2016 Kentucky Derby Exacta PickJosh Bailey
The field has been drawn for this Saturday’s Run for the Roses. The Kentucky Derby betting favorite Nyquist breaks out of post-position 13 while second choice Exaggerator breaks from post-position 11. See below for my exacta play for this year’s Run for the Roses!
A Closer Look At My Winning Kentucky Derby Exacta Pick
What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live
Win: 11-Exaggerator 8/1
He goes into the race with the highest last race Beyer Figure. The 103 that he ran in the Santa Anita Derby was breathtaking considering how far behind the pace he went. If the pace is slow, Exaggerator has the ability to stay close. Based on morning line odds, he’s a better key horse in the exacta than Nyquist.
1-Trojan Nation, 2-Suddenbreakingnews, 3-Creator, 4-Mo Tom, 5-Gun Runner, 6-My Man Sam, 9-Destin, 13-Nyquist, 14-Mohaymen, 17-Mor Spirit
1-Trojan Nation 50/1 – His breeding suggests that he could sneak up and get into the exacta.
2-Suddenbreakingnews 20/1 – He went 8 wide and was closing on Creator towards the end of the Arkansas Derby.
3-Creator 10/1 – I like how he exploded in the stretch of the Arkansas Derby. He could definitely win the race on Saturday.
4-Mo Tom 20/1 – If he stays out of trouble, he might be tough.
5-Gun Runner 10/1 – I think he’s faster than what his Beyer Figures have implied. He’s on the smallish side, though.
6-My Man Sam 20/1 – Chad Brown is one of the hottest trainers in the country. If he can get My Man Sam to improve, he’ll have a shot for an exacta finish.
9-Destin 15/1 – Although he hasn’t been training well at Churchill Downs, I give him a big shot for the win. His breeding suggests that 1 ¼ miles will be no problem.
13-Nyquist 3/1 – The undefeated champ has every right to be the favorite. He got a nice draw with all of the speed outside of him.
14-Mohaymen 10/1 – His Florida Derby run was terrible. There’s no doubt he’s a better horse than that.
17-Mor Spirit 12/1 – No horse has ever won the Kentucky Derby from post 17. But what does it matter? Nothing. This guy’s got a ton of heart.
$4 Exacta Play
I’m keying Exaggerator on top of the horses that I think have a chance to place. Because of the odds in the Kentucky Derby, even a $4 exacta could pay huge.
Total = $40
$2 Exacta Play
I’m going to flip the exacta and put Exaggerator in the place slot. As long as any horse comes in ahead of Exaggerator not named Nyquist, the $2 exacta should pay nicely.
Total = $20
Total Exacta Play = $60
2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds
- Trojan Nation (50-1)
- Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
- Creator (10-1)
- Mo Tom (20-1)
- Gun Runner (10-1)
- My Man Sam (20-1)
- Oscar Nominated (50-1)
- Lani (30-1)
- Destin (15-1)
- Whitmore (20-1)
- Exaggerator (8-1)
- Tom’s Ready (30-1)
- Nyquist (3-1)
- Mohaymen (10-1)
- Outwork (15-1)
- Shagaf (20-1)
- Mor Spirit (12-1)
- Majesto (30-1)
- Brody’s Cause (12-1)
- Danzing Candy (15-1)