Almost every baseball bettor on the planet prefers the simplicity of the moneyline, but if you’re willing to put a little more elbow grease in to your summer action then I have some MLB run line betting tips for you to chew on.
Fort hose that are new to the run line, it’s the spread of a baseball game and it’s usually set at plus/minus 1.5 runs. In extreme cases, it will be a bit wider but for the most part that’s where the oddsmakers situate the run line. That’s the easy part. Let’s take a look at a standard betting line before I start dishing out MLB run line betting tips.
Cleveland Indians +1.5 -165 RL / +132 ML
Detroit Tigers: -1.5 +145 RL / -142 ML
The moneyline price on strong favorites is relatively steep. This particular line has the Tigers, one of the best teams in the league, priced at -142 to win straight up meaning that you have to bet $142 to win $100. Inversely, if you bet $100 on Cleveland you’ll win $132. That’s how the plus/minus portion works.
Notice the difference in the pricing with the run line (RL)? If the Tigers beat the Indians by two runs or more you can get a +145 return. The Indians, who are given a +1.5 advantage are -165 because they can win the bet by winning the game outright or losing by one run. Generally speaking, the run line dog is a safer bet so you have to risk more.
Now that you (hopefully) have a better understanding of this, let’s get to my favorite MLB run line betting tips!
MLB Run Line Betting Tips
Steer Clear Of The Blue Chip Teams
As I’ll get in to a little more detail later, public teams are the bane of your existence if you’re going to bet on baseball. On the moneyline, they’re a fine parlay stuffer or stand alone play but when people ask me for my MLB run line betting tips I also start by telling people to stay the hell away from the big name teams. This includes clubs like the Braves, Dodgers, Angels, Yankees, Red Sox, Giants and even the Jays. The small market team is always where the money’s at because the betting universe isn’t attacking them with volume. Give the little guy some love, why don’t ya?
Study the Moneyline for Run Line Picks
I don’t like saying that “this is the best way to bet bar none” but this is definitely one of the best MLB run line betting tips I could give you. The moneyline offers a good gauge of how tight a match up is. Keep an eye on underdogs in the -105 to +220 range with totals of less than 7.5. Those are usually the best games to take the run line on the outright underdog. I could explain why but it requires a bunch of graphs and metrics you don’t care about. You just want the meat right? You just got it.
Buy Low & Buy Often
Gamblers and handicappers love winning streaks, but baseball is a long winding grind and there is a ton of value in good teams mired in soft losing skids. Any team that is in the midst of a streak of between one to four losses will usually offer strong overall value on the run line. The public generally steers clear of a team that’s losing no matter who they are or who their opponent is. Hell, half of my free picks on baseball tell you to ride the hot hand when it comes to winning teams against the moneyline.
But losing teams that are listed as underdogs on the run line have an inherent value to gamblers because they’re not getting a lot of attention from oddsmakers or the general public. Books have more fear of winning teams, so that’s where they shine their spotlight. This is one of my harder MLB run line betting tips to follow because it takes some grudge work to track, but it’s definitely a hidden diamond in the rough when you’re scanning the daily lines for some profits.