The 2019 Belmont Stakes is upon us. If you are looking for a long shot pick to bet on look no further. While no one predicted Country House would win the Kentucky Derby, I am betting on Tax to win the 2019 Belmont Stakes as a +1300 long shot. A $100 wager on Tax to win the Belmont will win you $1300. If you need more convincing keep reading to find out why I am betting on Tax to win the 2019 Belmont.
2019 Belmont Stakes Opening Odds
- Joevia +4000
- Everfast +1400
- Master Fencer +1200
- Tax +1300
- Bourbon War +1300
- Spinoff +1100
- Sir Winston +2000
- Intrepid Heart +800
- War of Will +290
- Tacitus +175
Belmont Stakes Long Shot Bet: Tax +1300
On paper, it looks like Tax has no shot. He finished fifteenth in the Kentucky Derby by 15 lengths. The only reason he got moved up to fourteenth is that the stewards disqualified Maximum Security. A closer examination of Tax’s run in the Derby, though, shows that he didn’t run nearly as poorly as the racing lines indicate.
As soon as the gates opened, he seemed to be in a good position, but Tax appeared incredibly uncomfortable. Jockey Junior Alvarado allowed Tax to settle in along the rail and for a while, it appeared as if he might make a move towards the front runners. However, at no point during the running of the Derby did it look like Tax had gotten a hold of the racetrack. Knowing this, Junior laid off his mount at the top of the stretch. If he had worked Tax hard, he might have finished in the Top 10.
If we throw out the Derby run, Tax has run races that makes him a logical choice to win the Belmont Stakes. He got the jump on Tacitus in the Wood Memorial. Although he couldn’t hold off Tacitus in that race, Alvarado could do a couple of things differently on Saturday to either keep him in front of the chalk or allow him to run down the chalk. Alvarado’s got way more options in this shorter field. He can most definitely put Tax into a much better position for the win on Saturday that he could in the Kentucky Derby.
There’s also the fact that Tax has a ton of back class. He finished third in the Remsen as a two-year-old behind Maximum Mischief and Network Effect. In his first race a three-year-old, the Grade 3 Withers, he won by a head. Then came the second in the Wood Memorial.
Not only does Tax have back class, but because Arch sired him, he should have no trouble running the 1 ½ mile Belmont distance. He’s the best-bred horse to get the Belmont distance.
Finally, Danny Gargan trains. Gargan is one of the top trainers in New York. He knows how to get his horses ready to run their best at Aqueduct and Belmont Park. He’ll have Tax prepared to bounce back with a top effort after the Derby debacle. If you’re looking for a longshot with a chance, Tax looks like the one to back.