2016 Kentucky Derby Betting TrendsJosh Bailey
The 2016 Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, May 7. No doubt the undefeated Nyquist is going to go off as the betting favorite to win the Derby on Saturday. Nyquist’s record, plus the way that he wins from a visual standpoint, makes him the deserving favorite. But do the Kentucky Derby betting trends point to a Nyquist victory in the 142 Running Of The Roses? I take a look at a few Kentucky Derby trends to figure that out!
Every 2016 Kentucky Derby Betting Trend & Stat You Need To Know Before You Bet
What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m, Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live
Beyer Speed Figures mean something
Since 1992 only 2 horses, Mine That Bird in 2009 and Animal Kingdom in 2011, has won the Kentucky Derby without running at least a 95 Beyer at some point in their past performances. That would seem to knock out Brody’s Cause, Suddenbreakingnews, Gun Runner, Oscar Nominated, Shagaf, Whitemore, Tom’s Ready, Mo Tom, Trojan Nation and Majesto from winning on Saturday.
What’s really interesting about this trend, though, is that Nyquist has never run a Beyer Figure of 95 or better at a route of ground, a race at a mile or more. His best figure at a route of ground was the 94 that he ran to win the Florida Derby. Only 4 horses have ever run a triple digit Beyer Figure in their entire lives, Danzing Candy ran a 100 winning the San Felipe, Destin ran a 100 winning the Tampa Bay Derby, Exaggerator scored with a 103 in the Santa Anita Derby and Nyquist won the 7 furlong San Vicente with a 101.
7 of the 24 Derby winners since 1992 had the highest last race Beyer Figure. That’s 29%, which is an awfully high win percentage for a race with 20 horses. Exaggerator’s 103 is the highest last race Beyer Figure by at least 3 points.
Pedigree and class is important
Some horseplayers believe that class and pedigree is the same thing. That’s not necessarily true. Although horses can win in class filled races, like the Kentucky Derby, without exuding a ton of class, it’s rare that a class less horse wins the Kentucky Derby. There is no horse without any class in this field. The new point system requires horses to fight in tough races in order to get enough points to run in the Kentucky Derby.
Now, pedigree is another thing altogether. The best bred horse in the field, my opinion only, is Trojan Nation, the second place finisher in the Wood Memorial. Trojan Nation might finally be putting all together. It took him 4 terrible races before his second place finish in the Wood Memorial. But, here’s the thing, he was sired by Street Cry, who sired 2007 Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense, and he’s from a Summer Squall mare. Summer Squall finished second in the 1990 Kentucky Derby as the favorite. He finished first in the Preakness Stakes.
Trojan Nation, Gun Runner, Destin, Exaggerator, Suddenbreakingnews, Mor Spirit, Whitmore, Brody’s Cause, Oscar Nominated and Majesto all have the pedigree to get the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby distance. Any horse sired by Tapit, that includes Mohaymen, Lani, and Creator, may or may not have the pedigree for the distance. Uncle Mo horses like Outwork and Nyquist may not have the pedigree either.
Undefeated horses are undefeated for a reason
4 out of the 6 undefeated horses that entered the Kentucky Derby starting gate since 1992 won the Run for the Roses. The 3 horses are: Smarty Jones in 2004, Barbaro in 2006 and Big Brown in 2008. The big question is whether or not Nyquist is a horse like Big Brown and Smarty Jones or if he’s more like Arazi, the undefeated French Horse who went off at 4/5 in the 1992 Kentucky Derby only to finish eighth.
Kentucky Derby winners often win a race as a 2 year old
This is a powerful Derby trend. Fusacichi Pegasus in 2000 and Monarchos in 2001 both won the Kentucky Derby without having won a race as a 2-year-old. Creator didn’t break his maiden until this past February. My Man Sam broke his maiden this past January and Trojan Nation still hasn’t won a race.