From 2000 through 2012 the average $2 superfecta payout for the Kentucky Derby was $84,860.40. The low was a still great $3,270.80. The high was an astronomical $864.253.50. I don’t expect this year’s superfecta to pay out at over $800,000. But it could if Trojan Nation finishes first.
But putting Trojan Nation first requires a lot of capital. I’m not sure I want to invest more than maybe $150 into the superfecta. Because of that, I’m going to stick with the same horses in the show and fourth place slots. For first, I’ll ride with Exaggerator again. For second, I’m going with Nyquist and Destin.
Analyzing My Winning 2016 Kentucky Derby Superfecta Pick
What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live
Win: 11-Exaggerator 8/1
It makes no sense to use Nyquist as my key horse in the superfecta since Nyquist is going to go off at 3 to 1 or possibly even 5/2 in the race. Exaggerator was sired by Curlin. That means he has the ability to run 1 ¼ miles. Curlin won the Breeders Cup Classic at 1 ¼ miles and the Belmont Stakes at 1 ½ miles. Kent Desormeaux has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times. I like Exaggerator’s shot on Saturday.
Place: 9-Destin, 13-Nyquist
9-Destin – Supposedly, he hasn’t been training all that well. There’s just no telling how good he is. When he beat Outwork in the Tampa Bay Derby, he had trouble changing leads. Once he did, he took off. I also know that Destin has the breeding, sired by Giant’s Causeway, trainer, Todd Pletcher, and bottom, the Derby will be his sixth lifetime start, to win the roses on May 7.
13-Nyquist – I wish I could throw him out. But it’s impossible to. He has to prove that 1 ¼ miles isn’t too far for him. Other than that, there are no knocks.
Show: 1-Trojan Nation, 2-Suddenbreakingnews, 3-Creator, 4-Mo Tom, 5-Gun Runner, 6-My Man Sam, 9-Destin, 13-Nyquist, 14-Mohaymen, 17-Mor Spirit
1-Trojan Nation – He might go off at 80/1 to win the Kentucky Derby, which means that his odds in the trifecta could be anywhere from 35 to 1 to 50 to 1.
2-Suddenbreakingnews- He’s going to be flying. Plus, he doesn’t mind going wide.
3-Creator – There’s a chance that he bounces from his terrific win in the Arkansas Derby. But his connections are too good, and he looked too good in Arkansas, for me to leave him off the superfecta ticket.
4-Mo Tom – I love how after getting shut down late in both the Risen Star Stakes and the Louisiana Derby he still tried to run. This horse has guts.
5-Gun Runner – I like the horse but if Mo Tom hadn’t run into trouble in both of Gun Runner’s last 2 preps, Mo Tom may have beaten the son of Candy Ride. That’s why I have to leave him out of the place slot.
6-My Man Sam – He looked to be going the best towards the end of the Bluegrass Stakes. Brody’s Cause won the Bluegrass, but I think that My Man Sam has a better shot at winning the roses.
14-Mohayman – It’s hard for me to picture him winning the race. But I can definitely see him getting into either the tri or the super.
17-Mor Spirit – Bob Baffert trains and Gary Stevens rides. There’s a lot to like about this Eskendereya three-year-old.
Fourth: 1-Trojan Nation, 2-Suddenbreakingnews, 3-Creator, 4-Mo Tom, 5-Gun Runner, 6-My Man Sam, 9-Destin, 13-Nyquist, 14-Mohaymen, 17-Mor Spirit
$1 Superfecta Play
It’s not possible for me to play a $2 superfecta. That would cost $288, which is just too high of an investment for me. I’m going to play the super with $1 dollar. The key is the first 2 slots. If I can get either Destin or Nyquist to run second behind Exaggerator, I’ll have a big shot at hitting the super. The reason why is because I feel I’ve got the best closers in the race on my superfecta ticket.
11 w/9,13, w/1,2,3,4,5,6, 9,13,14,17 w/1,2,3,4,5,6, 9,13,14,17
Total = $144