Which Longshots Should You Bet On At The Belmont Stakes?

Morning Line Odds for the Breeders’ Cup

Which Longshots Should You Bet On At The Belmont Stakes?

The 2015 Belmont Stakes Morning Odds are out. A $1.5 million purse is on the line. Derby & Preakness winner American Pharoah (pictured) is one leg away from the elusive Triple Crown, but standing between the 3-year old cold and the winners circle are seven other runners and 12 furlongs (1.5 miles).

Since Affirmed in 1978, thirteen horses have gone to Belmont after winning the Derby and Preakness with chance at Triple Crown not including American Pharoah. Of the thirteen, five horses led with ¼ mile left and all have fallen before reaching the finish line. Which of this years crop of longshots has the legs to beat Pharoah at the Belmont?

Post Positions and Morning Line Odds each horse running in the 2015 Belmont Stakes:

Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer Morning Line Odds
1 Mubtaahij Irad Ortiz Jr. Michael de Kock 10-1
2 Tale of Verve Gary Stevens Dallas Stewart 15-1
3 Madefromlucky Javier Casellano Todd Pletcher 12-1
4 Frammento Mike Smith Nick Zito 30-1
5 American Pharoah Victor Espinoza Bob Baffert 3-5
6 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiarin McLaughlin 5-1
7 Keen Ice Kent Desormeaux Dale Romans 20-1
8 Materiality John Velazquez Todd Pletcher 6-1

Frosted, the Wood Memorial Stakes winner, was made the second Morning Line odds choice at 5-1 coming out of the No. 6 hole at the 2015 Belmont Stakes. He was a fast-closing fourth in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness to directly jump to the Belmont t play spoiler.

Materiality, a Todd Pletcher trainee who won the Florida Derby this spring, also skipped the Preakness after a sixth-pace finish at Churchill Downs and is 6-1 on the morning line. He drew the outside No. 8 post position.

Pletcher has another other horse running in thise year’s Belmont: Madefromlucky, who won the Peter Pan Stakes over the Belmont track on May 9.

Trainer Nick Zito has thwarted TWO Triple Crown hopefuls with a pair of longshots: Da’Tara (39-1) in 2008 and Birdstone (34-1) in 2004. He is hoping, one of his ponies has an upset up it’s sleeve when he pits the 30-1 Frammento, from post position No. 4, against the 3-5 Morning Line odds favorite American Pharoah, who arrived at Belmont Park on Tuesday after training in Kentucky the last two weeks.

Here are my top Belmont Stakes longshot picks to beat American Pharoah and thwart the next coming of a Triple Crown winner.

Bet These Longshots To Win The 2015 Belmont Stakes

2015 Belmont Stakes
Date: June. 6, 2015 
Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET 
Location: Belmont Park, Elmont, New York
TV Info: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
Distance: 1 1⁄2 miles (12 furlongs)
Purse: US $1.5 million – 1st: $800,000
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Madefromlucky, 12/1

The Peter Pan winner made a great move after chasing a very fast pace to win the Peter Pan rather easily in his prep for the Belmont Stakes. Trainer Todd Pletcher can rally get his three-year-olds moving at this time of the year. Remember Flower Alley?  That was a late blooming three-year-old. In any case, this horse is bred to be a good horse. The pace should be fast enough but if it isn’t, Madefromlucky could sit closer than he did in the Peter Pan. He’s the best longshot to consider on top.

Mubtaahij, 10/1

Trainer Michael de Kock has worked Mubtaahij 6 times since the Kentucky Derby on May 2. That’s 6 workouts to keep this guy on his toes and fit. The breeding suggests that he won’t have any issue with the distance. He’s proven on dirt. It’s just matter of whether or not he’s good enough. If he is, he could definitely find a way to do some damage in this. If he isn’t, he’ll run one-paced like he did in the Derby. Michael de Kock is one of the best thoroughbred trainers in the world. So, don’t sleep on his chances.

Tale of Verve, 15/1

Tale of Verve sure proved that trainer Dallas Stewart knew what he was doing when Stewart put Tale of Verve into the Preakness after only a maiden win. The son of Tale of Ekati ducked inside of Divining Rod in order to pass that horse and pick up second place money. It was a daring, awesome move for a horse that has only broken his maiden. If Tale of Verve has gotten any better from the Preakness Stakes to the Belmont Stakes, he is yet another that could upset the Belmont field. This might be too soon for the colt, but Gary Stevens takes the ride. Also, the work on May 30, 5 furlongs in :59, was sensational. 

Belmont Stakes Fun Facts

Speed record:
2:24.00 – Secretariat (1973)

Record Victory Margin:
31 lengths – Secretariat (1973)

Most wins by a jockey:
6 – Jim McLaughlin, Eddie Arcaro

Most wins by a trainer:
8 – James G. Rowe, Sr.

Most wins by an owner:
6 – Belair Stud (1930, 1932, 1935, 1936, 1939, 1955)
6 – James R. Keene (1879, 1901, 1904, 1907, 1908, 1910)