Early 2017 Kentucky Derby Win-Place-Show Picks

2016 Kentucky Derby Trifecta Pick

The median payout for a $2 trifecta in the Kentucky Derby from 2000 – 2012 is $3,445.60. The low was $435. The high was more than $9,000. It makes a lot of sense to give the trifecta a shot on the First Saturday in May.

The only way to really build a winning trifecta is to use a key horse. I’m going to do that with 8/1 second choice Kentucky Derby betting favorite in Exaggerator. I decided to put 5 horses in the place slot while the show slot is going to have a total of 12 horses.

My Winning 2016 Kentucky Derby Trifecta Pick

What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live

Win:  11-Exaggerator 8/1

The Desormeaux brothers, Keith trains and Kent rides, got shut out of the Derby last year when their 2014 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion, Texas Red, was declared from the 2015 Kentucky Derby before the end of February. This year, the Desormeaux dudes have a legitimate contender in Exaggerator. He goes into the race with the highest last race Beyer Figure, a 103, and got a great post on Wednesday afternoon. I think he finishes either first or second on May 7.

Place: 5-Gun Runner, 9-Destin, 13-Nyquist, 14-Mohaymen, 17-Mor Spirit

5-Gun Runner 10/1 – His Beyers were slow. But it may not matter because he’s trained by 2016 Racing Hall of Fame inductee Steve Asmussen.  

9-Destin 15/1 – The Tampa Bay Derby winner should get a nice trip about 6 to 7 lengths off of the speed. He’s definitely worth putting into the pace and show slots.

13-Nyquist 3/1 – It’s impossible to leave the race time favorite and undefeated champ off of any tickets. It doesn’t matter the ticket. He might be that good.

14-Mohaymen 10/1 – Maybe, he was just over the top in the Florida Derby. I think he bounces back with a nice race on Saturday.

17-Mor Spirit 12/1 – This is American Pharoah’s trainer’s only horse entered in the Run for the Roses on May 7. In 2015, Bob Baffert finished first with American Pharoah and third with Dortmund. Mor Spirit is yet another that’s tough to leave out.

Show: 1-Trojan Nation, 2-Suddenbreakingnews, 3-Creator, 4-Mo Tom, 5-Gun Runner, 6-My Man Sam, 8-Lani, 9-Destin, 10-Whitmore, 13-Nyquist, 14-Mohaymen, 17-Mor Spirit

1-Trojan Nation 50/1 – I can’t afford to put him into the place slot. But he’s a must for me in the show slot.  

2-Suddenbreakingnews 20/1 – No other horse that I saw prep this year was as impressive as Suddenbreakingnews was when going 8 wide and finishing second in the Arkansas Derby.

3-Creator 10/1 – He’s a late bloomer who could improve on the First Saturday in May.

4-Mo Tom 20/1 – Bad trips in both of his last races is the reason that he got beat by Gun Runner.

6-My Man Sam 20/1 – I have the feeling that this cheap son of Trappe Shot will out run his odds on Saturday.

8-Lani 30/1 – The horse from Japan was sired by Tapit, North America’s top ranked sire. He won the UAE Derby at 1 3/16 miles, which is just short of the 1 ¼ mile Kentucky Derby.  

10-Whitmore 20/1 – This guy has a devastating closing kick that could put him into the tri.

$2 Trifecta Play

My trifecta is all about Exaggerator. If he can win, I think I’ll have a shot. I have to put the longest shot on the board, Trojan Nation, into the tri because a lot of times the pace of the Derby leads to a race that falls apart. Then, a long shot ends up coming up for third.

11 w/5,9,13,14,17 w/1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,13, 14,17

Total = $110

$1 Trifecta Play

5,9,13,14,17 w/11 w/1,2,3,4,5,6,8,9,10,13,14,17

Total = $55

Total Exacta Play = $165

2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds

  1. Trojan Nation (50-1)
  2. Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
  3. Creator (10-1)
  4. Mo Tom (20-1)
  5. Gun Runner (10-1)
  6. My Man Sam (20-1)
  7. Oscar Nominated (50-1)
  8. Lani (30-1)
  9. Destin (15-1)
  10. Whitmore (20-1)
  11. Exaggerator (8-1)
  12. Tom’s Ready (30-1)
  13. Nyquist (3-1)
  14. Mohaymen (10-1)
  15. Outwork (15-1)
  16. Shagaf (20-1)
  17. Mor Spirit (12-1)
  18. Majesto (30-1)
  19. Brody’s Cause (12-1)
  20. Danzing Candy (15-1)