Handicapping The 2020 Kentucky Derby

Handicapping The 2020 Kentucky Derby

It’s Derby Week! The Kentucky Derby 2020 goes to post at 7:01 p.m. ET on Saturday, September 5 at Churchill Downs with a field of 18. Tiz the Law, who won the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, is the -145 betting favorite in a field of mostly long shots.

Handicapping The 2020 Kentucky Derby

  1. Finnick the Fierce, +5000 – Arnaldo Monge and Rey Hernandez are throwing a dart with this gelded son of Dialed In. Finnick is way too slow to have a say in the outcome.
  2. Max Player, +2850 – Sure, the Law dominated him in the Travers, but he switches barns from Linda Rice to Steve Asmussen. Along with Money Moves, he’s a 30/1 runner with a puncher’s chance.
  3. Enforceable, +4000 – In 2019, Mark Casse had a contender in War of Will. Enforceable is no War of Will.
  4. Storm the Court, +5000 – Since winning the BC Juvenile last November, Storm’s best finish was second in the Grade 3 La Jolla over the turf. At least the second-place finished happened in his last race. 
  5. Major Fed, +6600 – In his last, the Greg Foley trained runner ran the best race of his life in the Indiana Derby. . . and still finished second by 3 lengths. 
  6. King Guillermo, +2000 – We’re not ready to call Guillermo a contender. We do like how Juan Avila kept him on the bench after the Arkansas Derby. He’s fresh, fast, and has the breeding to pull off the upset.
  7. Money Moves, +5000 – Todd Pletcher trained Money Moves is the best major longshot on the board. He lost his last race, an allowance, by ¾ lengths. More importantly, this guy is a $975,000 purchase. If he runs to his price-tag, he could hit the board at massive odds. 
  8. South Bend, +6600 – He started out his career 3-0. Then, his form fell off a cliff and into the drink. It’s doubtful the fourth-place finish in the Travers propels him into the Top 10.
  9. Mr. Big News, +6600 – Up until Tuesday morning, Mr. Big News’ connections had him running in the American Turf over Churchill’s lawn. That tells you how much of a shot he’s got to upset Tiz the Law. 
  10. Thousand Words, +1600 – 16/1 odds make the Baffert trainee the overlay to win the roses. He’s fast, can rate, and will fight to the wire. This guy is one of the horses that can take down the Law. 
  11. Necker Island, +9000 – He hasn’t finished better than third in seven straight races. He’ll be lucky to finish better than twelfth on Saturday. 
  12. Sole Volante, +4000 – He ran awful in the Belmont Stakes. But, he’s had time to recover. Volante shouldn’t win. Filling out the superfecta isn’t out of the question. 
  13. Attachment Rate, +5000 – Trained by Dale Romans, Attachment Rate’s sire, Hard Spun, finished second in the Kentucky Derby. This one has some talent but it’s hard to see him putting it all together on the first Saturday in September. 
  14. Winning Impression, +8500 – The Dallas Stewart trainee lost his last three races by a combined 33 ¼ lengths. 
  15. NY Traffic, +1750 – His rally to almost upset Authentic in the Grade 1 Haskell proves he can run with these. The real question? Is he bred to go the Derby distance?
  16. Honor A.P., +600 – John Shirreffs won the 2005 Derby with Giacomo. Honor A.P. couldn’t get by Thousand Words in the Shared Belief, but he made a middle move that proves he can win the Kentucky Derby. Take the second choice seriously.   
  17. Tiz the Law, -145 – Three Grade 1 wins in a row including the Belmont and Travers. Bred on top and bottom to dominate, which he’s done since finishing third in the Kentucky Jockey Club last November. Barclay Tagg won the 2003 Derby with Funny Cide. The only thing not to like is the odds. 
  18. Authentic, +800 – The Baffert runner must make a trip from the far outside. That could hurt Authentic. Who knows if he can rate? If he can, he’s run fast enough to hang with the Law. If not, he finishes in the bottom half of the field.