2014 NBA Finals Game 1 Picks & Series PredictionsJosh Bailey
The San Antonio Spurs are back in the NBA finals for perhaps the final time before they being their rebuilding phase. The aging roster has looked strong all season long but they are just 4-9 SU in their last 13 games against the Miami Heat. NBA oddsmakers have them as the betting favorites entering the seven-game series against the defending champions this week.
San Antonio is going off at -120 in odds to win the 2014 NBA championship series, with Miami paying even money.
2014 NBA Championship Series Betting Odds
- Miami Heat – Even
- San Antonio Spurs -120
Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs Game 1 Details
- When: Thursday, June 5 at 9:00 PM ET
- Where: AT&T Center in San Antonio
- TV: ABC
First, here is a look at the NBA Odds for Game 1.
Game 1 NBA Finals Heat Vs. Spurs Odds
San Antonio Spurs -3.5
Miami Heat +150
San Antonio Spurs -170
Can the Spurs Win Game 1 and Cover the Spread?
Of course they can! San Antonio took Game 1 of last year’s NBA Finals against Miami 92-88 despite being on the road and they also blew the Heat out of the building in their first home game of the series, winning 113-77 at the AT&T Center in Game 3 a year ago.
The Spurs cashed in as a 5-point road dog in Game 1 and a 2-point home favorite in Game 3, so this point spread looks just about perfect at 3.5 points.
Now, let’s move on to the Over/Under Odds for Game 1.
NBA Finals Game 1 Over/Under Total Odds
Will the Over or Under play out for Total bettors in Game 1?
The first thing to know is that the Over hit for NBA gamblers in every home game the Spurs played against Miami in last season’s NBA Finals. Not only that, but the Over went 4- 3 in the seven-game finals a year ago, with four straight Overs occurring from Games 3-6. Still, I’d be a bit wary of this Game 1 O/U Total as no other Finals game between these two a year ago featured an O/U line of over 191.5 points.
Miami is 3-1 O/U in its last four games and 7-3 O/U in its L/10 games overall. San Antonio snapped a four-game Under streak in their Game 6 win over Oklahoma City the last time out to move to 6-4 O/U over their L/10 games. I like the Under in Game 1 with San Antonio with the Spurs holding their opponents to 89 points or less in three of their last four home games.
NBA Championship Finals Game 1 Total Odds
- Miami O/U 97.5
- San Antonio O/U 101
Which team will score over for their side in game 1?
I expect the San Antonio Spurs to play Over their O/U Total, but just narrowly. San Antonio has topped the century mark five times in their L/10 meetings against LeBron James and company. I like a final score of Spurs 102 Miami 94 if you want me to be exact about it.
NBA Championship Series Prices
- Miami Heat – Even
- San Antonio Spurs -120
Will the Spurs exact the revenge they’re seeking for last season’s NBA Finals loss to Miami ?
Yes they will…and remember you heard it here first! San Antonio (105.4 ppg) averages 3.2 points per game more than Miami this season while allowing just 0.2 points per game more than the Heat defensively.
— NBA (@NBA) June 2, 2014
The Spurs also average 4.8 more defensive rebounds per game than Miami does with their lack of quality big men while also pulling down 2.6 more offensive rebounds per contest than the Heat.
Miami had just three players on its roster this season that averaged double figures in scoring during the regular season and playoffs while San Antonio had a whopping six players average at least 10.2 points per game during the regular season and five players doing so over the course of this postseason. Of course, while San Antonio’s three-point threat, Danny Green is averaging just 9.3 points per game this postseason, basketball fans everywhere – along with the Miami Heat themselves, know that Green can heat up as fast as Vinny ‘The Microwave; Johnson ever did for the ‘Bad Boy’ Pistons in the 1990s. Besides, over his last seven games, Green has reached double digits in scoring five times while topping the 20-point plateau twice.
With the Spurs holding home court advantage – and this year’s NBA Finals back to its original 2-2-1-1-1 format, I think San Antonio really has an even bigger advantage than they would have under the now-defunct 2-3-2 format.
How Many Games Will The 2014 NBA Finals Go?
- Series Will End in 4 Games +850
- Series Will End in 5 Games +450
- Series Will End in 6 Games +350
- Series Will End in 7 Games +300
Series Will End in?
- Heat win 4-2 +300
- Heat win 4-3 +450
- Spurs win 4-1 +450
- Spurs win 4-2 +400
- Spurs win 4-3 +225
How long will this NBA Finals series last?
I’m going to cover both of the above series odds by saying that I like the Spurs to win this series in either five or six games at most. I know a lot of people are expecting another knock-down, drag-out, seven-game series, but I think the Spurs’ level of hatred and desire for revenge will make this NBA Finals matchup a bit shorter than everyone expects.