Kentucky Derby winner American Pharoah has been given the top odds, at 4-5, but a the very unfavourable No. 1 post position for the 2015 Preakness Stakes, a position from which only one horse has won the race in the last fifty four tries.
"I never like the 1 hole," trainer Bob Baffert, who has won the Preakness five times, said. "That’s the first time I’ve ever drawn the rail here. I’ve been so lucky. You don’t like to see it, but if he’s the best horse we’ll find out."
It is all but certain that jockey Victor Espinoza, will have to run the horse using a different style for the 1 3/16th-mile race than the Kentucky Derby, when he tracked Dortmund and Firing Line from the outside before sweeping past them in the stretch.
If you are uncertain of American Pharoah’s Preakness chances, then you may want to cash in using my 2015 Preakness Stakes Pick-4 betting prediction to pad you wallet.
An In-Depth Look At My 2015 Preakness Stakes OTB Winning Pick-4 Prediction
Event: 2015 Preakness Stakes
Date: May. 16, 2015
Start Time: 6:18 PM ET
Location: Pimlico Raceway, Baltimore, Maryland
TV Info: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
My best wager is a Pick 4 that starts in Race 10 and ends in the Preakness Stakes, Race 13.
Race 10 – Chick Lang Stakes
The Todd Pletcher trainee is likely to go off as the favorite in the race. Although he failed miserably in the Gotham, he came back with a nice victory in an allowance race at Parx. He could go gate to wire in this.
After breaking his maiden, this horse finished second in a $50K Allowance Optional Claimer at Gulfstream Park. He should be dueling with Blame Jim well into the stretch.
Race 11 – The Very One
Ageless should get a perfect stalking trip behind the speed. She can close from well off, 4 to 6 lengths off, in this 5 furlong race and still win it. She’s a turf sprinting specialist that has to be included.
Joya Real is the likely horse to pick up the pieces if the pace is too swift and Ageless doesn’t fire. This Kathleen Demasi trainee has a win and a second place finish out of 2 races at 5 furlongs over the turf.
Here’s another that could lay around 2 lengths off the pace before making a run to the wire. If the speed runs itself out, Shrinking Violet might be able to get to the finish line first.
6-Jewel of the Cat
The Ben Perkins Jr. trainee gets the services of John Velasquez for the run in The Very One. Jewel of the Cat is the speed of the speed. If no other jockey goes with Johnny V., he’ll steal this.
Race 12 – Logines Dixie Stakes
This Eddie Kenneally trained 5-year-old gelding finished second to War Correspondent in a Grade 3 before finishing second to Jack Milton in the Grade 1 Maker’s Mark Mile. Jockey Julien Leparoux is as good as there is on the turf.
Legendary doesn’t always like to run on soft turf or yielding turf. If it doesn’t rain on May 16, Legendary could go back to his best form. His best form might be good enough for him to win this.
The 7-year-old gelding should benefit from the jockey switch from Luis Saez to Gary Stevens. Stevens is a more aggressive rider, meaning that he’s going to put Manchurian High into the race much earlier than what Saez would have probably done. That should give Manchurian High a better shot at the win.
11-Up With the Birds
There’s no telling how the Graham Motion trainee is going to react after the debacle in the G1 Japan Cup from last November. If he’s anywhere close to where he was, though, he’ll be a contender to win this.
Race 13 – Preakness Stakes
The Derby winner looks set to win the Preakness Stakes. Since 2000, 7 out of 15 Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness Stakes including I’ll Have Another in 2012 and California Chrome in 2014. History is on American Pharoah’s side.
Jockey Martin Garcia figures to force Victor Espinoza’s hand early on in this race. Garcia’s job is to beat American Pharoah. He could very well do that by pinning American Pharoah in early or forcing American Pharoah to go wide.
Why can’t the second place finisher in the Derby turn the tables on the winner? Firing Line got the much better draw out of the two and he should be closer to Dortmund, just like in the Derby, than American Pharoah will be on Saturday. He’s worth throwing into the Pick 4.