The Top 3 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends Everyone Needs To Know

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The Top 3 Preakness Stakes Betting Trends Everyone Needs To Know

Do you need an edge on your weekend horse racing bets on the 2015 Preakness Stakes? Then keep reading.

The Preakness Stakes posts this Saturday at 6:18 PM ET from Pimlico Raceway in Baltimore, Maryland and as is often the case, the Kentucky Derby winner is the prohibitive favorite entering the Preakness. That doesn’t change this year with American Pharoah being announced as the favorite at 4-5 odds during Wednesday’s post position drawing.

Event: 2015 Preakness Stakes
Date: May. 16, 2015 
Start Time: 6:18 PM ET 
Location: Pimlico Raceway, Baltimore, Maryland
TV Info: NBC
Stream: NBC Sports Live Extra

What Are The Top 3 Preakness Betting Trends You Should Know Before Saturday

Horses that win the Preakness ran in the Kentucky Derby

Bernardini won the Preakness after having not won the Kentucky Derby in 2006, but that year Derby winner Barbaro broke down in the race. Bernardini may not have won the Preakness if Barbaro hadn’t broken down. Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness in 2009 after having won the Kentucky Oaks, not the Kentucky Derby. But Curlin in 2007, Big Brown in 208, Lookin at Lucky in 2010, Shackelford in 2011, I’ll Have Another in 2012, Oxbow in 2013 and California Chrome last year all ran in the Kentucky Derby.

The horses likely entered into the Preakness Stakes this year who ran in the Derby a couple of weeks ago are winner American Pharoah, second place finisher Firing Line, third place finisher Dortmund, Carpe Diem, Materiality, and Danzig Moon.

The Kentucky Derby winner often times wins the Preakness Stakes

Since 2000, the Kentucky Derby winner has gone on to win the Preakness Stakes. That doesn’t sound like a strong trend, but in horse racing any trend that’s above 30% is a strong trend. The 6 horses that have won the Preakness after winning the Kentucky Derby since 2000 are:  War Emblem in 2002, Funny Cide in 2003, Smarty Jones in 2004, Big Brown in 2008, I’ll Have Another in 2012 and California Chrome in 2014. Kentucky Derby winners have gone on to win the Preakness Stakes since 2000 at a 43% success rate. That’s as strong as a trend as you’re going to find in horse racing.

Does American Pharoah have a shot to make it 7 out of the last 15? He does because the one thing that all 6 horses have in common is that they’ve been either early front-runners, like War Emblem, or pressers like Big Brown. Even I’ll Have Another, usually a closer, sat in fourth place in his Preakness win.

Once a Baffert trained horse wins the Kentucky Derby, it’s a shoo-in to win the Preakness

Bob Baffert’s first Kentucky Derby victory was in 1997 with Silver Charm. Silver Charm won a three-horse photo over Captain Bodgit and his main rival, Free House, in the 1997 Preakness Stakes. The next year, 1998, Baffert’s Real Quiet took home both the Kentucky Derby and the Preakness Stakes. In 2001, War Emblem won the Preakness Stakes after winning the Kentucky Derby.

American Pharoah easily won the Kentucky Derby on May 2 this year. The trend says that he should win the Preakness Stakes. This trend may or may not hold as much water as the other 2 trends, though, because American Pharoah’s biggest competition in the race happens to be another Baffert horse, Dortmund. Will Baffert shoot himself in the foot for a chance for the Triple Crown?  We shall see. 

2015 Preakness Stakes Morning Line Odds

Post time: 6:18 p.m. Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Purse: $1.5 million. Distance: 1 3/16 miles. TV: NBC. Radio: ESPN 680 in Louisville.

post position. horse (weight) jockey/trainer odds

1. American Pharoah (126) Espinoza/Baffert 4-5

2. Dortmund (126) Garcia/Baffert 7-2

3. Mr. Z (126) Nakatani/Lukas 20-1

4. Danzig Moon (126) Leparoux/Casse 15-1

5. Tale of Verve (126) Rosario/Stewart 30-1

6. Bodhisattva (126) McCarthy/Corrales 20-1

7. Divining Rod (126) Castellano/Delcaour 12-1

8. Firing Line (126) Stevens/Callaghan 4-1