2.61 ERA.

Angels listed starter Matt Harvey has a 6.54 ERA and a 1.39 WHIP. He’s only faced Astros batters 10 times. However, he’s given up 6 hits in those 10 at-bats. Houston looks like an easy winner on Sunday. We might want to back the Stros on the run line because no way they’re dogs versus Harvey and the Los Angeles Angels.

Pick: Houston Astros run line

Posted in MLB