Long Shot Kentucky Derby Picks

Long Shot Kentucky Derby Picks

It’s Derby week and if you love backing a long shot, there are three Kentucky Derby long shots you need to look at.

Long Shot Kentucky Derby Picks

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: Spinoff +2500

The second place finisher in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby, Spinoff has all the makings of a major Kentucky Derby upset winner. His sire, Hard Spun, finished second in the Kentucky Derby while his broodmare, Zaftig, was sired by Gone West. Hard Spun on top and Gone West on the bottom means that Spinoff should relish the 1 ¼ mile distance.

But, that’s not the only reason to like his chances on May 4. Spinoff is trained by the great Todd Pletcher. Pletcher is considered one of the very best trainers in the world. He’s won the Kentucky Derby twice with Super Saver and Always Dreaming. Also, Spinoff has a ton of room to improve because the La Derby was only his fourth-lifetime race. Beware the Pletcher runner at big odds.

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: Tax +2500

It’s difficult to understand how Tacitus could be +800 and Tax could be +2500. Tacitus beat Tax by only 1 and a quarter lengths in the Wood Memorial. Not only that, but Tax might have won the race if jockey Junior Alvarado had tried different tactics aboard him. Alvarado didn’t blow the ride by any means. However, if he had placed Tax closer to the front runners in the Wood, and had tried to take over sooner, he might have put too much distance between himself and Tacitus for that one to have made up.

Tax has never run a bad race. He’s 2-2-1 from 5 races and because he’s sired by Arch, he should have the lung capacity to run all day. He offers ridiculously high odds to win the Kentucky Derby, and, getting back to the pilot, Alvarado seems to have taken a forward leap as a jockey in 2019. He’s one of the top 10 riders in the U.S. for sure.

2019 Kentucky Derby Long Shot Pick: By My Standards +2500

I’m not sure how much attention those who believe By My Standards has no shot paid to the Louisiana Derby. Many feel the La Derby was a weak prep. It looks like a strong prep after watching By My Standards run by Spinoff along the rail to secure the victory.

The Bret Calhoun trainee just broke his maiden on February 16. Maybe, that’s why everybody’s decrying his chances. This is horse racing, though, and the fact that a last out maiden winner managed to win a Grade 2 means one of two things: either the La Derby really was full of bad horses, or By My Standards has figured things out.

Thoroughbreds are just like human athletes. They must develop and figure out the game in which they play. By My Standards may have done that. If he has, he could improve enough on Derby Day to win.