Is Betting on Marcos Maidana To Beat Floyd Mayweather A Fool's Bet?

Is Betting on Marcos Maidana To Beat Floyd Mayweather A Fool’s Bet?

I’ve seen a ton of footage of WBA welterweight champion Marcos Maidana (35-3, 31 KO’s) in recent days and I have to admit that the surprisingly powerful Argentinean is pretty damned talented. I mean, the guy didn’t put together such a fine record by accident, so he must stand a decent chance to upset undefeated WBC welterweight champion Floyd Mayweather (45-0, 26 KO’s) right? 

Well, before we jump to conclusions, let’s take a brief look at just how legitimate Maidana’s chances actually are. 

Floyd Mayweather Vs. Marcos Rene Maidana
Floyd Mayweather is a huge favorite and Marcos Maidana a huge underdog as boxing betting returns to a rare spotlight Saturday on SHOWTIME Sports in a 12 round fight.
Starts: 05/03/2014 11:00PM
MGM Grand, 3799 S Las Vegas Blvd
Las VegasNevada

Floyd Mayweather Vs. Marcos Rene Maidana Boxing Odds

  • Floyd Mayweather -1000
  • Marcos Maidana +650

First and foremost, Maidana is coming off a very impressive unanimous decision upset win over former champ Adrian Broner on December 14 at the Alamodome in San Antonio. The win handed the soon-to-be 31-year-old welterweight the WBA portion of the welterweight title.

Prior to that, Maidana won each of his previous three fights, but that’s not what bothers me and what boxing bettors really need to look at prior to this bout. What interests me most is the fact that Maidana has been outclassed in each of his three career losses, but mostly his last two against opponents that have some skills in common with Mayweather.

Yes, Marcos Maidana has a bunch of punching power in both hands, but his last two losses to respected veteran Amir Khan in December of 2010 and Devon Alexander in February of 2012, tells me all I need to know about this matchup.

I don’t know how else to say it, but Maidana was pretty much toyed with by the superior Khan throughout their fight. Khan came close to ending this bout with a first round knock-down that came on a vicious body shot while he himself was never, ever in danger. Khan’s fight plan was quite simple as he basically out-pointed the hard-hitting, but much slower Maidana.

Against Alexander, Maidana looked even worse in my opinion as he clutched and grabbed Alexander throughout the fight while never coming close to unleashing the punching power he has become known for.

Now, I will say that Maidana’s upset win over Adrian Broner wasn’t exactly what I’d call lucky, but the fact of the matter is that Broner isn’t close to the caliber of fighter that Floyd Mayweather is and oddsmakers apparently agree that this fight is more of a mismatch than a matchup.

If you go back and look at tape of Amir Khan’s win over Maidana, you’ll notice how he easily out-pointed his opponent with his superior hand speed and reach advantage.

I fully expect Floyd Mayweather to use similar tactics against Maidana as he never lets himself get in trouble defensively while outclassing his South American foe with his superior hand speed, footwork and defensive skills.

Make no mistake about it boxing bettors, Floyd Mayweather is superior to Marcos Maidana in every single facet of boxing including the one area that Maidana can usually count on holding the edge in…punching power.

Floyd Mayweather isn’t particularly likable, but he is extremely skilled and he absolutely embarrassed Saul “Canelo” Alvarez in September despite getting just a majority decision win.

If Mayweather embarrassed Alvarez so easily in his last bout – and Alvarez is basically a younger and bigger version of Maidana – then things don’t look very promising here for the Argentine.

Besides, whenever I hear a champion boxer repeatedly praising his opponent and how their bout will be a ‘real’ fight, then I basically come to the conclusion that it’s going to be a lopsided affair.

“Adrien Broner’s a good boxer and he roughed Adrien Broner up and he got to victory, so we can’t say what this guy, what he can or he can’t do,” Mayweather said in a pre-fight conference call a couple of weeks back.

“We cannot overlook the guy. I can’t just say he’s going to be an easy fight because he’s not going to be an easy fight for me, I don’t think so. What I have to do is I’ve got to make sure that I’m at my best. So May 3 I’ve got to go out there and take my time, keep my composure and be me. Everybody thinks he’s just going to be a pushover, but I don’t think so. That’s why I’m training hard and I’m pushing myself to the limit every day.”

Maybe it’s me, but it sure sounds like Mayweather is trying to convince himself that Maidana presents a genuine challenge and that in itself says that, yes, betting on Marcos Maidana in this bout is as big of a ‘fool’s bet’ as it gets.

Floyd Mayweather wins this bout and wins it handily.