2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Win/Place/Show Picks

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Win/Place/Show Picks

The 2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic is this Saturday, Nov. 5th from the storied Santa Anita Park. The $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic will have 10 horses going to the gate at Santa Anita on Saturday evening. Post time for the race, which will be broadcast on NBC, is 8:35 Eastern time.

Last week’s announcement that Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist wouldn’t run because of a swollen ankle was a big blow to horse racing handicappers. But never fear California Chrome is the heavy betting favorite to win the 2016 Breeders’ Cup.

Even-money favorite California Chrome is the horse to beat, but he’s taking on a handful of Grade I winners, several of which are come to the Classic to finish out their own impressive years.

Breeders’ Cup Classic Odds
Post Postion Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 Effinex Flavien Prat Jimmy Jerkens 15-1
2 Frosted Joel Rosario Kiaran McLaughlin 5-1
3 Keen Ice Javier Castellano Todd Pletcher 20-1
4 California Chrome Victor Espinoza Art Sherman 1-1
5 Win the Space Gary Stevens George Papaprodromou 30-1
6 Melatonin Joe Talamo David Hofmans 12-1
7 War Story Scott Speith Mario Serey Jr. 30-1
8 Sherman Ghost Irad Ortiz Jr. Jimmy Jerkens 20-1
9 Hoppertunity John Velasquez Bob Baffert 15-1
10 Arrogate Mike Smith Bob Baffert 5-2

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Win/Place/Show Picks

The 2 highest-rated horses in the world are scheduled to throw down in the Classic. Will California Chrome punctuate his historic career with a win in the BC Classic?  Or, will the Bob Baffert trained Arrogate upset Chrome’s coronation?

What: 2016 Breeders Cup Classic
When: Saturday, November 5, 2016
Start Time: 8:30 PM ET  
Where: Arcadia, CA
Stadium: Santa Anita Park
Watch: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Win Pick: Arrogate +300

Trainer Bob Baffert has won the last 2 runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic. In the 2014 BC Classic, he upset California Chrome and Shared Belief with Bayern. Last year, he took home the Classic with Triple Crown winner American Pharoah.

Does Arrogate set up Baffert for 3 Classic wins in a row?  I think he does. Arrogate was as sensational winning the Travers Stakes this past August at Saratoga as any horse that I’ve seen run in a long time. Usually, I don’t put stock into a horse winning at Saratoga. That’s why I didn’t care last year when Keen Ice upset American Pharoah in the race.

But this year, Arrogate sped up around the turn and in the stretch after running 6 furlongs in 1:10.85. To put it into perspective, Arrogate was so brilliant that he ran the 1 1/4 Travers in 1:59.36.

He’s been training lights out for this. I think Baffert is sitting on a three-peat with this huge, brilliant, son of Unbridled’s Song. 

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Place Pick: California Chrome -110

Just because I’m going with Arrogate it doesn’t mean that I don’t believe California Chrome has a shot at beating the Baffert trainee on Nov. 5. In fact, I’m going to use both favorites on top in my exactas, trifecta, and superfecta plays.

California Chrome has won 6 races in a row. Like Arrogate, Chrome has been training lights out as well. The difference between the 2 is that I don’t see how jockey Victor Espinoza aboard California Chrome presses Arrogate too quickly in the beginning of the race now that Chrome has shown the ability to rate.

Doing so might set things up for a closer. That should give the advantage to Mike Smith aboard Arrogate. I think Chrome is over bet in this spot. Plus, tactically, he could have an issue against Baffert’s front running beast.

2016 Breeders’ Cup Classic Show Pick: Melatonin +2500

Most jockeys, owners, and trainers don’t want to compromise their horses’ chances of picking up second, third or fourth, or even fifth place money in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The reason why is because the purse for the BC Classic is a gargantuan $6 million. Winning is nice. But losing out on big money for finishing just fifth or sixth without killing your horse is a nice chunk of change to pick up.

That’s the reason why I like Arrogate to go gate to wire in the race. It’s also a reason why I like Melatonin, who’s built much better to get 1 1/4 miles than +800 Frosted, to finish third to California Chrome and Arrogate.

Melatonin hasn’t run since June. That doesn’t bother me. I think he still gets the perfect position early on in the race to finish third on Saturday. 

Friday’s schedule of Breeders’ Cup races

All times Eastern

  • 5:25 pm         $1 million Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf.
  • 6:05 pm         $1 million Las Vegas Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile
  • 6:50 pm         $1 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf
  • 7:35 pm         $2 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Distaff

Saturday’s schedule of Breeders’ Cup Races

The first Breeders’ Cup race is the fourth race on the Santa Anita card, which begins at 1:15 PM ET.

  • 3:05 pm       $2 million 14 Hands Winery Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies
  • 3:43 pm       $2 million Breeders’ Cup Filly and Mare Turf
  • 4:21 pm         $1.5 million TwinSpires Breeders’ Cup Sprint
  • 5:05 pm         $1 million Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint
  • 5:43 pm         $2 million Sentient Jet Breeders’ Cup Juvenile
  • 6:22 pm         $4 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Turf
  • 7:01 pm         $1 million Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint
  • 7:40 pm         $2 million Breeders’ Cup Mile
  • 8:35 pm         $6 million Breeders’ Cup Classic

TV coverage: All races will be televised on NBC Sports Network