The 142nd Kentucky Derby field is set. Nyquist’s morning line odds are a salty 3 to 1. Because he’s undefeated and put a serious beat down on winter book favorite Mohaymen in the Florida Derby, Nyquist’s odds make a lot of sense.
But betting on the favorite to win the Kentucky Derby doesn’t always yield great results. Last year’s Derby favorite, American Pharoah, was just better than the rest of the horses entered. That may not be true for Nyquist who only has 1 triple digit Beyer Figure in his past performances. Keep reading to find out who I am picking to win your Win/Place/Show Kentucky Derby bet this Saturday, May 7th.
2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds
- Trojan Nation (50-1)
- Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
- Creator (10-1)
- Mo Tom (20-1)
- Gun Runner (10-1)
- My Man Sam (20-1)
- Oscar Nominated (50-1)
- Lani (30-1)
- Destin (15-1)
- Whitmore (20-1)
- Exaggerator (8-1)
- Tom’s Ready (30-1)
- Nyquist (3-1)
- Mohaymen (10-1)
- Outwork (15-1)
- Shagaf (20-1)
- Mor Spirit (12-1)
- Majesto (30-1)
- Brody’s Cause (12-1)
- Danzing Candy (15-1)
Analyzing My 2016 Kentucky Derby Win, Place, Show Picks
What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live
Kentucky Derby Win Pick: Exaggerator 8/1
I believe that the Keith Desormeaux trainee is sitting on a huge race. His ability to get a 1 ¼ miles is unquestioned. Sired by Horse of the Year Curlin and from a Vindication broodmare says that Exaggerator should be able to run all day. He ran close to the pace in the 7 furlong San Vicente. He just couldn’t get to Nyquist that day. In the San Felipe, he made a nice move to get within a length of Danzing Candy but flattened out in the stretch. He put it altogether in the Santa Anita Derby. I think that he’s the horse to beat in the Run for the Roses.
Kentucky Derby Place Pick: Destin 15/1
Even if visually he hasn’t looked that great in the mornings, it’s hard for me to see this Todd Pletcher trainee, who will be running in his fourth race in 2016, not hitting the board on May 7. He has the ability to stay close to the pace if it’s not that fast. He can turn on the jets when he wants to and jockey Javier Castellano is sort of due for a Derby win considering that Castellano is regarded as the best jockey on the East Coast. Castellano’s not going to lose the race, which sometimes is the only thing that you can hope for in the Kentucky Derby. If Pletcher has him ready, watch out.
Kentucky Derby Show Pick: Nyquist 3/1
It’s always tough to leave the chalk out of one of the first 3 slots. I wanted to, trust me, I really wanted to, but it’s impossible not to back Nyquist to at least get into the trifecta because the horse is so far undefeated. What’s more important is that he’s done everything asked of him. He didn’t take the lead in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last November. In fact, he had to go wide around both turns. If the real Nyquist shows up, it’s hard for me to see him not having the lead at the top of the stretch in the Kentucky Derby and hanging on for third.