The PGA Tour is continuing its northerly swing with the Rocket Mortgage Classic heading to Michigan this week. Click here for updated golf odds.
Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds and Favorite, Smart, Long Shot Picks
Favorite Betting Pick: Webb Simpson +1010
It makes sense that Webb Simpson would offer the lowest odds to win this week’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. Simpson has three Top 5 finishes in the four tournaments he’s played in this year.
He won two of those tournaments, the Waste Management Phoenix Open in February, and the RBC Heritage a couple of weeks ago. Both victories impressed.
The RBC Heritage win was more impressive, though. Webb had a terrible showing at the Charles Schwab Challenge, the first PGA Tournament after the shutdown due to the coronavirus pandemic.
Webb missed the cut at the Colonial Country Club after shooting a first-round 73 and a second-round 69. He bounced back just a week later at the RBC.
How good was Simpson at the RBC Heritage? He shot a -22 after a 65-65-68-64. Webb’s -22 put him a stroke ahead of Abraham Ancer and two strokes ahead of Daniel Berger and Tyrell Hatton.
But although it’s right to favor Simpson heading to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic, we can’t blindly back the chalk.
Webb didn’t play in last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic. He doesn’t have a ton of experience playing at Detroit GC.
Not only that, but Simpson withdrew from the Travelers Championship after a family member tested positive for Covid-19.
Will Webb’s mind be on golf this week? We’re looking elsewhere.
Smart Betting Pick: Hideki Matsuyama +1800
So far, Matsuyama’s return to the golf course has not yielded positive results. Then again, Hideki only played at the RBC Heritage. He didn’t play at the Charles Schwab.
Matsuyama didn’t tee off at the Travelers Championship. It makes sense that Hideki shot a 74 and 70 at the RBC. Missing the cut isn’t a big deal.
We must assume that Matsuyama decided to take last week off to prepare for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Based on his 2019 performance over Detroit GC, that also makes sense. Matsuyama shot a -15. That was 15 strokes off runaway winner Nate Lashley’s -25. But it was only 4 strokes off second place finisher Doc Redman.
Hideki was just 3 strokes off third place finishers Wes Roach and Rory Sabbatini. If Matsuyama is on his game, he can win this tournament.
Long Shot Betting Pick: Rory Sabbatini +4500
The other golfing Rory had a great 2019 Rocket Mortgage Classic. Shooting a -18 is big. Sabbatini has also hit the ball well in his first two tournaments played since the pandemic.
Rory shot a -10 to finish fourteenth at the Charles Schwab Challenge. He shot a -14 at the RBC Heritage to finish twenty-first. Both finishes should give him confidence heading to Detroit.
So, we’re getting +4500 on a golfer in decent form who tore up the course last year. Sounds like the recipe for an underdog win bet.