2016 Kentucky Derby Expert PicksJosh Bailey
The most famous horse race in the world takes place this Saturday, May 7 at Churchill Downs when 20 three-year-old thoroughbreds hit the dirt under the Twin Spires for the 2016 Kentucky Derby. Although the queen isn’t likely to be in attendance, many other celebrities are. Click here for more Kentucky Derby analysis.
The biggest celebrity could end up being one of the horses, the undefeated Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Champion Nyquist. At 7 and 0, Nyquist is regarded as the horse to beat this Saturday. He’s definitely going to be the favorite. But that doesn’t mean that Nyquist is the smart pick to win. Keep reading for more insider info on Nyquist as well as my smart pick to win and my longshot pick to win.
A Closer Look At My Kentucky Derby Expert Picks
What: 142nd running of the Kentucky Derby
Who: Grade 1 stakes race for 3-year-olds
When: Saturday, May 7, 2016
Post Time: 6:34 PM ET
Where: Louisville, KY
Track: Churchill Downs
Watch: NBC – Kentucky Derby Undercard 12-4 p.m
Live Derby Coverage 4-7 p.m.
Stream: NBC Sports Live
The Favorite To Win The Kentucky Derby: Nyquist 3-1
You can get Nyquist at 3 to 1 or so in the sports book if you really believe that he’s going to win. The thing about the 2-year old champion is that he has an incredible ability to coast while surrounded by horses. That’s what he did in the Florida Derby before turning on the jets and winning the race by an easy margin. But the Florida Derby is exactly why I don’t love his chances to win on May 7. To me, Nyquist didn’t really speed up in the stretch. Mohaymen, the winter book Derby favorite, failed to put in his best run. In fact, Nyquist started to drift in the stretch. That tells me that he doesn’t exactly want to run 1 ¼ miles. I like the horse, but he’s not American Pharoah. I can’t accept low odds on Nyquist.
The Smart Pick To Win The Kentucky Derby: Exaggerator 8-1
Exaggerator has all of the things that a horse needs in order to win the Kentucky Derby. He is trained by Keith Desormeaux who won the Breeders Cup Juvenile with Texas Red in 2014. Keith’s brother, Kent Desormeaux, rides. Kent D. has won the Kentucky Derby 3 times during his career. Exaggerator was sired by Belmont and Breeders Cup Classic winner Curlin. Exaggerator has also run faster than any other horse that will be in the race at a route of ground. I think he wins the Kentucky Derby this Saturday.
The Longshot Pick To Win The Kentucky Derby: Trojan Nation 50-1
From maiden winner to second place in the Wood Memorial to first place in the Kentucky Derby? Sounds crazy, right? Not so fast. Trojan Nation was sired by Street Cry, one of the great sires in the world. Street Cry has already sired a Kentucky Derby winner, Street Sense who won the roses in 2007. Not only that, but Trojan Nation’s mom was sired by Summer Squall who was the favorite in the Kentucky Derby and finished second in the race in 1990. Trojan Nation isn’t bred to be a 50 to 60 to 1 shot, which is what his odds may be right before they open the gates. He’s bred to actually win the Derby. His trainer, Paddy Gallagher, is one of the best in the world. Trojan Nation showed a lot of heart running up the rail and almost upsetting Outwork to win the Wood Memorial. I like him at what should be massive odds.
2016 Kentucky Derby Post Positions & Morning Line Odds
- Trojan Nation (50-1)
- Suddenbreakingnews (20-1)
- Creator (10-1)
- Mo Tom (20-1)
- Gun Runner (10-1)
- My Man Sam (20-1)
- Oscar Nominated (50-1)
- Lani (30-1)
- Destin (15-1)
- Whitmore (20-1)
- Exaggerator (8-1)
- Tom’s Ready (30-1)
- Nyquist (3-1)
- Mohaymen (10-1)
- Outwork (15-1)
- Shagaf (20-1)
- Mor Spirit (12-1)
- Majesto (30-1)
- Brody’s Cause (12-1)
- Danzing Candy (15-1)