2015 Kentucky Derby Win/Place/Show Picks

2015 Kentucky Derby Win/Place/Show Picks

The 141st Kentucky Derby will be run on Saturday at Churchill Downs in Louisville, Ky with American Pharoah as a 5-2 favorite in the 1 1/4 mile race from post position 18. Call it a good omen or big horseshoes to fill, but last year’s winner, California Chrome, entered the race as the favorite at 5-2. Click here to view the full Kentucky Derby betting morning line and post positions.

The most famous of Kentucky Derby bets might be the coveted Win/Place/Show bet.

Win: If you wager $2 to Win on your horse, you collect only if your horse finished first.
Place: If you wager $2 to Place, your horse must finish first or second for you to collect. But remember, you don’t get the Win payoff, just the Place payoff, which is generally smaller than the win payoff.
Show: If you wager $2 to Show, your horse must finish first, second, or third. But remember, you only collect the Show payoff.

If you are looking for an edge on your Derby Win/Place/Show bets, use my picks to win your Kentucky Derby bets this weekend for the 141st running of the roses.

Event: 2015 Kentucky Derby
Date: May 02, 2015 
Start Time: 10:30 p.m. ET 
Location: Louisville, Kentucky
Stadium: Churchill Downs
TV Info: NBC
Stream: Watch The Kentucky Derby

A Closer Look At My 2015 Kentucky Derby Win/Place/Show Picks

Bet Dortmund To Win The 2015 Kentucky Derby

Trained by Bob Baffert, Dortmund (pictured) has done nothing wrong in 6 races. What’s crazy is that based on Beyer Speed Figures he appears to have gotten better from race to race. After breaking his maiden, Baffert immediately put him into an optional claiming $75K event where he promptly won by 7 ¾ lengths. He then won the G1 Los Alamitos Futurity. In the Grade 3 Bob and Beverly Lewis, Dortmund responded after being headed by Firing Line by going up the rail and retaking the lead. There aren’t a lot of thoroughbreds that have guts like that. His prep for this, a beautiful victory in the G1 Santa Anita Derby, was another incredible victory simply because he bobbled at the start, found a way to get the lead, and won by 4 ½ lengths.

Bet Mubtaahij To Place In The 2015 Kentucky Derby

This son of Dubawi trained by Michael de Kock and owned by Godolphin is a dirt horse. Yes, his bloodlines say that he should relish the grass much more than the dirt, but a quick look at his running lines suggests that dirt has always been his preferred surface. Mubtaahij looked sensational when winning the UAE Derby by a stunning 8 lengths. He’s got a record of 4 wins and a second out of 5 races over dirt. The finishing time in the UAE Derby, 1 3/16 miles in 1:58.1 seems slow, but Meydan is a different dirt track than other dirt tracks. It’s hard to calculate how fast Mubtaahij ran in comparison to other Derby contenders. Visually, he was incredibly impressive.

Bet American Pharaoh To Show In The 2015 Kentucky Derby

Another horse trained by Bob Baffert will no doubt go off as a 7/5 to 8/5 favorite. That makes him a play against for the win slot simply because this is a seriously talented group of 20 three year olds. If American Pharaoh had a specific style, going to lead and sitting off like California Chrome last year, he might be a lock to win this. But, he doesn’t. In fact, it’s difficult to imagine Dortmund, who loves to run on the lead, and American Pharaoh both duking it out up front. A situation could arise where jockey Victor Espinoza leaves American Pharaoh too much to do at the top of the stretch. That makes the chalk the choice to finish third, not first.

Post time on Saturday is 6:25 p.m. PT. Here are the updated odds as of Wednesday evening.

Post position Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Ocho Ocho Ocho Elvis Trujillo Jim Cassidy 40/1
2 Carpe Diem John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 7/1
3 Materiality Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 12/1
4 Tencendur Manny Franco George Weaver 66/1
5 Danzig Moon Julien Leparoux Mark Casse 40/1
6 MubTaaqhij Christophe Soumillion Mike de Kock 14/1
7 El Kabeir Calvin Borel John Terranova II 33/1
8 Dortmund Martin Garcia Bob Baffert 9/2
9 Bolo Rafael Bejarano Carla Gaines 40/1
10 Firing Line Gary Stevens Simon Callaghan 18/1
11 Stanford Florent Geroux Todd Pletcher 66/1
12 International Star Miguel Mena Mike Maker 18/1
13 Itsaknockout Luis Saez Todd Pletcher 33/1
14 Keen Ice Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 50/1
15 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin 18/1
16 War Story Joe Talamo Tom Amoss 50/1
17 Mr. Z Ramon Vazquez D. Wayne Lukas 40/1
18 American Pharoah Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert 9/4
19 Upstart Jose Ortiz Rick Violette Jr. 22/1
20 Far Right Mike Smith Ron Moquett 33/1