2016 Kentucky Derby Free PicksNoah Williams
The Kentucky Derby is this Saturday, May 7. The post-positions have been drawn and morning line odds have been set. The pools are expected to be absolutely gargantuan. $10 million or more is likely to be wagered on the horses in the win pool alone. That’s a lot of dough meaning that the favorite shouldn’t go off any lower than 5/2 in the race. Keep reading to find out how I am recommending you bet the 142nd Kentucky Derby this Saturday.
A Closer Look At My 2016 Kentucky Derby Free Picks
What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live
The Favorite To Win The 2016 Kentucky Derby: Nyquist 3/1
On paper, Nyquist looks like the clear winner of the Kentucky Derby this Saturday. He’s a multiple Grade 1 winner who is undefeated in 7 starts. He easily handled his foes by 3 ¼ lengths in the Florida Derby in his last. In that race, Nyquist went off second choice behind favored Mohaymen.
But although Nyquist has done nothing wrong in 7 races, it’s hard for me to put him on top in the Kentucky Derby. The favorite isn’t bred to run 1 ¼ miles. Not only that, but he drifted out badly in the stretch in the Florida Derby signaling to me that he was getting tired. I suspect that the same sort of thing may happen on May 7. Even though I feel that Nyquist can win the race, his odds are too low and they’ll be too low on race day, for me my win money.
The Smart Picks To Win The 2016 Kentucky Derby: Exaggerator 8/1 or Destin 15/1
Because it’s the Kentucky Derby and because odds are so high, it sort of makes sense to pick 2 horses to win. I like Exaggerator because he ran the best prep of the year when beating his foes by 6 ½ lengths in the Santa Anita Derby. Now, one could argue that the pace of the Derby, :45 for the first half, was just way too fast and that Exaggerator won’t get the same pace set-up on Saturday. But Danzing Candy, who has never run a half-mile in a race in less then :46.3, is in the race. So, even if the half is between :46 and :47, Exaggerator should be in a good spot. He can be as far from or as close to the pace as he needs to be.
Destin should be in the second flight, no more than 4 to 6 lengths off of the front runners. He has to improve his mechanics in order to win the Kentucky Derby; he had trouble changing leads in the stretch in the Tampa Bay Derby. But if he does, he could very well bring home the roses for Todd Pletcher on the First Saturday in May.
The Dark Horse Pick To Win The 2016 Kentucky Derby: Trojan Nation 50/1
Sure, he’s a maiden. I won’t argue the fact that only 3 maidens: Buchanan in 1884, Sir Barton in 1919 and Broker’s Tip in 1933, have ever won the Kentucky Derby. But where most horseplayers see long odds, I see a trend that’s due.
Okay, maybe I’m exaggerating. But not by much. Trojan Nation finished second in the 1 1/8 Wood Memorial in his last race. Before that, he had finished 3rd in a maiden special weight race at a mile. My thinking is that the longer the race is, the better this guy figures to run. His breeding, Street Cry from a Summer Squall broodmare, implies that he can run all day. He closed marvelously along the rail and almost nipped Outwork in the Wood Memorial. This is not your typical maiden. When three-year-olds get good, they stay good for a while. He’s worth a shot at what should be close to 80 to 1 odds.
2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds
- Trojan Nation (50-1)
- Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
- Creator (10-1)
- Mo Tom (20-1)
- Gun Runner (10-1)
- My Man Sam (20-1)
- Oscar Nominated (50-1)
- Lani (30-1)
- Destin (15-1)
- Whitmore (20-1)
- Exaggerator (8-1)
- Tom’s Ready (30-1)
- Nyquist (3-1)
- Mohaymen (10-1)
- Outwork (15-1)
- Shagaf (20-1)
- Mor Spirit (12-1)
- Majesto (30-1)
- Brody’s Cause (12-1)
- Danzing Candy (15-1)