Final Four Betting Trends – The Last Leg of the BracketRachel Garcia
Where Final Four betting trends lean remarkably is against the spread, where underdogs are a spry 68.4%. That’s not rock solid because sometimes the matchup is a nightmare for the dog, and the stakes are often high enough to motivate the cream to rise to the top. Underdogs are not as strong of a play on the moneyline, even though they hold a ton of value in terms of payouts, with a 43.4% return in terms of straight upsets.
This is a very specific sample size to draw overwhelming conclusions from. Last year, Louisville decimated Duke 85-63 while Michigan “upset” Florida in a 3-vs-4 matchup. Last year’s Gators were slight overachievers compared to the dominance they’ve shown this season and the Wolverines seemed outright unstoppable. That being said, the Final Four is where any lingering momentum a team playing beyond its potential shows finally peters out.
Final Four Betting Odds To Win The National Championship
- Florida Gators -120
- Wisconsin Badgers +400
- Kentucky Wildcats +250
- UConn Huskies +550
Teams that have gone 4-0 ATS up until the Final Four have run in to a brutal 34.7% success rate against the betting line in those semi-final games. That’s a Final Four betting trend that you have to remember this season as well, especially with a ton of Cinderella’s looking to bloom this coming madness. A lot of that is just logic: teams that play above their ceiling come crashing down eventual. It’s simply hard to maintain a championship tempo without the right caliber of players.
Discussing seeds is a bit of a wash in this department. The lowest seed to advance to the Final Four has actually been the 11th seed which has seen LSU, George Mason and VCU advance that far. And none of them went any further. It simply comes down to talent at that point, which is why the above trend is so strong. The lower seeds who have pushed hard, rarely get through to the Final Four. They usually lose their luster as bracket busters the weekend before.
That means that the favorites are once again going to hold nominal value in terms of betting. In the past decade, the favorites have covered in nearly 64% of their games. However, the problem there in is that oddsmakers know that one of the habitual Final Four betting trends is the love of gamblers to hammer the favorites so there’s some built in cushion there.
Totals are a completely different scenario, and that is also a direct reaction how gamblers gamble. Everyone – from sharps to public bettors – tend to lean on the over even though games in the Final Four have a betting trend of only covering a total less than 38% of the time. That means that the best bet to usually make is to bet the moneyline favorite tied in with the under. Almost always, there’s a Final Four participant who completely falls apart and fails to do their part in pushing the point total.
Whatever you do when the Final Four finally hits us in a few weeks, remember that these trends are only guidelines. The bracket will unfold in a way that none of us predict, and at that point you have to bet the matchup. If you don’t feel like thinking too much after a sensory overload through the first four rounds, then take this sage Final Four betting advice: the trends favor the favorites and the under. It might actually just be that simple from a risk-reward standpoint.