2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Betting TrendsRachel Garcia
Consider this an Idiot’s Guide to the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney betting trends. Below you’ll find the best ways to bet the brackets regardless of the teams involved. For those interested, Selection Sunday is this weekend at 6pm EST and will reveal the who’s who of March Madness. These bracket betting trends exist for a reason and can either help fuel your eventual decision, or make it for you.
2014 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament Betting Trends
Round of 64
The best outright strategy for the first round is to pound the underdogs on the moneyline. If you take an even approach and bet all the games with the same amount of money, you’ll come out ahead according to NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney betting trends. The underdogs win 62.7% of the time in these games, which is amazing considering that most of the dogs will have bloated moneyline odds. They don’t just call it March Madness for the purpose of alliteration – it’s lunacy to think that the favorites are going to win all the time. It just doesn’t happen.
Once the clutter has been cleared out, the moneyline still holds weight but it’s in the other direction. This is the time when you need to start betting on the favorites since they win outright 88% of the time. You won’t be able to win as much money with less risk because that’s the way the numbers work, which means that you might have to take a leap of faith with…you guessed it…parlays. Parlayed favorites are the best way to attack the Sweet Sixteen portion of the bracket.
The Elite Eight is a freaking minefield so just watch your heads and try and get out of this one alive. Favorites get slammed against the betting line, and dogs are usually trampled straight up. So this is another round where the underdogs will have a bit of an easier time covering as spread plays, but the NCAA Men’s Tournament betting trends are also extremely matchup specific here. The basic rule is that the tighter the seed, the tighter the game. So if a third seed is matched up against an overachieving 12th seed, take the 3rd seed in a squash. How you bet these games ultimately comes down to you, but this is absolutely a point where you abandon the dance with the Cinderella’s.
To keep this simple, unless a team is seeded 8th or lower, you can bet the underdog freely in these ones. The underdog covers in 68.4% of these matchups, but programs that are playing waaaaaay past their potential get obliterated. All that NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney betting trends suggest is that if there are two strong teams in this matchup, and the spread is above -3.0 for either team, the dog has a great shot at covering. Strangely enough the best bet on the board is the UNDER, which has a golden return on 62% of the time.
To be honest, I don’t care what nearly three decades of NCAA Men’s Basketball Tourney betting trends tells you. By the time we get to a championship game, I’m playing the matchup. You know the teams by now. You know who’s better, and quite frankly the better team usually wins. And until we get there, I can’t hand out any advice either way in good conscience. Until then…