2019 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

2019 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

It’s Belmont Stakes week with the draw on Tuesday at 5:30 p.m. ET. The race is on Saturday, June 8. Post time will be at approximately 6:38 p.m. ET.

2019 Belmont Stakes Odds & Picks

  • Tacitus +200
  • War of Will +275
  • Owendale +800
  • Everfast +900
  • Intrepid Heart +1250
  • Spinoff +1000
  • Global Campaign +1200
  • Master Fencer +750
  • Sir Winston +1500
  • Tax +1500
  • Joevia +3300

Belmont Stakes Betting Favorite: Tacitus +200

The Juddmonte Farms homebred appears well-suited to take the 1 ½ mile Belmont Stakes on Saturday, June 8. There aren’t many knocks. Before getting to the few knocks, let’s first go over the advantages.

Tapit sired Tacitus. Tapit has already produced 3 Belmont winners: Tonalist in 2014, Creator in 2016, and Tapwrit in 2017. It’s obvious that Tacitus will get the distance. Bill Mott trains Tacitus. Mott trained Country House to a Kentucky Derby win about a month ago. Mott also trained Cigar to become one of the very best horses of all time.

Finally, Tacitus ran great in the Kentucky Derby. He finished fourth, but he encountered all sorts of issues. What’s really impressive is how he kept fighting even though he had every right to give up, like what more than half the field did in the Derby.

So, then, is Tacitus a lock as the chalk? He’s not. The reason he isn’t a lock is because of the presence of the smart choice to win the Belmont Stakes. 

The Smart Belmont Stakes Pick: War of Will +275

War of Will impressively won the Preakness Stakes by providing the same run he tried to provide in the Kentucky Derby. He got into a good position early, pulled out, and then tried to go by the front runners.

War of Will accomplished the feat in the Preakness because no horse came out on him the way Maximum Security appeared to do in the Derby. What’s sort of sad after the Preakness is that if Maximum Security hadn’t gone out on War of Will, would the horse be trying for a Triple Crown on Saturday?

The Preakness winner isn’t as well bred as Tacitus. He’s got more tactical speed. He  also has the best turn of foot of any horse in the race, and he likes to dominate his opponents. Jump on the +275 today because by the middle of the week, he might be favored over Tacitus. 

The Belmont Long Shot Pick: Intrepid Heart +1250

Races are won and lost by small things that happen during the race. On paper, it looks like Intrepid Heart finished well behind Global Campaign and Sir Winston in the Peter Pan Stakes. He lost by 6 lengths.

He might have lost by 1 length, or half a length, or even had caught Global Campaign if not for a key moment in the stretch. Intrepid Heart had made a nice run to get into contention. As Sir Winston came towards him on the outside, his jockey tried to pull him past a backpedaling runner. Instead of moving outside of that runner, Intrepid Heart went to the inside.

By the time the jockey straightened him, the race was over. That was only Intrepid Heart’s third lifetime race. He ran faster, even after stumbling at the start and the weird move in the stretch, than he did in his second race. Don’t sleep on this underdog. Todd Pletcher trains and like Tacitus, he was sired by Tapit. Intrepid Heart can pull off the upset win.  

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