2015 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds & Betting Analysis

Heading into Saturday’s Kentucky Derby everything is coming up roses for jockey Victor Espinoza who looks to capture his second straight run for the roses at Churchill Downs. This year, Espinoza will sit atop the early odds on favorite to win the 141st Kentucky Derby: American Pharoah (5/2). And now Espinoza and American Pharoah get to start the race from the less troublesome 18th pole position out of 20 runners.

“I definitely didn’t want to be the one horse, that’s for sure,” said Espinoza. “I mean, I don’t think it matters, but just to be safe. I feel more comfortable to be on the outside.”

Gato Del Sol in 1982 is the only horse to win from the 18th post but Baffert, who has won the race three times, took the draw pretty much in stride.

“As long as there’s been a winner (from that gate). I didn’t want to carry that with me. But it takes a good horse to win it. I mean the break is going to be so important.”

Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby in 2014 atop California Chrome, winner of the first two legs of the Triple Crown. His first Kentucky Derby win came in 2002 with War Emblem, when he teamed with trainer Bob Baffert. The two are together again in 2015, with Baffert training American Pharoah. The combo of jockey and horse has not let a challenger get close to them in their four wins, most recently an eight-length romp in the Arkansas Derby.

Baffert said Dortmund, a strapping horse who has won all six of his races, can handle an inside start from No. 8 under Martin Garcia’s reins.

Event: 2015 Kentucky Derby
Date: May 02, 2015 
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. ET 
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Stadium: Churchill Downs
TV Info: NBC
Stream: Watch The Kentucky Derby

2015 Kentucky Derby Morning Line Odds & Betting Analysis

The Favorites To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

post position – runner – odds

18 – American Pharoah – 5/2

Some think he’s the next coming of Secretariat. If he is, the draw shouldn’t be an issue.

6 – Dortmund – 3/1

He go the perfect draw. His running style says he should stay away from trouble. This guy is the pick out of the Top 3 morning line choices.

2 – Carpe Diem – 8/1

He’s the biggest underlay on the board. There’s just no reason to think that Carpe Diem is going to run the best race of his life on May 2. He’ll have to run the best race of his life in order to beat American Pharoah, Dortmund, and some of the others in here.

They Could Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

10 – Firing Line – 12/1

He almost beat Dortmund and won the Sunland Derby by 14 ½ lengths. Who says that he can’t improve on Derby Day?

3 – Materiality – 12/1

This horse has the highest Beyer Speed Figure of any of the other horses in the field. Sure, there’s the 2-year-old curse, but Materiality doesn’t know about the curse.

15 – Frosted – 15/1

Frosted’s best race was his last, a win in the Wood Memorial. When three-year-olds get good, they can stay good for a long time. Frosted could be the wise-guy choice on Saturday.

19 – Upstart – 15-1

He could be going into the Derby on a 3 race win streak. They unfairly took him down in the Fountain of Youth Stakes. Then, he got bumped by Materiality in the Florida Derby. He shouldn’t be 15 to 1 in this.

6 – Mubtaahij – 20/1

His UAE Derby was awesome. He’s shown an affinity for dirt. Sure, there’s no telling if he’s good enough to beat Dortmund and American Pharoah, but he was sired by Dubawi and his father was Dubai Millenium. He could be the real deal.

12 – International Star – 20/1

He’s won 3 races in a row. He hasn’t run very fast in any of them, but who cares? He’s a closer, grinder type, which means that he runs as fast as he needs to win.

I Would Be Shocked All The Way To The Bank If They Won The 2015 Kentucky Derby

4 – Tencendur – 30/1

His second-place finish in the Wood Memorial was the best race of his life. If he can improve off of that, who knows? Still, tough to back after only 1 race.

9 – Bolo – 30/1

He’ll need to get much faster than what he showed in the San Felipe and the Santa Anita Derby.

5 – Danzig Moon – 30/1

Sure, he finished second to Carpe Diem in the Bluegrass Stakes, but was that because he’s a good horse or because Carpe Diem is overrated?

7 – El Kabier – 30/1

He hasn’t really gotten any faster or any slower since starting his three-year-old campaign. What it means is that he’s going to have to be really fast on Derby Day.

The Betting Longshots To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

• 1 – Ocho Ocho Ocho – 50/1
• 11 – Stanford – 30/1
• 13 – Itsaknockout – 30/1
• 14 – Keen Ice – 50/1
• 16 – War Story – 50/1
• 17 – Mr. Z – 50/1
• 20 – Far Right – 30/1

Here are the complete odds 2015 Kentucky Derby betting odds & post positions as of Friday

The Kentucky Derby post time is approx 6:25 p.m. (ET) on Saturday