Toronto vs Miami Heat NBA Playoffs Series Pick

Betting The Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat Odds

NBA October Player of the Month Kevin Durant leads the Oklahoma City Thunder against the Miami Heat on Thursday, Dec. 3. The game starts at 7:30 pm ET and takes place at American Airlines Arena in Miami, FL.

A Closer Look At Oklahoma City Thunder at Miami Heat NBA Odds & My Betting Analysis

In most sports books, the NBA odds opened at Oklahoma City -2.5. The line has gone down to Oklahoma City -2. Expect the Heat to be +110 to +120 home dogs. The Over/Under opened at 199.5. It’s fluctuated between 199.5 and 200.5.

What: Oklahoma City Thunder (11-7) at Miami Heat (10-6)
When: Thursday, December 3, 2015
Kickoff: 7:00 PM ET 
Where: Miami, FL
Stadium: AmericanAirlines Arena
Spread: Thunder -2
Game Total: 200.5
Watch: TNT
Stream: TNT Overtime
Listen: Oklahoma City vs Miami

If You Are Betting On The Oklahoma City Thunder Odds

The Thunder has been on a tear. Oklahoma City was on a 4 game winning streak until losing 106 to 100 to Atlanta on Nov. 30. That game could have gone either way until the very end. Kevin Durant posted 25 points, 6 assists and 6 boards. Russell Westbrook had an exceptional line of 34 points, 7 assists and 11 boards. Both guys should be on their game on Thursday night. The extra rest between games definitely won’t hurt either star. The favorite is 9 and 4 ATS in the last 13 meetings between these 2.

“We’re not gonna shut Kevin Durant down, you’re not gonna shut Russell Westbrook down, only thing we can hope for is they have bad shooting nights,” Dwayne Wade told about OKC. “… It’s our job to make sure that we make it as tough as possible, play our defensive concepts and don’t give them too many easy baskets and play the way we play.”

The Oklahoma City Thunder is 11-7 straight up and 7-11 against the spread this season. They average 108.9.5 points (2nd), 47.7 rebounds (1st) and 21.7 assists (13th) per game this season while shooting 46.9% from the field (2nd) and 36.2% from three point land (9th).

If You Are Betting On The Miami Heat Odds

Miami has the best defense in the NBA. Sure, the Heat is ranked second in the NBA in points per game at 92.5. But, Miami allows only 40% from the field. When your opponents only shoot 40% from the field you can afford to score only 96.2 points per game. The Heat allows 31.8% from behind the three-point line. The defensive first philosophy has so far paid dividends for Miami. The Heat is a terrific 10 and 6 and in first place in the NBA Southeast Division.

“Before the season started, if you would’ve told me your team would be 10-6 in the first 16, I’m gonna take that,” told Bosh about the Heat season. “… We’re better than I thought we would be. That’s one thing that we understand. We do wanna win and can win ball games, but we’re an inexperienced group as far as together is concerned.”

The Miami Heat is 10-6 straight up and 7-9 against the spread this season. They average 96.3 points (27th), 44.8 rebounds (14th), 19.3 assists (26th)per game shooting 44.9% from the field (9th) and 31.2% from three points (25th).

Shooting guard Dwayne Wade averages 18.0 points, and 4.3 assists per game this season. Power Forward Chris Bosh averages 17.7 points and 9.1 rebounds per game. Center Hassan Whiteside adds 13.5 points and 11.5 rebounds.

Betting Trends Related To This Matchup:

  • Miami Heat 10-11 When Spread was -5.5 to -2.5 since last season
  • Miami Heat 2-13 O-U All Games this season
  • Miami Heat 2-8 O-U At Home this season
  • Miami Heat 1-6 O-U When Line is <195 this season
  • Miami Heat 1-2 O-U When Line was 191 to 194 this season
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 2-4 On Road this season
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 19-28 On Road since last season
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 6-8 As Favorite this season
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 2-3 O-U When Line was 212 to 215 this season
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 2-3 O-U vs Teams Averaging 99 to 102 PPG this season
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 10-14-1 O-U vs Teams Averaging 99 to 102 PPG since last season

The Thunder are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games vs. a team with a winning straight up record, 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games overall and 8-19 ATS in their last 27 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

The Heat is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games, 14-38-2 ATS in their last 54 games following a straight up win, 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite and 2-5 ATS in their last 7 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

Expert Pick & Final Score Prediction

Oklahoma City has been very good so far this season. But, they might run into some issues against the Heat on Thursday night. The problem that Oklahoma City could have is that the Heat’s 2 best players can match up with Durant and Westbrook. Guard Dwayne Wade can guard Westbrook and forward Chris Bosh can guard Durant. The rest of the Heat players are excellent at double-teaming when necessary or switching on picks. That should put the game into the Heat’s win column.

My final score prediction is Miami 97, Oklahoma City 94.


Posted in NBA