The 2018 Kentucky Derby takes place on Saturday, May 5th. All Derby Preps have already completed. The early 2018 Kentucky Derby odds are out. Who is the early betting favorite to win the 2018 Kentucky Derby? Is there a smart bet? Is there a long shot that can take the first jewel of the Triple Crown?
— Rob Gronkowski (@RobGronkowski) April 18, 2018
Early Kentucky Derby Odds & Picks
- Justify +370
- Mendelssohn +470
- Magnum Moon +650
- Audible +670
- Bolt D’oro +750
- Good Magic +900
- Vino Rosso +1400
- My Boy Jack +1500
- Solomini +2000
- Enticed +2150
- Noble Indy +2250
- Quip +3000
- Hofburg +3000
- Flameaway +3000
- Free Drop Billy +3500
- Gronkowski +4000
- Lone Sailor +4500
- Promises Fulfilled +5000
- Bravazo +5000
- Firenze Fire +5500
- Snapper Sinclair +5750
- Combatant +6000
- Restoring Hope +7500
- Reride +8500
The Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Betting Favorite: Justify +370
The way Justify won the Santa Anita Derby sent his odds careening down to 5/2. Before the Santa Anita Derby, he was a 5/1 shot. Based on breeding, sired by Scat Daddy, and trainer, Bob Baffert won the Triple Crown with American Pharoah in 2015, there’s no reason to believe Justify can’t win the Kentucky Derby on May 5.
Okay. There is one reason. No horse has won the Derby after not racing at 2 since Apollo in 1882. That’s a ton of history that Justify must overcome. To overcome such history, Justify not only must be the best horse on May 5, but he must be the best horse on May 5 by leaps and bounds.
I believe that makes him a play against at low odds.
The Early 2018 Kentucky Derby Smart Pick: Mendelssohn +470
On May 5, Mendelssohn’s odds should be around 5/1 or less to win the Kentucky Derby. The UAE Derby winner is trained by Aidan O’Brien, arguably the best horse racing trainer in the world, and has the breeding to upset a horse like Justify.
Mendelssohn is a half brother to Justify. Both were sired by Scat Daddy. The difference is that Mendelssohn’s mother also birthed great mare Beholder. So, not only is Mendelssohn a half-brother to Justify, he’s also a half-brother to arguably the best mare that’s run in the United States in the past 8 years.
Worried about Mendelssohn getting the distance? Beholder won the 1 ¼ mile Pacific Classic a few years back. Mendelssohn will get the Kentucky Derby distance.
The 2018 Kentucky Derby Longshot Pick: Vino Rosso +1400
I, like everyone else, is a fan of Magnum Moon’s. The Arkansas Derby winner is trainer Todd Pletcher’s top Derby prospect heading into May 5. However, Vino Rosso, who took home the Wood Memorial, has the right to be as good as Magnum Moon on Derby Day.
Vino Rosso got bumped in the stretch and still managed to beat Enticed for the Wood Memorial trophy. He’s bred to be as good as he needs to be. He also hasn’t peaked, which is why he’s my longshot choice.