3 Reasons Why California Chrome Will Lose The Belmont StakesNoah Williams
Will the 35-year Triple Crown drought end today at Belmont Park in Elmont, NY when California Chrome runs for the chance at becoming the 12th Triple Crown winner and first since Affirmed in 1978? Ten other runners will line up with Chrome today at 3pm EST to battle it out for the $1.5 million purse and to thwart the Triple Crown dreams of owners Perry Martin & Steve Coburn.
— Americas Best Racing (@ABRLive) June 7, 2014
The 2014 Belmont Stakes Purse of $1.5 million will be divided as follows:
- $800,000 to the winner,
- $280,000 to the second place finisher,
- $150,000 to the third place finisher,
- $100,000 to the fourth place finisher,
- $60,000 to the fifth place finisher,
- $45,000 to the sixth place finisher,
- $35,000 to the seventh place finisher and
- $30,000 to the eight place finisher.
Updated Belmont Stakes Morning Line Odds
- Medal Count (20-1)
- California Chrome (2-5; opening morning line was 3-5)
- Matterhorn (30-1)
- Commanding Curve (15-1)
- Ride On Curlin (12-1)
- Matuszak (50-1; opening morning line was 30-1)
- Samraat (20-1)
- Commissioner (30-1; opening morning line was 20-1)
- Wicked Strong (10-1; opening morning line was 6-1)
- General a Rod (30-1; opening morning line was 20-1)
- Tonalist (8-1)
Three Reasons Why California Chrome Will Lose The Belmont Stakes
More Horses = More Problems at The Belmont Stakes
It was 1977 when Seattle Slew beat seven horses, and before that it was Citation in 1948. No other Triple Crown winner in memory has been able to beat a field of more than 7. Is California Chrome up to the task?
- On average the last 11 Triple Crown winners have beaten 4.4 horses at the Belmont Stakes.
- The average number of horses in the races where there was a Triple Crown winner is 5.4.
- While the average number of horses running in in Triple Crown Belmont losses is 9.2 starters.
Eleven horses are expected to start today, which is the number of runners in failed Triple Crown bids by War Emblem, Real Quiet, Pleasant Colony and Kauai King.
Don’t Always Bet The Favorite At The Belmont
The last time a favorite won all three legs of the Triple Crown was in 1977 when Seattle Slew accomplished the near impossible. California Chrome is in position to repeat this feat today. The thoroughbred can also be the first horse to win all three three Triple Crown races as single-digit odds favorite. All winners in 2007 were less than 5-1.
California Chrome’s Opening Morning Line Odds Were:
- 5-2 at the Kentucky Derby
- 3-5 at the Preakness Stakes
- 2-5 at the Belmont Stakes
A Bet On The Long Shot Might Be Your Best Shot At The Belmont
Betting the longshot is what makes horse racing betting fun.
There is precedence that goes for the theory that a longshot will win today’s Belmont Stakes.
Now if California Chrome does lose, historical betting trends dictate that a longshot will beat him. Of the last five Belmont winners that thwarted a Triple Crown, four were at least 30-1. Overall, five of the last six Belmont winners have been at least 12-1.