2015 Breeders Cup Clasic Win/Place/Show PicksJosh Bailey
Not only is this Saturday Halloween, but it’s also the day when Triple Crown winner American Pharoah attempts to glide into the history books. Will the Bob Baffert trained runner win the Grand Slam what many racing analysts are referring to as the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Belmont Stakes, and the Breeders’ Cup Classic? Click here for the Breeders Cup Classic Morning Line odds.
If he does, American Pharoah will go down as one of the greatest race horses of all time. If he doesn’t, American Pharoah might go down as a Triple Crown winner who couldn’t beat a girl. That’s right. American Pharoah’s biggest competition in the Classic is five-year-old mare Beholder. Is Halloween Day going to be a nightmare for the Triple Crown winner?
My 2015 Win/Place/Show Picks For The Breeders Cup Classic
Win: Beholder 3/1
There are too many superlatives in the English language to describe how brilliant Beholder is. The Richard Mandella trained daughter of Henny Hughes has a lifetime record of 15 wins and 3 second place finishes from 20 starts. She’s already won over $4.436 million dollars. But that’s not really makes her special. What makes Beholder more special than any horse in the 2015 Breeders’ Cup Classic is the fact that she can cruise at a higher speed than American Pharoah. When jockey Gary Stevens pushes the button on her, she accelerates faster than American Pharoah. What’s crazier is that Stevens can let up and then reaccelerate her depending on how far the competition is behind her.
She’s like poetry in motion. That alone makes her the top pick in this. She’s run faster than American Pharoah, can take the lead or sit off, and has more experience against tougher competition. She’s also one of the likeliest winners on Saturday’s Breeders’ Cup Day card.
Place: American Pharoah 6/5
It’s hard to bet against the Triple Crown winner. This is especially true since American Pharoah ran his final work in 6 furlongs in 1:10. That’s blazing fast for a work. AP is on top of his toes for the Classic. He no doubt is going to fire his best shot.
But, there are some knocks. Although it looked like he was breezing in the Belmont after getting away with easy fractions, he’s likely to face slightly more pace pressure here. This is especially true since he could be sandwiched in between Frosted on his left and Beholder on his right. There isn’t a lot of other speed outside of those three save for Smooth Roller.
If Smooth Roller decides to go with American Pharoah early, the race will set up for Frosted, Gleneagles and Beholder. American Pharoah is going to find it very difficult to win this race. Maybe, he’s so talented that he can hold off a classy mare like Beholder. The guess here is that he won’t, though. Swallowing low odds on a horse that has a lot to prove is never a wise thing to do.
Show: Effinex 30/1
Gleneagles, Frosted, Tonalist, Smooth Roller and Keen Ice could all finish third in this race. But, Effinex has the pedigree, style, and guts (when his mind is right!) to finish third at what should be close to 50 to 1 odds in this. Effinex is an absolute monster of a horse. He’s huge and has a ton of talent. The problem is that sometimes he just decides to give up in a race like when he did when losing by 6 ½ lengths to Liam’s Map in the Woodward. Effinex was fractious in the gate in that one. Then, in his last race, he got bumped at the start.
If Effinex gets a clean break, he’ll only be about 3 ½ to 4 lengths off of likely pace setter American Pharoah. That will put him either 2 lengths off of Beholder or in the same flight as Beholder. He could do some damage to the favorites on Saturday.