Handicapping the 2015 Belmont StakesJosh Bailey
At long last its Belmont Week and for the second straight year — and the third time in four — we have an opportunity to bet on a Triple Crown hopeful to win the 2015 Belmont Stakes.
Last year it was California Chrome as the heavy favorite headed into the Belmont Stakes and this year all eyes are on American Pharoah in the 2015 Belmont Stakes as the 3-year old colt attempts to become the first Triple Crown winner since 1978. Will the impressive yet possibly fatigued colt prevail over the 1.5 mile long run or will he be upset by one of the field’s fresh-legged contenders?
— Fighthits Sports (@fighthits) May 31, 2015
Handicapping the 2015 Belmont Stakes
2015 Belmont Stakes
Date: June. 6, 2015
Start Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
Location: Belmont Park, Elmont, New York
TV Info: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra
Distance: 1 1⁄2 miles (12 furlongs)
Purse: US $1.5 million – 1st: $800,000
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There are a lot of ways to handicap the 2015 Belmont Stakes. But, the most efficient to do so is to make one of three decisions: a) American Pharoah wins it, b) American Pharoah finishes in the Top 3 or c) American Pharoah finishes off the board.
a) American Pharoah wins it
The reality of the situation is that this is the best horse in the past 14 that has tried, with possibly the exception of Spectacular Bid in 1979, for the Triple Crown. He’s the best bred, fastest, and his action over the racetrack is brilliant. His connections are top-notch with Bob Baffert as his trainer and Victor Espinoza, who won 2 Kentucky Derbys before this year, as his jockey. American Pharoah should win the Belmont Stakes and if you believe it, there are worse 4 to 5 shots that you could back with real dollars.
b) American Pharoah finishes in the Top 3
If you handicap the race this way, you have to play the superfecta, not the trifecta. The trifecta is going to pay peanuts since even if American Pharoah finishes third and you get 2 longshots in the first 2 slots, it’s too easy to wheel up and down with all of the horses. You’d have to get the longest shots on the board to finish in the Top 2. That’s not likely to happen.
But, keying American Pharoah in the Top 3 slots surrounded by longshots in all 4 slots in the superfecta is sure to produce a profitable ticket.
c) American Pharoah finishes off the board
This could lead to riches. Big favorites in the Belmont going for the Triple Crown have led to massive payouts because those big favorites, many times in the past, have finished off the board. In this case, American Pharoah is meeting a bevy of new shooters including Madefromlucky, the Peter Pan winner, and Conquest Curlinate, the second place finisher in the Peter Pan.
If the Bob Baffert trainee loses a shoe, or he stumbles out of the gate, there is a good chance that he could end up off the board. If you believe it, if you accept it and if you bet the Belmont this way, then riches will come your way.
Early 2015 Belmont Stakes Betting Odds – Updated June 1st
- American Pharoah 5/6
- Frosted 11/2
- Materiality 13/2
- Carpe Diem 12/1
- Mubtaahij 16/1
- Madefromlucky 16/1
- Tale of Verve 22/1
- Keen Ice 28/1
- Frammento 40/1
- The Truth or Else 50/1