Early 2017 Kentucky Derby Win-Place-Show Picks

Early 2016 Kentucky Derby Favorites

The field for the 2016 Kentucky Derby is just about set. Already this week trainer Bob Baffert has declared Cupid, his star front runner, from entering the starting gate in the Kentucky Derby. Since Collected won his Derby prep in a race that didn’t offer any Derby points, one of Baffert’s other top runners won’t enter the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, either.

So far, there are four horses that future book odds makers haven’t set a line for:  Creator, Oscar Nominated, Majesto and Trojan Nation. I’ve put them on the list anyhow. Eventually, odds makers will set lines for those 4 equines, meaning that it might help if give all of you some info on those 4. The list below is based on point standings. See below for early odds and a quick blurb of each horse in the Top 20 for the 2016 Kentucky Derby!

A Closer Look At The Early Kentucky Derby Favorites

What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live

  • Gun Runner +1200 – He looked awesome winning the Louisiana Derby but the time was slow.
  • Nyquist +300 – The undefeated Breeders Cup Juvenile Champion has every right to go off the favorite on May 7.
  • Exaggerator +750 – His blistering, incredibly long run to catch Danzing Candy and win the Santa Anita Derby was breathtaking. At those odds, he’s definitely the pick from my POV.
  • Outwork +1800 – He’s a front runner that’s likely to face other speed in the Kentucky Derby. I’m passing.
  • Brody’s Cause +950 – Since his 2 best races have been over the Keeneland course, I have to question whether or not he’s going to like Churchill Downs.
  • Creator – He’s improved from race to race under the care of Steve Asmussen. His Arkansas Derby win was almost as good as Exaggerator’s Santa Anita Derby win.
  • Lani  +3000 – Man, his win in the UAE Derby was desperately slow!  Unless he plans on getting the final 1/8 of a mile in the Kentucky Derby in 7 seconds or quicker, he has no shot on May 7.
  • Mor Spirit +1500 – I’m up and down with him. He hasn’t runner nearly as fast as Baffert’s past Kentucky Derby contenders. But, he’s looked great on the racetrack.
  • Mohaymen +800 – Maybe he improves off of the horrible Florida Derby loss to Nyquist. Or, maybe, he’s over the top and won’t improve until the fall.
  • Danzing Candy +2200 – He’s a free running machine that needs everything to go his way in the Kentucky Derby. Those horses usually pack it in at the top of the stretch.
  • Destin +1400 – He’s improved a ton since Todd Pletcher put on blinkers. But, the Derby will be his first race in close to 6 weeks. That’s a long time for a three-year-old to sit on the bench.
  • Suddenbreakingnews +4000 – His second place finish to Creator in the Arkansas Derby wasn’t bad. He’s actually got a huge shot to finish in the tri, or even the exacta, at massive odds.
  • Oscar Nominated – His best races have been over the turf and over the synthetic. Pass.
  • Shagaf +2500 – He’d have to improve big time in order to win the Kentucky Derby.
  • Whitmore +4000 – Here’s yet another with a huge shot at finishing second or third in the Kentucky Derby. In fact, he could win it if the race falls apart.
  • Tom’s Ready +4000 – He’s too slow to have any shot to win on the First Saturday in May.
  • My Man Sam – It would be a huge surprise to see this horse take home the roses.
  • Majesto – His connections should seriously consider bypassing the Derby for a run in the Preakness Stakes.
  • Trojan Nation – He’s got guts. But, he’s still only a maiden winner after finishing second to Outwork in the low-rated Wood Memorial.  
  • Mo Tom +1600 – Here’s yet another slow horse going off at low odds compared to his chances of winning the Kentucky Derby. I’m passing.