Winning your NFL bets is a great feeling. Winning bets when you pick the underdog is even better because you beat the odds. Use my bold NFL Week 3 upset picks to cash in big this week.
Upset Picks NFL Week 3
Can Deshaun Watson put on a show in his first game against Tom Brady and the New England Patriots?
Can the Los Angeles Chargers avoid finding a new way to lose another heartbreaker when they host Kansas City?
Last but not least, which team is the right pick when the Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde Cardinals host the equally perplexing Dallas Cowboys?
If you’ve got questions heading into Week 3 of the 2017 NFL regular season, then I’ve got answers.
Houston Texans (1-1) at New England Patriots (1-1)
When: Sunday, September 24 at 1:00 PM ET
Where: Gillette Stadium
NFL Odds: Houston +13
Analysis: The Houston Texans didn’t look like ‘world-beaters’ by any stretch of the imagination, but they did manage to pick up a solid 13-9 road win as a 5.5-point road underdog over Cincinnati as rookie signal-caller Deshaun Watson made his debut as an NFL starter.
Tom Brady and New England absolutely pummeled Drew Brees and the defenseless New Orleans Saints in their 36-20 Week 2 win while covering the spread as a 5.5-point road favorite.
For this Week 3 pairing of AFC Super Bowl hopefuls, I’m going to urge you to simply back the Texans to cover the nearly two-touchdown spread, simply because they have an elite defense that won’t allow Tom Brady and company to simply march up and down the field the way the pitiful Saints defense did this past Sunday.
Houston may be averaging just 10.0 points per game, but their defense has been rock-solid in allowing just 19.0 points per contest so far. New England may be 7-1 ATS in their last eight games against the Texans, but that was then and now, Houston has a legitimate defense – and a competent – if still young, quarterback under center in Watson. I’m expecting this Week 3 affair to turn into a dogfight and you should too!
NFL Week 3 Upset Pick: Houston +13
Kansas City Chiefs (2-0) at L.A. Chargers (0-2)
When: Sunday, September 24, at 4:25 PM ET
Where: StubHub Center
NFL Odds: LA Chargers +2.5
Analysis: One team (Kansas City) finds ways to win games while the other (L.A.) keeps finding new ways to lose in heartbreaking fashion, generally by a touchdown or less. The Chiefs moved to 2-0 by beating Philadelphia 27-20 in Week 2 as running back Kareem Hunt broke free for a 53-yard touchdown run with 1:20 remaining in the third quarter to give the Chiefs a 13-10 lead they would never give up after a tight first half. Veteran quarterback Alex Smith completed 21 of 28 passes for 251 yards with one touchdown and Hunt finished with 81 rushing yards and two scores while Pro Bowl tight end Travis Kelcie caught eight passes for 103 yards and one score.
The Chargers lost to Miami as Fins kicker Cody Parkey nailed his fourth field goal of the game from 54 yards out with just 65 seconds remaining. Veteran quarterback Philip Rivers completed 31 of 39 passes for 282 yards with a touchdown, but the Bolts were limited to just seven second-half points while never scoring in the fourth quarter.
Kansas City has won six straight over Los Angeles and will make it seven in a row by controlling Rivers and company while getting just enough offense from Alex Smith and company to make another win stand up. The Chiefs are also 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Chargers and 5-1 ATS in their last six road dates against the Bolts! It’s that simple people!
NFL Week 3 Upset Pick: Kansas City -2.5
Dallas Cowboys at Arizona Cardinals
When: Sunday, September 24 at 8:30 PM ET
Where: University of Phoenix Stadium
NFL Odds: Arizona +3.5
Analysis: The Cowboys got completely manhandled in their humbling 42-17 road loss against Denver in Week 2 while never coming close to covering the spread as a 2.5-point road dog while Arizona looked mostly awful in sneaking past the pitiful Indianapolis Colts 16-13 in overtime.
Dallas let Broncos quarterback Trevor Siemian toss four TD passes in the loss while Ezekiel Elliott got completely shut down to the tune of eight rushing yards on nine carries. Arizona nearly fell to Indianapolis in Jacoby Brissett’s first career start but got the win on Phil Dawson’s 30-yard field goal with 8:02 remaining in overtime.
For this Week 3 NFC battle, I’m going to urge you to back the Arizona Cardinals to get it done, mostly because they’re at home and just can;t play any worse offensively than they did this past weekend. With both of these playoff hopefuls allowing more points per game than they are averaging right now, I say take the lesser of two evils.
Dallas is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine games and 1-4 ATS in its last five road games. Arizona has won seven of their last eight meetings against Dallas and is 4-1 ATS in their last five against the Boys. I love the Cardinals as a surprising home dog in this one!
NFL Week 3 Upset Pick: Arizona +2.5